An Exciting And Incredibly Memorable Day For MIAC Women's Basketball - Four Teams Headed For The NCAA Tournament!

SMU had a nervous weekend but made it into the Field of 64 to become one of the four MIAC teams headed for the NCAA Tournament!  

Maybe the anticipation and tension wasn't there because we knew that the NPI rankings had the top 64 teams determined - including the four MIAC teams - but still, what a thrill it was to see the brackets unveiled a bit ago and to see the four conference teams that made it - Bethel, Concordia, GAC and SMU - get their opponents and destinations determined.  So, before we go any further, I'd first like to raise my glass of champagne and give a rousing toast to the Royals, Cobbers, Gusties and Cardinals!!!  Way to go!!!

So, for starters, both Bethel and Concordia will be hosting 1st/2nd round pods.  In the Bethel Pod, the Royals have a very interesting first-round matchup with Millsaps which is located in Jackson, MS and is a member of the SAA (Southern Athletic Association).  The other first-round matchup on Friday night at Robertson Center is a humdinger as well that pits Coe which is located in my old stomping grounds of Cedar Rapids, IA (two of my brothers played tennis at Coe and graduated from there as well) which won the ARC Championship Game against UW-Platteville out of the WIAC.

Meanwhile, at the Concordia Pod (where I plan to be) up in Moorhead is also setting up to be a potentially exciting four-team get-together as well.  The Cobbers will face UMAC Championship Game winner UW-Superior while the other first round game will feature highly-regarded and MWC Championship Game winner Ripon taking on UW-River Falls out of the WIAC.  That game will be a war for sure!  

GAC meanwhile is heading over to UW-Whitewater again (they were there back in 2018 when they made a run to the Sweet 16) where they'll have a very interesting matchup of their own as they'll face off against Chicago - a perennial powerhouse program out of the UAA.  The other first-round game at the Whitewater pod will feature host UW-Whitewater taking on Transylvania.  

The new kid on the block; SMU, is getting shipped over to another WIAC host at the Oshkosh (b'gosh) Pod.  Here, the Cardinals will take on a very good Wisconsin Lutheran team that won the NACC Championship Game and this game has the potential to be a barn-burner for sure.  The other first-round game will feature host UW-Oshkosh taking on Webster.  

I'll be breaking this all down more as the week progresses but right now, let's enjoy this unbelievable - and long-awaited moment for MIAC Women's Basketball.  How cool is this?!  

Oh, here's the URL for the released brackets for the Field of 64.  Let's get it on!

https://www.d3hoops.com/playoffs/women/2026/bracket

 

  

Sunday Night Update And A Look At The Bigger Picture - Looks Like An Exciting Time For MIAC Women's Basketball! 3-1-26

The Field of 64 is set and this time, the MIAC has FOUR teams primed to have their names called Monday afternoon beginning at 1:30 PM.  Get the champagne ready and be ready to raise your glasses to Bethel, Concordia, GAC and SMU!     

So I wanted to get something out on this Sunday night as the last day of conference playoff championship games wrapped up.  Going into the MIAC Championship Game yesterday, we knew that there were at least three teams from the MIAC that were certain to receive bids into the NCAA Tournament - Concordia, Bethel and GAC.  Bethel, of course, received the conference's AQ with their win over Concordia.  The Cobbers as of yesterday morning (Saturday 2-28) were at #10 in the NPI rankings while the Royals were #17.  With Bethel's win over Concordia, the Royals saw their NPI ranking shoot from #17 all the way up to #13 so "Herbie" was indeed correct when he told me afterward that they most definitely expected to be in a position to host.  Concordia meanwhile did not fall precipitously as some may have feared; only down to #12 which is safely within the top 16 teams so the Cobbers are still in excellent position to host.  

The big uncertainty meanwhile has swirled around SMU's chances and since their loss to Concordia this last Thursday night (2-26) in the semifinal round, their hopes of being able to receive one of the 21 at-large bids seemed, well, uncertain at best.  At one point yesterday morning (Saturday 2-28), their NPI ranking was at #39 which seemed to have them positioned to get that very last at-large bid.  However, there were still a number of moving pieces still in play as of this morning with the remaining conference championship games to be played and possible "bid thieves" that could potentially steal that at-large bid that SMU was desperately trying to hang onto.  In fact, it looked as if the Cardinals' hopes might've gone up in smoke at one point this afternoon when TCNJ knocked off William Paterson in the NJAC Championship Game.  However, from subsequent posts on X by Scott Peterson (@scott_peterson4), my initial fears of SMU's demise proved to be premature (thankfully) and, if you take a look at the latest NPI rankings that were released earlier this evening, you'll see that the Cardinals are indeed still at #39 which allows them to secure that last at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament.  You can bet that Head Coach Courtney Shelton, her staff and her team must've been sweating bullets big time earlier today but they can now all heave a collective sigh of relief and look forward to an exciting Selection Monday tomorrow.  Congratulations indeed to SMU!!

And this leads to the bigger point that I was making over the last few years when the MIAC was only getting one team into the Dance because of the idiotic round-robin conference schedule that allowed you to play only three non-conference games.  It was bad enough when we were having to deal with an equally-idiotic regional ranking system that thankfully died a swift death.  But in the new world with NPI, coaches and administrators finally realized that the MIAC had to adapt to the new reality that we're now living in and adjust the conference schedule that allows teams to schedule more games against non-conference teams; specifically against those that have reasonably high NPI rankings that allows more teams to have a chance to position themselves to get into the NCAA Tournament and now we FINALLY see the rewards being reaped.  And what this does in turn is that it gives the conference much more visibility and much more credence than it ever had before and you have to believe that this is also a big boost for all the schools in the conference in terms of recruiting.  How cool is it now to see the MIAC positioned to get FOUR teams into the Dance - especially when you see across the River where the WIAC - for the second year in a row - is positioned to once again get five teams into the NCAA Tournament.  Now the MIAC is FINALLY positioned to run with the big dogs and it's high time if you ask me.  

So, the URLs to not only the current NPI rankings but also the D3 Hoops website that lists the 64 teams are listed below.  The only things we don't know right now are the brackets and actual pairings but that will all come out tomorrow afternoon (Monday 3-2) at 1:30 PM Central time.  

I don't know about you but this is ALWAYS my favorite time of the year.  😉 

https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/48990

https://www.d3hoops.com/playoffs/women/2026/projected-womens-bracket

MIAC Championship Game - Bethel vs Concordia 2-28-26

Operating from the third-seed didn't faze the Bethel Royals as they clamped down on Concordia to claim the program's second MIAC Championship Game title in Moorhead on Saturday.

 Hard to believe that it was 50 degrees when I left my place in the Northwest Suburbs early yesterday afternoon but as my trek on US Highway 10 and the BNSF's Staples Sub lengthened, a weather front passed through that brought sharper colder temperatures and some snow to boot.  Thankfully no issues travel-wise and the BNSF cooperated with some train action as well.  After getting a good supper and lodging on the Fargo-side of town, I had some extra spare time late this morning to get a little "foaming" in at Moorhead Jct before making the short trek over to cavernous Memorial Auditorium on the campus of Concordia College for today's long-awaited MIAC Championship game between visiting Bethel and host Concordia.  The Royals, coming into the MIAC Playoffs as the number-three seed, had to get this juncture the hard way but that didn't seem to deter them one bit as they demolished St. Scholastica in the Quarterfinal round on Tuesday night before taking down GAC in St. Peter on Thursday night.  The Cobbers as the number-one seed got here the hard way too but in a much different matter as they had to fight back from a 21-point deficit against SMU on Thursday night before rallying to win in wild fashion.  These two teams had met twice in the regular season with Bethel taking both contests but when you get to this stage, you might as well throw past results out the window.

And Concordia certainly seemed to be of that mindset from the opening tip as senior point guard Taylor Safranski found a gap in the Royals defense and used a burst of speed to shoot through  that gap for an easy lay-up at the 9:49 mark of the opening period and a short, turnaround jumper by strong sophomore forward Maya Metcalf at the 9:05 mark had the Cobbers up 4-2.  Bethel would come right back and wipe that lead away on their subsequent possession as senior point guard Colette Duininck would bury a cold-hearted "3" from the left top area at the 8:41 mark but Concordia was able to steady the ship at this early point and launch a 9-2 push.  Slender junior forward Genevieve Gruba would start this run when she slithered into the paint for a score at the 8:15 mark and a short time later at the 7:33 mark, senior guard Molly Musland would make a hard drive for a lay-up that also drew a foul and her ensuing "and one" got the Cobber lead to 9-5.  Musland would again get sent to the charity stripe after getting fouled at the 7:04 mark and the former LaMoure, ND standout would cash in on both attempts and at the 5:50 mark, Musland would come through again as she was able to knock down a short, turnaround jumper in the lane that now had Concordia up 13-7 but that push that had the home crowd going failed to faze the Royals as they finished off this first period with a surprising 9-0 run.  Slender junior forward Cally Peterson would connect on a lay-up to start this run with 4:51 left and a short time later the former St. Francis standout would come through again for her team as she would snare an offensive rebound of her own miss for a putback with 4:11 left and two free throws by Duininck after she was fouled with 2:23 left had this game leveled at 13.  Then Duininck; the former Central Minnesota Christian standout who helped slay the Gusties just two nights ago down in St. Peter with her three-point prowess, would again unleash terror from behind the arc as she buried a casually cruel bomb from the left corner area with 1:08 left that put Bethel out in front 16-13 that ended the scoring in this topsy-turvy first period.

The Cobbers started the second period determined to get momentum back in their favor.  Senior guard Taya Jeffrey would get things going with a pretty jumper from the free throw line area at the 9:00 mark and a tough score in the paint by Metcalf at the 7:53 mark pushed Concordia back out in front 17-16.  At the 6:18 mark, Jeffrey, the former Albert Lea standout, would strike again with a smart drive into traffic and tough finish that got the Cobbers a 19-16 lead but Bethel was continuing to be a very uncooperative guest and they quickly unleashed a 9-2 run in response.  Peterson would quickly come to the forefront again as well with back-to-back three-point bombs - one from the top of the key at the 5:50 mark that tied the game and then again from the top of the key; this time off of an inbounds pass with 4:57 left - that now had the Royals up 22-19.  With 4:09 left, surprising sophomore reserve guard Alaina Bonacquista would bang home a "3" of her own from the right corner that capped this latest bombardment of the city of Moorhead making it a 25-21 ballgame before Concordia could shore up its defenses.  Musland would connect on a lay-up with 3:45 left that got the Cobbers back to within a single possession and a three-point bomb by lanky sophomore forward Kaia Gack from the left top area with 2:59 left cut the deficit down to one at 27-26.  Bethel would get a bit more breathing room when sophomore reserve point guard Kenzie Lundeen used some deft touch to get a pretty one-handed floater in the lane to go down with 2:37 left but Concordia was quick to counterattack as speedy sophomore reserve point guard Kaitlyn Rohloff would make a quick dart into the lane for a finish with 2:13 left that again had the deficit down to one at 29-28 and with :13.4 left, Safranski in sly fashion stole the ball near midcourt from the Royals Duininck and tried to race in for a lay-up and although the attempt was foiled, the former Fargo Davies standout was fouled in the process and did get two charity stripe shots to go down out of the deal that allowed the Cobbers to take a slim 30-29 lead into the locker room at the halftime intermission in a game that was thus far marked by some unusual and wild momentum swings.  A quick check of the halftime box score showed that Bethel did have an edge on the glass with 22 rebounds to Concordia's 17 but perhaps more importantly the Royals thus far had shot 5-12 from behind the arc at a 41.7% clip and 3-5 for 60% in the second period alone while the Cobbers so far were only 1-7 from downtown for 14.3%.  That plus the fact that the tempo of the game seemed to slightly favor the Royals thus far made Concordia's one-point halftime lead look even more perilous.  

Things would still bounce back and forth between these two squads once the third period was underway.  Bethel would manage to push out in front a 31-30 when Duininck got a pair of free throws to go down after getting fouled at the 9:12 mark but the Cobbers would soon follow suit and take the lead right back on two free throws by Gruba after she was fouled at the 8:56 mark.  The Royals would forge ahead again when junior forward Emily Erickson connected on a short, one-handed floater in the lane at the 8:41 mark but this game was put on even terms at 33 a piece when Concordia's Jeffrey got one free throw to go down after getting fouled at the 8:17 mark.  But it was here where Bethel made its first significant move of the day that had the Cobbers on their heels with a key 9-2 run.  Back-to-back three-point bombs - one by slender senior combo guard/forward Ali Born from the top of the key at the 8:01 mark and the other by Lundeen from the right top area at the 6:45 mark - suddenly had the Royals up by six  at 39-33.  Concordia's Jeffrey would get the deficit trimmed down a bit when she knocked down a pair of free throws after getting fouled at the 5:47 mark but then Bethel's Lundeen would inflict additional pain with another three-point bomb - this one from the left top area at the 5:28 mark - that now pushed the Royals lead to seven at 42-35.  The Cobbers would try and counter as Gack would first drain a "3" of her own from the left top area at the 5:07 mark and Gack's short jumper in the lane off the glass with 4:09 left brought Concordia back to within a single possession down 42-40 but Bethel was quick to respond.  Erickson would come through with back-to-back scores as she would first get a routine score in the paint with 3:55 left and would then follow that up with a short, turnaround jumper that gave the Royals some extra breathing room with a 46-40 advantage.  Undaunted, the Cobbers would try again.  Junior reserve guard Alexa Snesrud would first knock down a jumper from the left wing area with 2:54 left and would follow that up with a pair of free throws after getting fouled with 2:28 left that again had Concordia back to within a single possession down 46-44 and presumably in good shape again.  But unfortunately for the home crowd Bethel had more in store in the final stages of this third period.  Peterson would maneuver into the paint for a score with 2:00 left and with 1:16 left Erickson would use a burst of speed to connect on a lay-up that restored the six-point lead at 50-44 and had the Cobber faithful in the stands grasping for hope.  

Certainly a six-point deficit was far from insurmountable; especially considering what transpired just the other night against SMU and the fact that Concordia kept its opponent scoreless for nearly the first four minutes of the fourth period arguably left a significant window of opportunity available but unfortunately for the Cobbers, they not only missed out on three golden scoring opportunities but also had a key turnover plague their hopes as well.  Concordia finally ended this drought when Gack got a jumper from the right wing area to go down at the 6:54 mark and the Royals efforts appeared to take a hit at the 6:02 mark when Erickson took an inadvertent shot to the head and had to retreat to the bench as she apparently had a contact lens that popped out.  This allowed the Cobbers to get right back to within a single possession as Kaitlyn Rohloff used a burst of speed to connect on a lay-up at the 5:40 mark that cut Bethel's lead to 50-48.  The Royals got their lead to five when All-American fifth-year senior reserve forward Elly Schmitz snared an offensive rebound for a putback that drew a foul in the process and her ensuing "and one" at the 5:15 mark made it a 53-48 game.  But right back came Concordia on their subsequent possession as Safranski would bury a "3" from the right wing area with 4:50 left and had the Cobbers in prime position again down just 53-51 and a tough score in the paint by Metcalf with 3:19 left kept Concordia within a single possession down 55-53 and with a ton of time left to finally get the table turned in this game.  But missed shots and turnovers would haunt the Cobbers at the most critical juncture of this game and this allowed Bethel to get just enough separation exactly when they needed it to seal the deal on this one.  Erickson would get into the paint for a score with 3:03 left that grew the lead to 57-53 and also had the Royals in the bonus as well but with 1:49 left, Concordia had another gift presented to it when Gack was fouled but the former Sartell standout couldn't get either free throw attempt to cooperate that would've at least made it a one-possession game again.  And the Royals made them pay dearly for that as Erickson would get fouled with 1:24 left and she would get both free throws to go down which made it a six-point game at 59-53.  The Cobbers would get the deficit cut down to four when Metcalf again muscled into the paint for a score with 1:02 left but now they desperately needed to get a stop of some sort just to have a chance to get it back to a single possession again.  That small window appeared briefly when Bethel's Duininck; who was fouled with :43.2 left, was unable to get either free throw attempt to go down.  Concordia Head Coach Kim Wagers would then call a thirty-second timeout in hopes of dialing up a sure-fire score but two shot attempts on the ensuing possession failed to find their intended mark.  Royals Head Coach Jon Herbrechtsmeyer would then take a thirty-second timeout after his squad secured a steal and with :14.1 left in regulation, Erickson would get one free throw to go down after getting fouled that made it a five-point game at 60-55.  There was still one last wisp of hope left for the Cobbers but the hope soon vaporized when Musland's three-point bomb attempt went awry with :09.8 left.  Bethel's Duininck would get fouled with :08.1 left and there were no mistakes made this time by the seasoned veteran as she got both free throw attempts to go down and although the Cobbers' Wagers would burn another timeout, the damage had already been done as the Royals secured the MIAC Championship Game title with a 62-55 victory.

With the Memorial Auditorium's PA announcer urging fans to take it easy after the final buzzer and The Eagles hit tune playing on the loudspeakers with Glenn Frey urging fans to do just that, the message seemed lost on Concordia players afterward just as it had been last year after they were bounced in the Quarterfinal round.  But at this particular juncture, the pain of coming so close to achieving their goal of winning a MIAC Championship Game title on their home floor and coming up just short made the pain even more acute - especially when you consider that the seniors on this team had to endure MIAC Championship Game losses to GAC in both 2023 and in 2024.  Fortunately, some of that initial pain ebbed with the knowledge that they're not only firmly in the NCAA Tournament but with a high NPI ranking as well, they're in excellent position to host a 1st/2nd round NCAA Pod at Memorial Auditorium starting next Friday evening.  Meanwhile, with all the hoopla going on the floor with the Bethel team and coaches celebrating their latest conquest and preparing to cut down the nets, I was finally able to catch up first with the Royals Erickson who was understandably jubilant after this win.  I asked Erickson what the mindset was for her and her teammates coming into this game today.  "We knew this was going to be a tough game today because we've played them two times before and both of those games went down to the wire just like this one did and I think we came into this game knowing that we had nothing to lose because they were seeded higher than us; they're ranked higher than us.....We can just go out and play our hearts out and this was going to be a great opportunity.  Props to them (Concordia) because they're a really good team......We just knew it was going to be a long four quarters of basketball; it wasn't going to be decided in two quarters or three quarters like previous games like it was against St. Scholastica.....And I think we came in knowing that this is playoff basketball and that anything can happen.  And I think that this was just a great testament to our resilience and to the depth of our bench.....We had some really key shots from some of our bench players and we've just been practicing all year for this moment and it's just amazing."  I then mentioned to Erickson about the physicality aspect of this game because that was going to come to the forefront at some point in this game and that I thought that the Royals weathered the storm reasonably well on this front today.  "Yeah....They (Concordia) have two of the best post players in the nation (Metcalf and Gack); they're both very good and we knew that from having gone up against them two other times this season.  I think that's why in the first half we kind of shied away from the physicality - especially inside because you knew they were going to shot block and Metcalf did but we were able to make the adjustment of doing double moves like "open under" to get them moving because standing still is going in favor of the defense especially with Metcalf."  I also mentioned to Erickson that it's got to be a good feeling knowing that your spot in the NCAA Tournament is assured and now they have a chance to rest up a bit, refuel and get ready for Selection Monday.  "Yeah, it was a really long week (this last week)....We had three really good games where we gave it all every single day.  I mean, we had to go to practice the next day (after a game on the previous night) and that's not we usually have because normally after hard games we get a day off where we get to stretch, we get to rehab, stuff like that.  But each game this week is not guaranteed and I'm just so proud of my teammates so thankful for our coaching and just how we've been able to move together as a group of girls and this very moment is what we've practiced all year for.....It's a long time from October and November and it's just so amazing to see all that hard work come to fruition."  

I was also able to catch up with Bethel's Herbrechtsmeyer afterward who was quite happy and proud with his team's effort on this day.  I mentioned first that I thought that his team's defense on this day really carried the day and paved the way for ultimate victory.  "Well, it always does......We talked at the start of the fourth quarter.....We had wrested the lead away from them and we always talk about defense and toughness are going to carry the day.  And I'll be honest, they're really, really good.  Maya Metcalf is a load.....The freshman guard (Kaitlyn Rohloff) is really good.  They're a really good basketball team and maybe a second weekend NCAA Tournament team.  We just happen to match up to them really well.  Our size can give Metcalf more trouble than any other team in the league and frankly more trouble than most other Division IIIs and that's why, in spite of the losses that they've suffered this year; three of them to us, it's our defensive ability to guard the rim that carried the day."  I also brought up the idea that I thought that Bethel shot the ball really well on this day (a carryover from the previous games with St. Scholastica and GAC perhaps?) - especially from downtown and I wasn't necessarily counting on them to do that on this day but players like Duininck and Peterson really stepped up and delivered some daggers in this game.  " 'Coco' and 'Cal' did but we had a number of players shooting well.....Kenz Lundeen; the scouting report says you can let her shoot and she makes two threes tonight......We're peaking at the right time and our struggles in November were largely because our guards weren't necessarily understanding when and where their three-point shots should come.  We're in month five of the season now.  Everybody understands what a good shot is from a bad shot.  And when you're supposed to take a shot and what shots are the 'good' ones for them.  That leads to high-percentage.  I guess high-scoring at 62 compared to the 52 the first time we played them here."  I then touched on the road ahead with Herbrechtsmeyer - specifically Selection Monday and the upcoming NCAA Tournament and where they might be heading.  "We plan to host" he deadpanned.  "We were number seventeen in the NPI rankings this morning and we just beat a team in front of us and with our bonus, we have a chance to move into the top sixteen.  The NCAA had better reward that with hosting.  We put in a bid.  We're planning to play at home."  

I also was able to catch up with Concordia's Wagers who was obviously disappointed with the outcome but was also managing to keep a stiff upper lip with Selection Monday and the NCAA Tournament along with a likely hosting of a 1st/2nd round pod as well.  But Wagers was in agreement with my assessment that Bethel's defense on this day was the difference-maker - particularly in the second half.  "Yeah, we couldn't get anything from an execution standpoint offensively and that's what they do - they're a defensive team and they really disrupt timing and they kind of took us out of what we do."  I mentioned to Wagers as well that her team simply seemed unable to find that one "big" bucket or big "3" that might've somehow turned the tide for them when they needed it most.  "Yeah, they made a couple of big shots - especially late in the second half and we just couldn't get them to fall which happens when the ball just doesn't bounce your way and it's frustrating.......But I'm super-proud of our group and our regular season and it's really fun to see this big crowd here and it's disappointing that we didn't play better but we're excited because we still have basketball to play."  I also asked Wagers about the road ahead - Selection Monday and the upcoming NCAA Tournament where Concordia should still be in an excellent position to host a 1st/2nd round pod at home in Memorial Auditorium.  "Yeah, we're exited either way.....The kids kind of love the travel part of it too" she added with a smile.  More than anything, Wagers and her staff along with the team are just excited at the prospect of playing whether it's at home or somewhere else and, just as important for Wagers, she gets to enjoy at least another week with her team.

The thing for me when I look back on this game (and trust me, I had plenty of time to ponder things on the long drive back down US Highway 10 and the BNSF's Staples Sub mainline) is that even though it was Bethel's defense that carried the day for them, there were still windows of opportunity left for Concordia that might've somehow propelled them over the top.  Down by six at 50-44 to start the fourth period, the fact that the Cobbers held the Royals scoreless for nearly four minutes was big but they HAD to find a way to narrow the gap in this particular time period to at least a single possession that would've at the very least expanded their options down the home stretch.  And the fact that the Cobbers did finally crawl back to within a single possession right around the midway point was another window of opportunity that was there again for them and once again, they never could find that one big bucket - specifically a three-point shot - that could've turned this game on a dime.  And the last thing I want to do on here is pile on any one specific player (and I'm not doing that here either, btw) but those two missed free throw attempts by Gack with 1:49 left were a killer as Concordia was unable to close within a single possession again.  What I'm trying to point out here is that Bethel and the way they play defense can just make your margin for error so small when everything's on the line late in the game and that's precisely what happened to Concordia here and you simply have to tip your cap to the Royals and their defense.  And, as Herbrechtsmeyer said, they may indeed be peaking at precisely the right time.  

And it's even more painful from a Concordia standpoint when you look at the final box score on this one.  Beyond the fact that the Cobbers had the edge in bench points at 20-16 (and even that edge was more or less negated as time wore on) there isn't a whole helluva lot to cheer about.  Bethel owned the boards by a 39-33 count and the Royals also had a whopping 13-4 edge in those all-important "second chance" points.  The Cobbers were also guilty of 14 boo-boos on this day which isn't necessarily a lot but in this type of a bloodbath, those turnovers took their toll.  Inevitably, you also have to point to the three-point shooting aspect and it just wasn't happening for Concordia on this day as they finished going 3-11 from downtown for 27.3%.  And not that Bethel was shooting at a torrid pace from downtown either as they went 8-23 for 34.8% - they didn't have to.  And it wasn't so much the three-point shots that they did make either.  Rather, it's WHEN they made them.  

Balanced scoring also had a big role in Bethel's success on this day as Erickson - once again - always finds a way to show up in the biggest moments and her 15 points paced the Royals on this day but she had plenty of help too as Peterson was right behind with her 14 points and Duininck was spectacular at times on this Saturday as she finished with 12 points.  Gack paced the Cobber attack with her 10 points.

Friday Morning Update On The Bigger Picture And A Look At Saturday's MIAC Championship Game

Simulated NCAA Tournament Field and possible bracket breakdowns (courtesy of Scott Peterson)

 So I wanted to provide something of an update on the bigger picture here this morning after last night's wild action in the MIAC Playoff Semifinals that saw Bethel oust GAC and then Concordia's improbable comeback from a twenty-one point deficit in the third period to overcome SMU.  Down in St. Peter, the Royals were simply too strong down the stretch and their experience paid off as they downed the Gusties 73-66.  In the second game, the Cardinals appeared to have things firmly in control with a twenty-one point lead early in the third period before the Cobbers; behind sophomore forward Maya Metcalf and freshman reserve guard Kaitlyn Rohloff led a surge late in the third period and throughout the fourth as Concordia punched its ticket to the MIAC Championship Game; their third in four years and now will be hosting this game for the first time since the 2012-13 season.  

So what does this mean for the MIAC in terms of the bigger picture - specifically the NCAA Tournament?  Well, you can now pretty much book three teams - Concordia, Bethel and GAC into the Big Dance.  Now, SMU on the other hand could very well be left on the outside looking in on all of this; not so much because of the fact that they fell short last night but rather because of a big result elsewhere - specifically DePauw's huge upset of Denison in one of the NCAC semifinal playoff games last night that put the Tigers, who were on the outside looking in before last night's game, firmly into an at-large bid with a big rise in their NPI ranking that might've otherwise been safely secured by SMU.  Keep in mind that there's still a lot of moving pieces in action both today, tonight and tomorrow but as badly as I would love to see the Cardinals get in, the late slump they had in the last week of the regular season along with two "bad" losses to both St. Kate's and CSB earlier might be too much to overcome in this case.  We'll see.

In any event, this sets up the third meeting tomorrow (Saturday 2-28) between Bethel and Concordia - this one for all the marbles in the MIAC Championship Game.  The Royals won the two previous meetings - the first in Moorhead in a non-conference setting back on 11-25 and then at home in Robertson Center a little more than a month ago on 1-24 - both of which were very tough, hard-fought games that were very close.  Undoubtedly, the Cobbers cannot afford to get themselves into a significant hole like they did last night and whenever you play Bethel - I don't care who you are - you've gotta take care of the rock and you've also gotta box out and you've gotta rebound.  I will say that I think that Concordia is better-equipped to take down the Royals than GAC was simply because of their depth and the physicality/size aspects.  But let's also remember too that Bethel's been here before and they know what this is all about and the Cobbers are going to have to bring their "A" game with them tomorrow if they want to hoist their first MIAC Playoff title since 2011.  

Will be heading up US Highway 10 and the BNSF's Staples Sub mainline this afternoon to Fargo-Moorhead.  This should be a great game tomorrow.  As always, please feel free to fire away with thoughts.  

Thursday Afternoon Update On The Bigger Picture - 2-26-26

 

Simulated NCAA Tournament Field For Thursday 2-26-26 (courtesy Scott Peterson)

So here we are on semifinal Thursday of the MIAC Women's Basketball Playoffs with two great games on tap tonight - Bethel at GAC in the 5:00 PM slot and SMU at Concordia in prime time at 7:00 PM.  Both of these contests should be absolute battles and you know I'm going to be watching both games online.  The winners tonight will meet in the MIAC Championship Game on Saturday at 3:00 PM at the remaining highest-seed location.  

So, while the St. Scholastica - Bethel game that I covered on Tuesday night was a blowout with the Royals advancing, the battle down in Winona on this same night was an absolutely wild affair that I had a feeling it would be - just not in the way it went down.  At the end of the third period, the Pipers seemed to have all but punched their ticket to tonight's semifinal action with a hefty 52-32 lead on the Cardinals and the magical season for SMU that seemed to have so much promise appeared to be going up in flames.  But someone forgot to inform this young Cardinals team of the dire straits they were in and instead they went on an incredible 27-0 blitz in the fourth period; snaring victory from the jaws of almost certain defeat as they advanced to tonight's semifinal action with a 59-52 victory in the unlikeliest fashion.  And, as you can see from the simulated NCAA Tournament bracket (above), SMU is clearly back in the picture for an at-large bid as their NPI ranking took a significant spike after the win.  Now, to be sure, the Cardinals are not a "sure thing" just yet; there's still a lot of moving pieces in a very fluid situation and while a loss to Concordia tonight doesn't necessarily erase them from the picture, the Cardinals will have to keep a wary eye on some of these other bubble teams - particularly out East - to see how they fare tonight and this weekend.  But personally I think the Cardinals will find a way to get in and wouldn't that be incredible to see the MIAC get FOUR teams into the Dance?  

Now, closer to home we know that the WIAC is still going to be a five-bid league and the WIAC Championship Game is set for Friday night as UW-Oshkosh (b'gosh) will host UW-La Crosse with the winner getting the conference's automatic bid.  But what's interesting here is that should the Eagles somehow find a way to pull off a massive upset, that COULD catapult them into one of the top 16 seeds whereby they would get an opportunity to host a 1st/2nd Round NCAA pod at their facility.  We'll just have to see how that all plays out.  Here in the MIAC, you'll see from above where Concordia is in an excellent position right now as a projected number-eleven seed where they would certainly be in position to host a 1st/2nd round NCAA pod at home in Moorhead.  But what happens if they should stumble either tonight or in the MIAC Championship Game?  That's a very good question.  Meanwhile, the ARC appears to be a one-bid league and there's two semifinal games tonight back home in Iowa as well (Luther at Wartburg and Buena Vista at Coe).  And the UMAC will also be a one-bid league but the number-one seed - Bethany Lutheran - was upended at home last night by North Central so now it will all come down to the UMAC Championship Game on Saturday up on the frigid shores of Gitche Gumee with the Rams taking on UW-Superior.  

As always, please feel free to fire away with thoughts.  I hope to be able to provide another update sometime tomorrow.  

MIAC Quarterfinal Playoff Game - St. Scholastica vs Bethel 2-24-26

Bethel's Emily Erickson's 25 points on this night helped the Royals bag a big MIAC Quarterfinal Playoff win and advance into Semifinal action on Thursday night. 

Made a quick run over to Robertson Center on the campus of Bethel University on this early Tuesday evening to take in one of the two MIAC Quarterfinal Playoff games happening on this night - this particular one between visiting St. Scholastica and host Bethel.  The Saints had enjoyed the period between late January and early February that saw them win five out of six games but the home stretch of the regular season had not been kind to them as they went up against three of the top teams in the conference and went 0-3 in the process and they knew full and well that they'd have their work cut out for them on this night with another top tier opponent.  The Royals meanwhile had righted the ship after the shocking home loss to Hamline 2-11 and closed out the regular season on a three-game win streak and seemed to have a bit of a head of steam coming into the MIAC Playoffs.  Robertson Center was rocking before tip-off as both schools had a large and very vocal student section ready to make a ruckus.

And both teams definitely gave their respective student sections reasons to erupt in the early moments of the opening period.  Bethel would strike first as senior point guard Colette Duininck would find a gap and use a burst of speed to connect on a lay-up at the 9:41 mark and a short time later, the Saints would counter as strong sophomore guard Ava Haus got a short pull-up jumper to go down at the 8:57 mark that leveled the contest.  But St. Scholastica couldn't have possibly prepared for the avalanche that they would soon run into as the Royals ripped off a 19-2 blitz.  Duininck would drain a "3" from the right top area at the 8:36 mark to start this run and two free throws by junior forward Emily Erickson after she was fouled at the 7:31 mark had Bethel up 7-2.  A short time later, senior combo guard/forward Ali Born would bury a "3" from the left wing area that expanded the lead to 10-2 and Saints Head Coach Jason Schmitz; immediately sensing that his squad was running into a brick wall, called a thirty-second timeout to try and avert disaster.  But the Royals with their pressure defense and trapping, weren't in any kind of mood to let their opponent off the hook so easily as they continued with this initial onslaught.  Erickson would bang home a "3" from the right top area at the 5:47 mark that made it a 13-4 ballgame and then sophomore reserve guard Alaina Bonacquista got in on the fun with a lay-up with 4:44 left.  Fifth-year All-American senior reserve forward Elly Schmitz would connect on a lay-up with 4:13 left that made it 17-4 and senior combo guard/forward Rosalie Penke would join in on the fun as well with a tough drive and finish with 3:40 left to make it 19-4.  Lanky junior forward Cally Peterson would cap this initial burst with a lay-up in transition with 3:02 left that pushed the lead to 21-4 before St. Scholastica could put a band-aid on the bleeding on one free throw by junior reserve guard Gabby Voigt after she was fouled behind the arc with 2:39 left.  The Saints would add another small amount to their ledger when willowy junior forward Kloey Lind was able to slither into the paint for a score with 1:59 left but then Bethel was able to close out this first period on a 5-2 burst.  Bonacquista would drain a "3" from the right corner area with 1:43 left and Peterson would snare an offensive rebound for a putback with :45.2 left that put the Royals up 26-7.  St. Scholastica would get some small solace on a short jumper in the lane by Lind with :13.2 left but trailing 26-9, this was the exact opposite of where the Saints wanted to find themselves at this particular juncture.

And things certainly didn't get any better for St. Scholastica once the second period got underway as they had to absorb a 6-1 push by the home team from the outset.  Erickson would muscle into the paint for a score at the 9:11 mark and then the Royals would quickly force a turnover in the backcourt that allowed Duininck to cash in on an easy lay-up at the 9:01 mark that now had Bethel up 30-9.  Then Peterson would get a score in the paint at the 8:40 mark that upped the lead to 32-9 before the Saints could brush off the cobwebs forming on their basket on a three-point bomb by Haus from the top of the key at the 7:20 mark.  St. Scholastica would also get a lay-up from Lind at the 6:44 mark but the Saints simply were not able to string together a number of scores that might have somehow changed the complexion of this contest and instead they had to weather a 14-0 run by Bethel to close out this second period.  Peterson would yank an offensive rebound of her own miss for a putback at the 5:45 mark to start this latest push and she would follow this feat up a short time later with a routine score in the paint with 4:52 left that had the Royals up 38-15.  Then Erickson would connect on a lay-up with 3:56 left and would follow that up with a pair of freebies after getting fouled with 3:34 left that made it a 42-15 game.  Exacerbating the situation for the visitors from Duluth, Lind picked up her second foul of the evening with 2:49 left but St. Scholastica's Jason Schmitz had little choice but to roll the dice here with the way this game was going.  And the Royals weren't letting up either as Erickson would get a routine score in the paint with 2:29 left and then Elly Schmitz would connect on a lay-up with 1:52 left that stretched Bethel's lead to 46-15 and the Saints' Jason Schmitz had little choice but to take a match to another thirty-second timeout to try and stop the massive bleeding but even that tactic wasn't working.  To make matters worse, Lind would collect her third foul of the evening and this time she was quickly yanked back to the pine for preservation purposes.  With :39.7 left, the Royals' Elly Schmitz would knock down a pair of free throws after getting fouled to put a bow tie on this latest run as Bethel took a hefty 48-15 lead into the locker room at the halftime break while the Saints looked dazed and frazzled as they retreated to their safe space.  

St. Scholastica tried to put a positive spin on things at the beginning of the third period as Haus would knock down a pair of free throws after getting fouled at the 9:34 mark and the former STMA standout would also connect on a lay-up in transition at the 8:44 mark but in between these two scores, the Saints' Lind had also collected her fourth foul of the night and the Saints' Jason Schmitz wasted little time in yanking the former Pine City standout back to the bench.  Bethel meanwhile didn't waste anytime either capitalizing on this latest setback for its opponent as they went on an 8-2 push that created an even wider gap.  Erickson would first knock down a pair of free throws after getting fouled at the 8:13 mark as would Duininck after she was fouled at the 7:52 mark that had the Royals up 52-21.  Erickson would come through again at the 7:31 mark with some flair as she connected on a short, turnaround jumper and then Elly Schmitz would cap this latest burst with an offensive rebound for a putback at the 6:13 mark that now had the Royals up by five touchdowns at 56-21.  St. Scholastica was able to take a bit of a bite off of this massive deficit as senior guard Jackie Johnson would bury a "3" from the right top area at the 6:03 mark and Haus would add a pair of free throws after getting fouled in a transition opportunity with 4:47 left but down 56-26, the idea of coming back in this one had long since gone out the window.  And Bethel would add more to its total as Elly Schmitz got one free throw to go down after getting fouled with 4:34 left and a pretty drive and finish by Penke with 3:48 left made it a 59-26 game before the Saints could take some more nibbles.  Sophomore guard Evie Schmitz would get a pair of free throws to go down after getting fouled with 3:44 left as would Haus after she was fouled with 3:10 left.  Evie Schmitz would get one more freebie to go down after getting fouled with 2:34 left and then a jumper from the free throw line area by sophomore reserve forward Kate Toewe with 2:01 left bit into the deficit more down 59-33.  With 1:07 left, Haus would bang home a "3" from the right corner area as the shot clock was expiring and with :30.9 left, Evie Schmitz would get another pair of charity stripe shots to go down after getting fouled.  Then with just :06 left on the clock, Johnson would unleash a three-point bomb from the left wing area so even though this 15-6 run by St. Scholastica was impressive in its own right given how this contest had unfolded, they were still looking at an almost impossible position down 65-41 as this one morphed into the fourth period.

And the Royals ensured that their opponent would remain in an impossible situation once the fourth period commenced as they went on a 14-2 blitz.  Erickson would start this last major run of the night with consecutive scores - a short, turnaround jumper in the lane at the 9:39 mark and a lay-up at the 9:05 mark - the latter in which former Chisago Lakes standout notched the 1,000th point of her collegiate career which got a standing ovation from not only her team but also from the partisan Bethel crowd as well.  But this latest run would continue on as a lay-up by Peterson at the 8:36 mark and a lay-up by Erickson a short time later at the 8:08 mark made it a 73-41 game.  Elly Schmitz would get in on the fun as well as she would get a score in the paint at the 6:38 mark and then knock down a pair of free throws a short time later at the 6:03 mark that made it 77-43.  Born would cap this last big blitz by Bethel with a lay-up in transition at the 5:40 mark before the Saints could patch up the massive bleeding on a three-point bomb by Haus at the 5:19 mark that "reduced" the Royals lead to 79-46.  But Bethel was still far from satisfied on this night as Penke would unleash a three-point bomb from the left wing area at the 5:02 mark and sophomore reserve point guard Kenzie Lundeen would get a three-point play the old-fashioned way with a lay-up in transition that also drew a foul with the obligatory "and one" with 4:27 left that made it an 85-46 game.  With the game now securely in the bag, both Royals Head Coach Jon Herbrechtsmeyer and the Saint's Jason Schmitz gradually got their reserves into the game to close this one out.  Three of St. Scholastica's main chain gang did get their moments down the stretch as Haus would connect on a lay-up with 4:13 left and Johnson would get a feather in her cap with a pretty three-point bomb from the left corner are with 3:33 left.  With 2:59 left, Lind would  connect on a lay-up in transition and with 1:44 left, Toewe would connect on a short, turnaround jumper.  Saints sophomore reserve gaurd Paxyn Rendahl would knock down a short jumper in the lane with :59 left and Bethel freshman reserve guard Erin Kaluza would get a pair of free throws to go down as the Royals advanced to the semifinals of the MIAC Playoffs with an 87-57 romp.

Bethel's Herbrechtsmeyer had several people he had to talk to immediately afterward but I was able to eventually catch up with him and got his thoughts on this latest conquest and how they were able to get it done on this night.  Specifically, I first mentioned that I really wasn't quite sure what to expect from his team on this night - particularly on the offensive end.  "Our offense can come and go but you've seen us play enough over the years to know that we hang our hat on our defense.....What I was pleased with was our evolution from when Elly (Schmitz) got hurt and what that did to our defense and how we needed to change and evolve a little bit.  I kind of expected this because Elly isn't 100% and she won't be and she's playing on a torn knee right now so the bottom line is that everybody else needs to be a little more 'locked in' and a little more steady in the things we ask them to do when we changed a little bit.  And this was a perfect execution of a game plan" he said.  Herbrechtsmeyer added, "When our 'D' is good, our offense kinda takes care of itself."  Herbrechtsmeyer also noted that he's been working for months now trying to get his squad "maxed out" on the defensive end and let the offensive end take care of itself and I think you saw that play out almost perfectly on this night.  And Herbrechtsmeyer also noted how Erickson has really stepped up after the injury to Elly Schmitz and from the times I've seen her since the first of the year, she's definitely done just that and the fact that Erickson notched her 1,000th point of her college career - as a junior no less - is a testament to the hard work she's had to put in and why the Royals are in the position that they are right now.  

Meanwhile it was definitely a rough night at the OK Corral for this young and somewhat inexperienced St. Scholastica team but Jason Schmitz was still very upbeat about what his squad did this season and tried to explain what went wrong for his squad on this night.  "Well, we couldn't buy a bucket early and we missed a lot of shots and you could tell we were pressing a little bit......We hadn't been in this situation before as a staff or for a program for that matter.....First MIAC Tournament....Just...a lot of shots didn't go."  I asked Jason Schmitz what this season was like for him to watch this young team grow as a unit and enjoy some high moments along the way and he was quick to talk about what Johnson, as the lone senior on this team, meant to this squad in terms of leadership and how she stuck with this program when the Saints were first navigating their way as new members of the MIAC (and Jackie Johnson, THANK YOU for the memories).  But more than anything, Jason Schmitz was just proud of this team and how they recorded the most victories for this program since the 2013-14 season and getting to their first MIAC Playoff appearance with hopefully many more appearances in the years to come.  And he's also very excited about the new players he has coming in next season as well so keep your eyes on this team and this program.

You don't really have to spend too much time glancing at the box score on this one in this type of a game but it's easy to see that when you're enjoying a 49-25 edge on the boards as Bethel did on this night along with a whopping 50-16 advantage in points in the paint, you get a pretty clear idea of how things unraveled for St. Scholastica on this night.  And the Royals enjoyed a 27-7 edge in bench points.  It was simply a matter of a tournament-tested and experienced team taking a younger and less experienced team to the cleaners on this night and those things are going to happen every now and then.  But this St. Scholastica team will learn from this experience and they're slowly laying the groundwork to be a competitive team in a very tough MIAC.

And it really was a splendid night for Bethel's Erickson as her 25 points led all scorers and she just missed out on a "double double" with nine rebounds.  Ditto for both Peterson as she tallied 14 nights and had eight rebounds and Elly Schmitz who finished with 13 points and eight rebounds.  Haus led the way for St. Scholastica on this night with her 21 points while Johnson finished up her college career with a fine showing of 13 points.       

MIAC Playoff Preview 2-23-26

As the number one-seed, Concordia hopes to be celebrating its first MIAC Championship Game victory since the 2010-11 season. 

 Well, here we are again when the most fun time of the year gets underway and the way this season has been for MIAC Women's Basketball, all I can say is buckle up and hold on to your hats.  This could get wild.  The teams that we thought would be here - for the most part anyway - are here but we've got to remember we had seven teams competing for just six playoff spots so sadly someone was going to get left out.  You've got at least three teams - possibly four - having high hopes of putting on their dancing shoes after this little shindig is all said and done.  I've honestly never seen a season like this in MIAC Women's Basketball before and I think one can reasonably make arguments for three or even possibly four teams finding a way to hold up the trophy next Saturday afternoon.  So let's break this little get-together down from the bottom up as I always do.  

6.  St. Scholastica - The Saints took a significant step upward this season; going 11-7 in conference play (and 16-9 overall) which was good enough to claim the sixth spot in the MIAC Playoffs as they held the tiebreaker over CSB.  Some may argue that St. Scholastica over-achieved this season and while one might be able to buy into that argument - at least up to a certain point anyway - this team is much better than what you think.  They're led be sophomore guard Ava Haus who just happens to be the leading scorer in the conference averaging 18.8 ppg and she's not afraid to battle down low with the "biggies" either.  Then you've got bespectacled fellow sophomore guard Evie Schmitz (13.7 ppg) as a backcourt mate.  Don't let her 5'6" frame fool you either.  She's one tough cookie for any opponent to guard and she just happens to lead the MIAC in three-point field goal percentage as well which makes her even more dangerous.  Junior forward Kloey Lind averages 13.6 ppg and eight rebounds a game and can use her 6'1" frame to swat away opponents shots.  Ryaan Speer is a tough freshman guard who's only going to get better with time and senior guard Jackie Johnson bring experience and leadership on the floor.  Head Coach Jason Schmitz can also get quality minutes from junior guard Gabby Voigt off the bench and fellow junior guard Jada Bierschbach can provide relief in the backcourt as well.  We know that the Saints can be deadly from behind the arc and to their credit, they're also solid from the charity stripe.  What was surprising to me was that St. Scholastica is actually second in the conference in team defensive rebounds with a 26.9 average.  Their assist/turnover ratio isn't terrible either as they're fourth in the conference in that department.  However, they're middle of the pack in actual turnover margin.  Ultimately, I think you have to believe that there's a ceiling with this team right now and I think it's because of the youth factor and I think that will inevitably catch up with them when they face Bethel at Robertson Center on Tuesday evening.  However, I also think that this team may very well be a force to be reckoned with next season and we're just getting a bit of a preview of that this time around.

Sure sign of trouble - I've already touched on the youth factor but unless they can get huge games off the bench from Voigt, Bierschbach, et al to compliment their starting five, taking down Bethel at Robertson Center this time of the year is likely going to be a bridge too far for this squad.

5.  Hamline - Some may see this as a bold statement but the Pipers are arguably the hottest team in the MIAC right now and I think what they've done over the last couple of weeks backs that argument up.  The funny thing of it all is that Hamline has been seeded higher in the MIAC Playoffs before, of course, but I think this particular team is better-equipped than those previous teams and has more potential this time around as well.  Their up-tempo style offensively is problematic for many opponents obviously but it's their pressure defense and trapping that can just wear on an opponent both physically and mentally when they really bring the heat.  As I've said before, it's a lot like trying to escape from Alcatraz when they come at you and there's a reason they're at the top of the pack in the MIAC in team defense.  But they have scorers, too.  Oh, do they ever!  Leading the way for Hamline is senior guard Camille Cummings (12.5 ppg) and when she gets into her groove from behind the arc, she can be absolutely lethal.  The problem for many opponents is that they have several other options as well - notably junior guard Lauren Cooper, senior combo guard/forward Sophie Stork as well as junior combo guard/forward Anna Rynkiewich.  Senior forward Marina LaFreniere is always a tough customer down low but what may make Head Coach Joshua Hersch's team so dangerous is that he's got a lot of good pieces coming off the bench that he can easily mix into the rotation and not miss a beat.  Sophomore guard Emma Lamppa has been brilliant at times off the bench and can slay you from downtown without a care in the world.  Slender sophomore guard Josie Schmidt can slither into the paint for a score or torch you from behind the arc depending on her mood.  Senior combo guard/forward Josie Wiebusch brings a ton of experience and leadership on the floor and junior forward Evelyn Wiltrout can provide rebounding on both ends of the floor.  So we know the Pipers are tops in the league in team defense and they're right up there in team offensive categories as well.  But the one area where the red flags come out is in the rebounding department where you see Hamline dead last in combined team rebounds.  Yikes.  Even worse, they're also dead last team defensive rebounds as well.  All this does give one a reason to pause for concern - and rightfully so as this could be the element that inevitably holds the Pipers back.  And, make no mistake about it, this Hamline team knows full and well that they have one path and one path only to the Promised Land and that's winning the whole ball of wax in this thing.  And they won't be able to rely on the magic of venerable Hutton Arena to strut their stuff this time around either.  They're going to have to do it in some different hostile environments.  That's just the reality of it all.  However, the way they've been playing as of late gives them that chance that they need.  As Rocco Lampone said to Michael Corleone in The Godfather Part II, "Difficult.  Not impossible."

Sure sign of trouble - Given their propensity for the up-tempo style, the last thing that the Pipers want is to forced into a half-court game with a physical opponent and if the key players (Cummings, Cooper, Stork and Lamppa) can't knock down the requisite number of three-point bombs, Hamline's dreams could easily go up in smoke.

4.  SMU - Just a mere week ago, things looked oh so good for the Cardinals as they not only had a firm grip on the number-two spot but with a decent NPI ranking, they also had their eyes squarely set on putting on their dancing shoes come next Monday as well.  This team was one of the "feel good" stories of the MIAC this season with their youthful roster and a ton of promise.  But this last week happened and SMU got a (very) cold dose of reality as they not only lost tough road games to Hamline and GAC but also suffered on the injury front as well as sophomore forward Rylie Sternquist (concussion) is questionable for Tuesday night's game against Hamline and fellow sophomore guard Brianna Nusbaum (bruised tailbone) was arguably operating at 80-85% against GAC this last Saturday and I'm keeping my fingers crossed for both of them.  Fortunately for Head Coach Courtney Shelton and her staff, the Cardinals do have their leading scorer, freshman forward Ayla Olson (15.6 ppg) very healthy and ready to go and she put her team on her back this last Saturday at GAC.  Older sister junior forward Kali Olson is also a force down low and it's no surprise that she's second in the conference in rebounding at 9.2 rebounds per game.  Nusbaum had been averaging 15.0 ppg and Sternquist 13.0 ppg and again, it's easy to see how important both of those two are to the overall scoring punch for this team.  Senior point guard Lindsey Lettner (6.0 ppg) may not necessarily be what one would call a big scoring threat but her experience and leadership on the floor is invaluable.  Sophomore combo guard/forward Julia Koch is always a threat behind the arc and speedy freshman guard Hadley Sammons is also a very welcome presence off the bench for Shelton and her staff as is sophomore guard Emma Mann who can provide quality minutes coming off the pine.  In the rebounding department, there's only one team in the MIAC better than SMU (and I'll get to them later on) and they're tops in the conference in team offense.  And the Cardinals certainly aren't bad either in total team defense where they rank fourth in the conference.  Free throw shooting could be better but other than that - at least statistically anyway - it's tough to find a lot of issues when it comes to SMU.  But where one ultimately becomes reticent about the Cardinals is their depth or rather, the lack of it and this was going to be the case whether they were fully healthy or not.  I mean, I had hoped against hope that SMU wouldn't be facing any injury issues - particularly at this stage of the season - yet here they are dealing with just that and at the most inopportune time as well.  If they were all fully healthy and ready to go, absolutely I would give them a solid chance of taking this whole thing and even more so if they were operating from a second-seed position.  But the reality is that they're not so now it's going to likely take a 1969 New York Mets or a Ferragamo to Waddy-like miracle for them to do the unthinkable here.

Sure sign of trouble - If the injuries to both Sternquist and Nusbaum weren't enough, having the Olson duo getting into foul trouble would be the kiss of death for this team and their hopes.  

3.  Bethel - Ordinarily, I'd be very high on Bethel - particularly at this time of the year but this time around, even with the number-three seed in this thing, I'm not and it doesn't feel right not to be high on them.  Let's remember, the Royals played a very tough schedule this season; playing the likes of UW-Stout, UW-River Falls, UW-La Crosse, Coe, Illinois Wesleyan and Messiah - with mostly good results and that's one of the big reasons that their NPI is as strong as it is right now which basically makes the MIAC Playoffs a prelude to the NCAA Tournament for them.  But it's been somewhat of a different story after the first of the year with puzzling losses:  a ten-point loss at GAC, a shocking setback at St. Scholastica, getting ran out of town by SMU and the loss at home to Hamline earlier this month.  So yes, they're winning but now you're beginning to see chinks in the armor where you didn't necessarily expect to see them and it's a head-scratcher to say the least.  And it's not like Head Coach Jon Herbrechtsmeyer's squad is short on talent - just the opposite in fact.  You've got All-American fifth year senior forward Elly Schmitz who averages 14.3 ppg (and that's coming off the bench) and then you've got junior forward Emily Erickson who leads the Bethel scoring attack with her 17.7 ppg and has had some games this season where she seemed to be everywhere at times.  Lanky junior forward Cally Peterson is always a threat on either end of the floor as is senior combo guard/forward Rosalie Penke.  Then you have senior point guard Colette Duininck who does everything you would want a point guard to do and she's certainly one of the best on-ball defenders in the league and can make life a living hell for opponents with her defense.  And let's not forget about senior combo guard/forward Ali Born who adds length and is a solid rebounder and defender.  And Herbrechtsmeyer has got some very good pieces coming off the bench that he can easily insert and not miss a beat, too.  The real surprise as of late has been sophomore guard Alaina Bonacquista who has been getting quality minutes and is a real asset on both ends of the floor.  Sophomore guard Kenzie Lundeen is the likely heir apparent at the point guard spot and let's not forget about fifth-year senior guard Lexi Schermann who has a ton of experience and leadership and don't be surprised if she gets some minutes this week.  The one piece off the bench that's not there at the moment is junior guard Macey Littlefield and that's a huge loss for Bethel if she can't go this week.  We all know what Bethel's modus operandi is and that's their defense and pressure and trapping and when they come at you, it's like being ganged up on by those mean ol' raptors from the Jurassic Park movies and it's usually an unpleasant ending for their victims.  And it's no wonder that they're near the top in the conference in turnover margin and assist/turnover ratio as well.  You'll also see that the Royals are third in the conference in total offense so no problem there.  And they're also third in the conference in team FG percentage as well so no real problem there either.  And team free throw percentage?  No problem there either as they're third there as well.  But what's shocking to see is that Bethel is seventh in the conference in combined team rebounds and ninth in the conference in team defensive rebounds.  Then you throw in the fact that Bethel is sixth in the conference in team three-point FG percentage and eighth in the conference in three-point FGs made and you're like, "What the (expletive deleted), over?".  Look, we know that there's some other things that have held this team back somewhat; notably not having Schmitz at a full 100% and the aforementioned injury to Littlefield but man, for a team that's virtually a shoo-in for the Dance and with all the talent they have, I can't completely shut down the idea of them putting it all together to find a way to win it all but luck and good charm certainly don't seem to be on their side right now.  

Sure sign of trouble - While the Royals should find a way to hold serve at home on Tuesday evening, they'll have to find a way to shoot the lights out from there on out and we've seen this team vulnerable on the road more than once this season when their shots aren't falling. 

2.  GAC - After graduating three fifth-year seniors and three fourth-year seniors from a team that enjoyed a magic carpet ride to the Elite 8 in the Dance last season, many thought that this season's Gustie team would come crashing back to Earth in a resounding fashion.  And, to be sure, things started off rough with a season-opening loss to Wisconsin Lutheran and then GAC would proceed to lose four of their six games in the month of December.  But it was a much different story after the first of the year as the Gusties went 13-2 with the only blemishes coming against the team I'll be talking about next.  That's one heckuva coaching job by Head Coach Laurie Kelly and she certainly has my vote for COY this season.  Has it been perfect?  No, not by any stretch but I think what's really cool about this young team is that they've slowly been able to carve their very own identity for themselves in the process and I think it's a little unfair to compare this team with the teams of the last few seasons.  Two vastly different teams and situations.  But this young team is more than worthy of garnering attention all on their own.  Willowy junior guard Ella Peters leads the Gustie scoring attack with her 15.4 ppg average but she normally gets a lot of help along the way.  Fellow junior forward Whitley Ronn is solid on both ends of the floor and one shouldn't overlook slender junior forward Kendyl Queensland either who's deceptively quick.  But the real show-stealer on this team is sophomore point guard Anna Goodman who possesses some very serious swag.  She can be a total pest on the defensive end of the floor and an even bigger threat on the scoring end and her 18 points against SMU this last Saturday in the regular season finale is testament to that.  She's been gaining more confidence with each game this season and she's a matchup nightmare for every team in this conference.  And Kelly and her staff have their share of jewels coming off the bench as well.  Junior guard Peyton Stevermer can not only score but is also one of the more physical players in the backcourt in the MIAC as well.  And woe to any MIAC opponent that leaves junior guard Kaitlyn Schaefer all by her lonesome behind the arc as she has the ability to make you pay for that mistake in spades.  And when Kelly needs to get a little bigger and physical on the floor, all she has to do is call on the services of sophomore forwards Bella DeHaan and Bella Sutch and they usually deliver and then some.  The Gusties certainly don't have to worry about their defense too much as they're second in the conference so no real worries there.  While they're more or less middle-of-the-pack in team offense and team FG percentage, they're right up there in team three-point FG percentage and they're solid in assist/turnover ratio.  And you can't complain too much in the team rebounding department where they're fourth in the conference which isn't terrible and they're near the top in team offensive rebounds.  But what caught my eye is that the Gusties are seventh in the conference in team defensive rebounds but even more alarmingly is that they're eighth in team free throw percentage and that's not where you want to be this time of the year.  All that said, the youth factor notwithstanding, this squad definitely has the goods to do the unthinkable and win this whole thing.  What's more, they're not playing with house money either as they've got a solid NPI ranking at the moment and should they win their semifinal game Thursday night at home in Lund Arena, they can absolutely feel free to roll the dice and let it rip come this Saturday in the MIAC Championship Game where they can play with no fear with absolutely nothing to lose.  And if that doesn't make them the most dangerous team of all in this thing and the biggest threat to the next team I'll talk about, then I honestly don't know what the hell does. 

Sure sign of trouble - You can't really use the overall youth of this team as an excuse and I won't either.  They've come too far along.  Rather, the bigger worry I have is the overall physicality aspect where the Gusties have some room to grow here and that aspect could rear its ugly head if they indeed get to play the team I'll talk about next.   

1.  Concordia - Many, including yours truly, have been waiting for the Cobbers to finally emerge as a true contender for top honors in the MIAC and although they've had two teams flirt with that notion over the last few years, none of those teams were as deep and complete as this current Concordia team.  In many ways, this team reminds me of that great 1986-87 Iowa team (my alma mater) with BJ Armstrong, Roy Marble, Ed Horton, Gerry "Sir Jamalot" Wright, Brad Lohaus, et al and was deeper than most nuclear submarines that went 30-5 and SHOULD have won the whole ball of wax that season but I digress.  And while that dip into nostalgia might be, okay, a LITTLE unfair to this group, Head Coach Kim Wagers certainly has all the pieces in place to not only win this thing but to make a deep run in the Big Dance as well.  It really all starts with sophomore forward Maya Metcalf (16.2 ppg and 8.5 rebounds per game) and if she somehow doesn't win MIAC POY honors, then something is inherently wrong with the system here.  She's just that good and you certainly don't have to worry about the physicality aspect when it comes to her.  Senior guard Molly Musland is a bona fide threat from behind the arc and has no fear going up against bigger players when she has to.  Fellow senior guard Taya Jeffrey is arguably the glue that holds this team together and it's been awesome to see her transform from a seldom-used bench player to someone who got valuable minutes last season and now as someone who has blossomed into her full potential.  Senior point guard Taylor Safranski is as steady as they come and even though the stats would suggest that she doesn't score a bunch, she's one of the last players you'd want to leave behind the arc all by herself as she will make you pay dearly for that mistake.  Junior forward Genevieve Gruba sometimes seems to be the forgotten element in the overall Concordia attack but her 5'10" frame allows her to not only get into the paint for tough scores but also allows her to wreak havoc on the defensive and rebounding ends as well.  Then you've got to consider what Wagers and her staff have coming off the bench.  Freshman guard Kaitlyn Rohloff has already shown flashes of greatness and she's the likely heir apparent at the point guard spot but she's different as she can use flashy moves and score as well.  Then there's junior guard Alexa Snesrud who's as physical as they come and won't hesitate to mix it up in the paint with bigger players.  Fellow junior guard Olivia Hanson has already shown that she can be a big-time scoring threat and if that wasn't enough, you've also got players like sophomore guards Tatum Findley, Peyton Briedenbach and Brooklyn Christianson all ready to go if need be.  And if Wagers needs length in the frontcourt, she's set there as well as sophomore forward Kaia Gack and junior post Maci Wheeldon can both rebound as well as anyone in the MIAC.  Bottom line here:  This team is as loaded as they come.  But what's really cool about this team is that even though we've seen Metcalf steal the show on the scoring front several times this season, there have been others that have stepped up in other games.  In the season opener against UM-Morris, it was Wheeldon's 16 points leading the way.  Against UW-Stout and Carleton, Musland led the way 24 points both times.  Against Bethel in November, it was Jeffrey's 10 points that led the way and at GAC back on 1-31, it was Hanson's 16 points that led the way.  So while opponents may primarily put their focus on Metcalf, that doesn't mean others can't/won't step up.  And, in case you were wondering, there aren't many weak spots when it comes to Concordia.  Consider:  The Cobbers are second in the conference in total team offense and third in team defense not to mention second in margin of victory at 14.8.  Concordia is second in team FG percentage and tops in the conference in opponent FG percentage.  Need further proof?  The Cobbers are numero uno in team three-point percentage and second in opponent three-point percentage.  And Concordia is tops in combined team rebounds and team defensive rebounds.  And they're also tops in the conference in assist/turnover ratio as well.  In fact, the only thing that burns me when it comes to the Cobbers is that they're sixth in the conference in team free throw percentage and for a program that has had free throw shooting as one of its hallmark strengths, this should be upsetting.  However, I'm willing to give Concordia a pass on that for the time being.  But, make no mistake about it.  This is the team that, with everything they have at their disposal, should be the odds-on favorite to win the MIAC Championship Game - something that this program hasn't done since the 2010-11 season and that's a long dry spell.  And you know this team is more than capable of making a deep run in the Big Dance.  The big question is, are they really ready for the moment?  I think they are.  

Sure sign of trouble - It's arguably tough to find many scenarios where the Cobbers could falter in this thing although both GAC and Hamline both provide unique styles and matchups that could pose problems.  Free throw shooting could be a concern and that's the last thing you want to have rear its ugly head this time of year.

So there you have it.  Again, I have never seen a season in MIAC Women's Hoops like this one and it's just been so fun to watch.  And now we're getting into the REALLY fun part of it all.  As I said earlier, buckle up because this little party could be wild.  And while there's one team that's an obvious favorite, there's two or three others that could upset the whole apple cart.  As Michael Corleone said in The Godfather Part III, "Then no one is safe."  

Let's get this little party started, shall we?