Friday Morning Update On The Bigger Picture And A Look At Saturday's MIAC Championship Game

Simulated NCAA Tournament Field and possible bracket breakdowns (courtesy of Scott Peterson)

 So I wanted to provide something of an update on the bigger picture here this morning after last night's wild action in the MIAC Playoff Semifinals that saw Bethel oust GAC and then Concordia's improbable comeback from a twenty-one point deficit in the third period to overcome SMU.  Down in St. Peter, the Royals were simply too strong down the stretch and their experience paid off as they downed the Gusties 73-66.  In the second game, the Cardinals appeared to have things firmly in control with a twenty-one point lead early in the third period before the Cobbers; behind sophomore forward Maya Metcalf and freshman reserve guard Kaitlyn Rohloff led a surge late in the third period and throughout the fourth as Concordia punched its ticket to the MIAC Championship Game; their third in four years and now will be hosting this game for the first time since the 2012-13 season.  

So what does this mean for the MIAC in terms of the bigger picture - specifically the NCAA Tournament?  Well, you can now pretty much book three teams - Concordia, Bethel and GAC into the Big Dance.  Now, SMU on the other hand could very well be left on the outside looking in on all of this; not so much because of the fact that they fell short last night but rather because of a big result elsewhere - specifically DePauw's huge upset of Denison in one of the NCAC semifinal playoff games last night that put the Tigers, who were on the outside looking in before last night's game, firmly into an at-large bid with a big rise in their NPI ranking that might've otherwise been safely secured by SMU.  Keep in mind that there's still a lot of moving pieces in action both today, tonight and tomorrow but as badly as I would love to see the Cardinals get in, the late slump they had in the last week of the regular season along with two "bad" losses to both St. Kate's and CSB earlier might be too much to overcome in this case.  We'll see.

In any event, this sets up the third meeting tomorrow (Saturday 2-28) between Bethel and Concordia - this one for all the marbles in the MIAC Championship Game.  The Royals won the two previous meetings - the first in Moorhead in a non-conference setting back on 11-25 and then at home in Robertson Center a little more than a month ago on 1-24 - both of which were very tough, hard-fought games that were very close.  Undoubtedly, the Cobbers cannot afford to get themselves into a significant hole like they did last night and whenever you play Bethel - I don't care who you are - you've gotta take care of the rock and you've also gotta box out and you've gotta rebound.  I will say that I think that Concordia is better-equipped to take down the Royals than GAC was simply because of their depth and the physicality/size aspects.  But let's also remember too that Bethel's been here before and they know what this is all about and the Cobbers are going to have to bring their "A" game with them tomorrow if they want to hoist their first MIAC Playoff title since 2011.  

Will be heading up US Highway 10 and the BNSF's Staples Sub mainline this afternoon to Fargo-Moorhead.  This should be a great game tomorrow.  As always, please feel free to fire away with thoughts.  

Thursday Afternoon Update On The Bigger Picture - 2-26-26

 

Simulated NCAA Tournament Field For Thursday 2-26-26 (courtesy Scott Peterson)

So here we are on semifinal Thursday of the MIAC Women's Basketball Playoffs with two great games on tap tonight - Bethel at GAC in the 5:00 PM slot and SMU at Concordia in prime time at 7:00 PM.  Both of these contests should be absolute battles and you know I'm going to be watching both games online.  The winners tonight will meet in the MIAC Championship Game on Saturday at 3:00 PM at the remaining highest-seed location.  

So, while the St. Scholastica - Bethel game that I covered on Tuesday night was a blowout with the Royals advancing, the battle down in Winona on this same night was an absolutely wild affair that I had a feeling it would be - just not in the way it went down.  At the end of the third period, the Pipers seemed to have all but punched their ticket to tonight's semifinal action with a hefty 52-32 lead on the Cardinals and the magical season for SMU that seemed to have so much promise appeared to be going up in flames.  But someone forgot to inform this young Cardinals team of the dire straits they were in and instead they went on an incredible 27-0 blitz in the fourth period; snaring victory from the jaws of almost certain defeat as they advanced to tonight's semifinal action with a 59-52 victory in the unlikeliest fashion.  And, as you can see from the simulated NCAA Tournament bracket (above), SMU is clearly back in the picture for an at-large bid as their NPI ranking took a significant spike after the win.  Now, to be sure, the Cardinals are not a "sure thing" just yet; there's still a lot of moving pieces in a very fluid situation and while a loss to Concordia tonight doesn't necessarily erase them from the picture, the Cardinals will have to keep a wary eye on some of these other bubble teams - particularly out East - to see how they fare tonight and this weekend.  But personally I think the Cardinals will find a way to get in and wouldn't that be incredible to see the MIAC get FOUR teams into the Dance?  

Now, closer to home we know that the WIAC is still going to be a five-bid league and the WIAC Championship Game is set for Friday night as UW-Oshkosh (b'gosh) will host UW-La Crosse with the winner getting the conference's automatic bid.  But what's interesting here is that should the Eagles somehow find a way to pull off a massive upset, that COULD catapult them into one of the top 16 seeds whereby they would get an opportunity to host a 1st/2nd Round NCAA pod at their facility.  We'll just have to see how that all plays out.  Here in the MIAC, you'll see from above where Concordia is in an excellent position right now as a projected number-eleven seed where they would certainly be in position to host a 1st/2nd round NCAA pod at home in Moorhead.  But what happens if they should stumble either tonight or in the MIAC Championship Game?  That's a very good question.  Meanwhile, the ARC appears to be a one-bid league and there's two semifinal games tonight back home in Iowa as well (Luther at Wartburg and Buena Vista at Coe).  And the UMAC will also be a one-bid league but the number-one seed - Bethany Lutheran - was upended at home last night by North Central so now it will all come down to the UMAC Championship Game on Saturday up on the frigid shores of Gitche Gumee with the Rams taking on UW-Superior.  

As always, please feel free to fire away with thoughts.  I hope to be able to provide another update sometime tomorrow.  

MIAC Quarterfinal Playoff Game - St. Scholastica vs Bethel 2-24-26

Bethel's Emily Erickson's 25 points on this night helped the Royals bag a big MIAC Quarterfinal Playoff win and advance into Semifinal action on Thursday night. 

Made a quick run over to Robertson Center on the campus of Bethel University on this early Tuesday evening to take in one of the two MIAC Quarterfinal Playoff games happening on this night - this particular one between visiting St. Scholastica and host Bethel.  The Saints had enjoyed the period between late January and early February that saw them win five out of six games but the home stretch of the regular season had not been kind to them as they went up against three of the top teams in the conference and went 0-3 in the process and they knew full and well that they'd have their work cut out for them on this night with another top tier opponent.  The Royals meanwhile had righted the ship after the shocking home loss to Hamline 2-11 and closed out the regular season on a three-game win streak and seemed to have a bit of a head of steam coming into the MIAC Playoffs.  Robertson Center was rocking before tip-off as both schools had a large and very vocal student section ready to make a ruckus.

And both teams definitely gave their respective student sections reasons to erupt in the early moments of the opening period.  Bethel would strike first as senior point guard Colette Duininck would find a gap and use a burst of speed to connect on a lay-up at the 9:41 mark and a short time later, the Saints would counter as strong sophomore guard Ava Haus got a short pull-up jumper to go down at the 8:57 mark that leveled the contest.  But St. Scholastica couldn't have possibly prepared for the avalanche that they would soon run into as the Royals ripped off a 19-2 blitz.  Duininck would drain a "3" from the right top area at the 8:36 mark to start this run and two free throws by junior forward Emily Erickson after she was fouled at the 7:31 mark had Bethel up 7-2.  A short time later, senior combo guard/forward Ali Born would bury a "3" from the left wing area that expanded the lead to 10-2 and Saints Head Coach Jason Schmitz; immediately sensing that his squad was running into a brick wall, called a thirty-second timeout to try and avert disaster.  But the Royals with their pressure defense and trapping, weren't in any kind of mood to let their opponent off the hook so easily as they continued with this initial onslaught.  Erickson would bang home a "3" from the right top area at the 5:47 mark that made it a 13-4 ballgame and then sophomore reserve guard Alaina Bonacquista got in on the fun with a lay-up with 4:44 left.  Fifth-year All-American senior reserve forward Elly Schmitz would connect on a lay-up with 4:13 left that made it 17-4 and senior combo guard/forward Rosalie Penke would join in on the fun as well with a tough drive and finish with 3:40 left to make it 19-4.  Lanky junior forward Cally Peterson would cap this initial burst with a lay-up in transition with 3:02 left that pushed the lead to 21-4 before St. Scholastica could put a band-aid on the bleeding on one free throw by junior reserve guard Gabby Voigt after she was fouled behind the arc with 2:39 left.  The Saints would add another small amount to their ledger when willowy junior forward Kloey Lind was able to slither into the paint for a score with 1:59 left but then Bethel was able to close out this first period on a 5-2 burst.  Bonacquista would drain a "3" from the right corner area with 1:43 left and Peterson would snare an offensive rebound for a putback with :45.2 left that put the Royals up 26-7.  St. Scholastica would get some small solace on a short jumper in the lane by Lind with :13.2 left but trailing 26-9, this was the exact opposite of where the Saints wanted to find themselves at this particular juncture.

And things certainly didn't get any better for St. Scholastica once the second period got underway as they had to absorb a 6-1 push by the home team from the outset.  Erickson would muscle into the paint for a score at the 9:11 mark and then the Royals would quickly force a turnover in the backcourt that allowed Duininck to cash in on an easy lay-up at the 9:01 mark that now had Bethel up 30-9.  Then Peterson would get a score in the paint at the 8:40 mark that upped the lead to 32-9 before the Saints could brush off the cobwebs forming on their basket on a three-point bomb by Haus from the top of the key at the 7:20 mark.  St. Scholastica would also get a lay-up from Lind at the 6:44 mark but the Saints simply were not able to string together a number of scores that might have somehow changed the complexion of this contest and instead they had to weather a 14-0 run by Bethel to close out this second period.  Peterson would yank an offensive rebound of her own miss for a putback at the 5:45 mark to start this latest push and she would follow this feat up a short time later with a routine score in the paint with 4:52 left that had the Royals up 38-15.  Then Erickson would connect on a lay-up with 3:56 left and would follow that up with a pair of freebies after getting fouled with 3:34 left that made it a 42-15 game.  Exacerbating the situation for the visitors from Duluth, Lind picked up her second foul of the evening with 2:49 left but St. Scholastica's Jason Schmitz had little choice but to roll the dice here with the way this game was going.  And the Royals weren't letting up either as Erickson would get a routine score in the paint with 2:29 left and then Elly Schmitz would connect on a lay-up with 1:52 left that stretched Bethel's lead to 46-15 and the Saints' Jason Schmitz had little choice but to take a match to another thirty-second timeout to try and stop the massive bleeding but even that tactic wasn't working.  To make matters worse, Lind would collect her third foul of the evening and this time she was quickly yanked back to the pine for preservation purposes.  With :39.7 left, the Royals' Elly Schmitz would knock down a pair of free throws after getting fouled to put a bow tie on this latest run as Bethel took a hefty 48-15 lead into the locker room at the halftime break while the Saints looked dazed and frazzled as they retreated to their safe space.  

St. Scholastica tried to put a positive spin on things at the beginning of the third period as Haus would knock down a pair of free throws after getting fouled at the 9:34 mark and the former STMA standout would also connect on a lay-up in transition at the 8:44 mark but in between these two scores, the Saints' Lind had also collected her fourth foul of the night and the Saints' Jason Schmitz wasted little time in yanking the former Pine City standout back to the bench.  Bethel meanwhile didn't waste anytime either capitalizing on this latest setback for its opponent as they went on an 8-2 push that created an even wider gap.  Erickson would first knock down a pair of free throws after getting fouled at the 8:13 mark as would Duininck after she was fouled at the 7:52 mark that had the Royals up 52-21.  Erickson would come through again at the 7:31 mark with some flair as she connected on a short, turnaround jumper and then Elly Schmitz would cap this latest burst with an offensive rebound for a putback at the 6:13 mark that now had the Royals up by five touchdowns at 56-21.  St. Scholastica was able to take a bit of a bite off of this massive deficit as senior guard Jackie Johnson would bury a "3" from the right top area at the 6:03 mark and Haus would add a pair of free throws after getting fouled in a transition opportunity with 4:47 left but down 56-26, the idea of coming back in this one had long since gone out the window.  And Bethel would add more to its total as Elly Schmitz got one free throw to go down after getting fouled with 4:34 left and a pretty drive and finish by Penke with 3:48 left made it a 59-26 game before the Saints could take some more nibbles.  Sophomore guard Evie Schmitz would get a pair of free throws to go down after getting fouled with 3:44 left as would Haus after she was fouled with 3:10 left.  Evie Schmitz would get one more freebie to go down after getting fouled with 2:34 left and then a jumper from the free throw line area by sophomore reserve forward Kate Toewe with 2:01 left bit into the deficit more down 59-33.  With 1:07 left, Haus would bang home a "3" from the right corner area as the shot clock was expiring and with :30.9 left, Evie Schmitz would get another pair of charity stripe shots to go down after getting fouled.  Then with just :06 left on the clock, Johnson would unleash a three-point bomb from the left wing area so even though this 15-6 run by St. Scholastica was impressive in its own right given how this contest had unfolded, they were still looking at an almost impossible position down 65-41 as this one morphed into the fourth period.

And the Royals ensured that their opponent would remain in an impossible situation once the fourth period commenced as they went on a 14-2 blitz.  Erickson would start this last major run of the night with consecutive scores - a short, turnaround jumper in the lane at the 9:39 mark and a lay-up at the 9:05 mark - the latter in which former Chisago Lakes standout notched the 1,000th point of her collegiate career which got a standing ovation from not only her team but also from the partisan Bethel crowd as well.  But this latest run would continue on as a lay-up by Peterson at the 8:36 mark and a lay-up by Erickson a short time later at the 8:08 mark made it a 73-41 game.  Elly Schmitz would get in on the fun as well as she would get a score in the paint at the 6:38 mark and then knock down a pair of free throws a short time later at the 6:03 mark that made it 77-43.  Born would cap this last big blitz by Bethel with a lay-up in transition at the 5:40 mark before the Saints could patch up the massive bleeding on a three-point bomb by Haus at the 5:19 mark that "reduced" the Royals lead to 79-46.  But Bethel was still far from satisfied on this night as Penke would unleash a three-point bomb from the left wing area at the 5:02 mark and sophomore reserve point guard Kenzie Lundeen would get a three-point play the old-fashioned way with a lay-up in transition that also drew a foul with the obligatory "and one" with 4:27 left that made it an 85-46 game.  With the game now securely in the bag, both Royals Head Coach Jon Herbrechtsmeyer and the Saint's Jason Schmitz gradually got their reserves into the game to close this one out.  Three of St. Scholastica's main chain gang did get their moments down the stretch as Haus would connect on a lay-up with 4:13 left and Johnson would get a feather in her cap with a pretty three-point bomb from the left corner are with 3:33 left.  With 2:59 left, Lind would  connect on a lay-up in transition and with 1:44 left, Toewe would connect on a short, turnaround jumper.  Saints sophomore reserve gaurd Paxyn Rendahl would knock down a short jumper in the lane with :59 left and Bethel freshman reserve guard Erin Kaluza would get a pair of free throws to go down as the Royals advanced to the semifinals of the MIAC Playoffs with an 87-57 romp.

Bethel's Herbrechtsmeyer had several people he had to talk to immediately afterward but I was able to eventually catch up with him and got his thoughts on this latest conquest and how they were able to get it done on this night.  Specifically, I first mentioned that I really wasn't quite sure what to expect from his team on this night - particularly on the offensive end.  "Our offense can come and go but you've seen us play enough over the years to know that we hang our hat on our defense.....What I was pleased with was our evolution from when Elly (Schmitz) got hurt and what that did to our defense and how we needed to change and evolve a little bit.  I kind of expected this because Elly isn't 100% and she won't be and she's playing on a torn knee right now so the bottom line is that everybody else needs to be a little more 'locked in' and a little more steady in the things we ask them to do when we changed a little bit.  And this was a perfect execution of a game plan" he said.  Herbrechtsmeyer added, "When our 'D' is good, our offense kinda takes care of itself."  Herbrechtsmeyer also noted that he's been working for months now trying to get his squad "maxed out" on the defensive end and let the offensive end take care of itself and I think you saw that play out almost perfectly on this night.  And Herbrechtsmeyer also noted how Erickson has really stepped up after the injury to Elly Schmitz and from the times I've seen her since the first of the year, she's definitely done just that and the fact that Erickson notched her 1,000th point of her college career - as a junior no less - is a testament to the hard work she's had to put in and why the Royals are in the position that they are right now.  

Meanwhile it was definitely a rough night at the OK Corral for this young and somewhat inexperienced St. Scholastica team but Jason Schmitz was still very upbeat about what his squad did this season and tried to explain what went wrong for his squad on this night.  "Well, we couldn't buy a bucket early and we missed a lot of shots and you could tell we were pressing a little bit......We hadn't been in this situation before as a staff or for a program for that matter.....First MIAC Tournament....Just...a lot of shots didn't go."  I asked Jason Schmitz what this season was like for him to watch this young team grow as a unit and enjoy some high moments along the way and he was quick to talk about what Johnson, as the lone senior on this team, meant to this squad in terms of leadership and how she stuck with this program when the Saints were first navigating their way as new members of the MIAC (and Jackie Johnson, THANK YOU for the memories).  But more than anything, Jason Schmitz was just proud of this team and how they recorded the most victories for this program since the 2013-14 season and getting to their first MIAC Playoff appearance with hopefully many more appearances in the years to come.  And he's also very excited about the new players he has coming in next season as well so keep your eyes on this team and this program.

You don't really have to spend too much time glancing at the box score on this one in this type of a game but it's easy to see that when you're enjoying a 49-25 edge on the boards as Bethel did on this night along with a whopping 50-16 advantage in points in the paint, you get a pretty clear idea of how things unraveled for St. Scholastica on this night.  And the Royals enjoyed a 27-7 edge in bench points.  It was simply a matter of a tournament-tested and experienced team taking a younger and less experienced team to the cleaners on this night and those things are going to happen every now and then.  But this St. Scholastica team will learn from this experience and they're slowly laying the groundwork to be a competitive team in a very tough MIAC.

And it really was a splendid night for Bethel's Erickson as her 25 points led all scorers and she just missed out on a "double double" with nine rebounds.  Ditto for both Peterson as she tallied 14 nights and had eight rebounds and Elly Schmitz who finished with 13 points and eight rebounds.  Haus led the way for St. Scholastica on this night with her 21 points while Johnson finished up her college career with a fine showing of 13 points.       

MIAC Playoff Preview 2-23-26

As the number one-seed, Concordia hopes to be celebrating its first MIAC Championship Game victory since the 2010-11 season. 

 Well, here we are again when the most fun time of the year gets underway and the way this season has been for MIAC Women's Basketball, all I can say is buckle up and hold on to your hats.  This could get wild.  The teams that we thought would be here - for the most part anyway - are here but we've got to remember we had seven teams competing for just six playoff spots so sadly someone was going to get left out.  You've got at least three teams - possibly four - having high hopes of putting on their dancing shoes after this little shindig is all said and done.  I've honestly never seen a season like this in MIAC Women's Basketball before and I think one can reasonably make arguments for three or even possibly four teams finding a way to hold up the trophy next Saturday afternoon.  So let's break this little get-together down from the bottom up as I always do.  

6.  St. Scholastica - The Saints took a significant step upward this season; going 11-7 in conference play (and 16-9 overall) which was good enough to claim the sixth spot in the MIAC Playoffs as they held the tiebreaker over CSB.  Some may argue that St. Scholastica over-achieved this season and while one might be able to buy into that argument - at least up to a certain point anyway - this team is much better than what you think.  They're led be sophomore guard Ava Haus who just happens to be the leading scorer in the conference averaging 18.8 ppg and she's not afraid to battle down low with the "biggies" either.  Then you've got bespectacled fellow sophomore guard Evie Schmitz (13.7 ppg) as a backcourt mate.  Don't let her 5'6" frame fool you either.  She's one tough cookie for any opponent to guard and she just happens to lead the MIAC in three-point field goal percentage as well which makes her even more dangerous.  Junior forward Kloey Lind averages 13.6 ppg and eight rebounds a game and can use her 6'1" frame to swat away opponents shots.  Ryaan Speer is a tough freshman guard who's only going to get better with time and senior guard Jackie Johnson bring experience and leadership on the floor.  Head Coach Jason Schmitz can also get quality minutes from junior guard Gabby Voigt off the bench and fellow junior guard Jada Bierschbach can provide relief in the backcourt as well.  We know that the Saints can be deadly from behind the arc and to their credit, they're also solid from the charity stripe.  What was surprising to me was that St. Scholastica is actually second in the conference in team defensive rebounds with a 26.9 average.  Their assist/turnover ratio isn't terrible either as they're fourth in the conference in that department.  However, they're middle of the pack in actual turnover margin.  Ultimately, I think you have to believe that there's a ceiling with this team right now and I think it's because of the youth factor and I think that will inevitably catch up with them when they face Bethel at Robertson Center on Tuesday evening.  However, I also think that this team may very well be a force to be reckoned with next season and we're just getting a bit of a preview of that this time around.

Sure sign of trouble - I've already touched on the youth factor but unless they can get huge games off the bench from Voigt, Bierschbach, et al to compliment their starting five, taking down Bethel at Robertson Center this time of the year is likely going to be a bridge too far for this squad.

5.  Hamline - Some may see this as a bold statement but the Pipers are arguably the hottest team in the MIAC right now and I think what they've done over the last couple of weeks backs that argument up.  The funny thing of it all is that Hamline has been seeded higher in the MIAC Playoffs before, of course, but I think this particular team is better-equipped than those previous teams and has more potential this time around as well.  Their up-tempo style offensively is problematic for many opponents obviously but it's their pressure defense and trapping that can just wear on an opponent both physically and mentally when they really bring the heat.  As I've said before, it's a lot like trying to escape from Alcatraz when they come at you and there's a reason they're at the top of the pack in the MIAC in team defense.  But they have scorers, too.  Oh, do they ever!  Leading the way for Hamline is senior guard Camille Cummings (12.5 ppg) and when she gets into her groove from behind the arc, she can be absolutely lethal.  The problem for many opponents is that they have several other options as well - notably junior guard Lauren Cooper, senior combo guard/forward Sophie Stork as well as junior combo guard/forward Anna Rynkiewich.  Senior forward Marina LaFreniere is always a tough customer down low but what may make Head Coach Joshua Hersch's team so dangerous is that he's got a lot of good pieces coming off the bench that he can easily mix into the rotation and not miss a beat.  Sophomore guard Emma Lamppa has been brilliant at times off the bench and can slay you from downtown without a care in the world.  Slender sophomore guard Josie Schmidt can slither into the paint for a score or torch you from behind the arc depending on her mood.  Senior combo guard/forward Josie Wiebusch brings a ton of experience and leadership on the floor and junior forward Evelyn Wiltrout can provide rebounding on both ends of the floor.  So we know the Pipers are tops in the league in team defense and they're right up there in team offensive categories as well.  But the one area where the red flags come out is in the rebounding department where you see Hamline dead last in combined team rebounds.  Yikes.  Even worse, they're also dead last team defensive rebounds as well.  All this does give one a reason to pause for concern - and rightfully so as this could be the element that inevitably holds the Pipers back.  And, make no mistake about it, this Hamline team knows full and well that they have one path and one path only to the Promised Land and that's winning the whole ball of wax in this thing.  And they won't be able to rely on the magic of venerable Hutton Arena to strut their stuff this time around either.  They're going to have to do it in some different hostile environments.  That's just the reality of it all.  However, the way they've been playing as of late gives them that chance that they need.  As Rocco Lampone said to Michael Corleone in The Godfather Part II, "Difficult.  Not impossible."

Sure sign of trouble - Given their propensity for the up-tempo style, the last thing that the Pipers want is to forced into a half-court game with a physical opponent and if the key players (Cummings, Cooper, Stork and Lamppa) can't knock down the requisite number of three-point bombs, Hamline's dreams could easily go up in smoke.

4.  SMU - Just a mere week ago, things looked oh so good for the Cardinals as they not only had a firm grip on the number-two spot but with a decent NPI ranking, they also had their eyes squarely set on putting on their dancing shoes come next Monday as well.  This team was one of the "feel good" stories of the MIAC this season with their youthful roster and a ton of promise.  But this last week happened and SMU got a (very) cold dose of reality as they not only lost tough road games to Hamline and GAC but also suffered on the injury front as well as sophomore forward Rylie Sternquist (concussion) is questionable for Tuesday night's game against Hamline and fellow sophomore guard Brianna Nusbaum (bruised tailbone) was arguably operating at 80-85% against GAC this last Saturday and I'm keeping my fingers crossed for both of them.  Fortunately for Head Coach Courtney Shelton and her staff, the Cardinals do have their leading scorer, freshman forward Ayla Olson (15.6 ppg) very healthy and ready to go and she put her team on her back this last Saturday at GAC.  Older sister junior forward Kali Olson is also a force down low and it's no surprise that she's second in the conference in rebounding at 9.2 rebounds per game.  Nusbaum had been averaging 15.0 ppg and Sternquist 13.0 ppg and again, it's easy to see how important both of those two are to the overall scoring punch for this team.  Senior point guard Lindsey Lettner (6.0 ppg) may not necessarily be what one would call a big scoring threat but her experience and leadership on the floor is invaluable.  Sophomore combo guard/forward Julia Koch is always a threat behind the arc and speedy freshman guard Hadley Sammons is also a very welcome presence off the bench for Shelton and her staff as is sophomore guard Emma Mann who can provide quality minutes coming off the pine.  In the rebounding department, there's only one team in the MIAC better than SMU (and I'll get to them later on) and they're tops in the conference in team offense.  And the Cardinals certainly aren't bad either in total team defense where they rank fourth in the conference.  Free throw shooting could be better but other than that - at least statistically anyway - it's tough to find a lot of issues when it comes to SMU.  But where one ultimately becomes reticent about the Cardinals is their depth or rather, the lack of it and this was going to be the case whether they were fully healthy or not.  I mean, I had hoped against hope that SMU wouldn't be facing any injury issues - particularly at this stage of the season - yet here they are dealing with just that and at the most inopportune time as well.  If they were all fully healthy and ready to go, absolutely I would give them a solid chance of taking this whole thing and even more so if they were operating from a second-seed position.  But the reality is that they're not so now it's going to likely take a 1969 New York Mets or a Ferragamo to Waddy-like miracle for them to do the unthinkable here.

Sure sign of trouble - If the injuries to both Sternquist and Nusbaum weren't enough, having the Olson duo getting into foul trouble would be the kiss of death for this team and their hopes.  

3.  Bethel - Ordinarily, I'd be very high on Bethel - particularly at this time of the year but this time around, even with the number-three seed in this thing, I'm not and it doesn't feel right not to be high on them.  Let's remember, the Royals played a very tough schedule this season; playing the likes of UW-Stout, UW-River Falls, UW-La Crosse, Coe, Illinois Wesleyan and Messiah - with mostly good results and that's one of the big reasons that their NPI is as strong as it is right now which basically makes the MIAC Playoffs a prelude to the NCAA Tournament for them.  But it's been somewhat of a different story after the first of the year with puzzling losses:  a ten-point loss at GAC, a shocking setback at St. Scholastica, getting ran out of town by SMU and the loss at home to Hamline earlier this month.  So yes, they're winning but now you're beginning to see chinks in the armor where you didn't necessarily expect to see them and it's a head-scratcher to say the least.  And it's not like Head Coach Jon Herbrechtsmeyer's squad is short on talent - just the opposite in fact.  You've got All-American fifth year senior forward Elly Schmitz who averages 14.3 ppg (and that's coming off the bench) and then you've got junior forward Emily Erickson who leads the Bethel scoring attack with her 17.7 ppg and has had some games this season where she seemed to be everywhere at times.  Lanky junior forward Cally Peterson is always a threat on either end of the floor as is senior combo guard/forward Rosalie Penke.  Then you have senior point guard Colette Duininck who does everything you would want a point guard to do and she's certainly one of the best on-ball defenders in the league and can make life a living hell for opponents with her defense.  And let's not forget about senior combo guard/forward Ali Born who adds length and is a solid rebounder and defender.  And Herbrechtsmeyer has got some very good pieces coming off the bench that he can easily insert and not miss a beat, too.  The real surprise as of late has been sophomore guard Alaina Bonacquista who has been getting quality minutes and is a real asset on both ends of the floor.  Sophomore guard Kenzie Lundeen is the likely heir apparent at the point guard spot and let's not forget about fifth-year senior guard Lexi Schermann who has a ton of experience and leadership and don't be surprised if she gets some minutes this week.  The one piece off the bench that's not there at the moment is junior guard Macey Littlefield and that's a huge loss for Bethel if she can't go this week.  We all know what Bethel's modus operandi is and that's their defense and pressure and trapping and when they come at you, it's like being ganged up on by those mean ol' raptors from the Jurassic Park movies and it's usually an unpleasant ending for their victims.  And it's no wonder that they're near the top in the conference in turnover margin and assist/turnover ratio as well.  You'll also see that the Royals are third in the conference in total offense so no problem there.  And they're also third in the conference in team FG percentage as well so no real problem there either.  And team free throw percentage?  No problem there either as they're third there as well.  But what's shocking to see is that Bethel is seventh in the conference in combined team rebounds and ninth in the conference in team defensive rebounds.  Then you throw in the fact that Bethel is sixth in the conference in team three-point FG percentage and eighth in the conference in three-point FGs made and you're like, "What the (expletive deleted), over?".  Look, we know that there's some other things that have held this team back somewhat; notably not having Schmitz at a full 100% and the aforementioned injury to Littlefield but man, for a team that's virtually a shoo-in for the Dance and with all the talent they have, I can't completely shut down the idea of them putting it all together to find a way to win it all but luck and good charm certainly don't seem to be on their side right now.  

Sure sign of trouble - While the Royals should find a way to hold serve at home on Tuesday evening, they'll have to find a way to shoot the lights out from there on out and we've seen this team vulnerable on the road more than once this season when their shots aren't falling. 

2.  GAC - After graduating three fifth-year seniors and three fourth-year seniors from a team that enjoyed a magic carpet ride to the Elite 8 in the Dance last season, many thought that this season's Gustie team would come crashing back to Earth in a resounding fashion.  And, to be sure, things started off rough with a season-opening loss to Wisconsin Lutheran and then GAC would proceed to lose four of their six games in the month of December.  But it was a much different story after the first of the year as the Gusties went 13-2 with the only blemishes coming against the team I'll be talking about next.  That's one heckuva coaching job by Head Coach Laurie Kelly and she certainly has my vote for COY this season.  Has it been perfect?  No, not by any stretch but I think what's really cool about this young team is that they've slowly been able to carve their very own identity for themselves in the process and I think it's a little unfair to compare this team with the teams of the last few seasons.  Two vastly different teams and situations.  But this young team is more than worthy of garnering attention all on their own.  Willowy junior guard Ella Peters leads the Gustie scoring attack with her 15.4 ppg average but she normally gets a lot of help along the way.  Fellow junior forward Whitley Ronn is solid on both ends of the floor and one shouldn't overlook slender junior forward Kendyl Queensland either who's deceptively quick.  But the real show-stealer on this team is sophomore point guard Anna Goodman who possesses some very serious swag.  She can be a total pest on the defensive end of the floor and an even bigger threat on the scoring end and her 18 points against SMU this last Saturday in the regular season finale is testament to that.  She's been gaining more confidence with each game this season and she's a matchup nightmare for every team in this conference.  And Kelly and her staff have their share of jewels coming off the bench as well.  Junior guard Peyton Stevermer can not only score but is also one of the more physical players in the backcourt in the MIAC as well.  And woe to any MIAC opponent that leaves junior guard Kaitlyn Schaefer all by her lonesome behind the arc as she has the ability to make you pay for that mistake in spades.  And when Kelly needs to get a little bigger and physical on the floor, all she has to do is call on the services of sophomore forwards Bella DeHaan and Bella Sutch and they usually deliver and then some.  The Gusties certainly don't have to worry about their defense too much as they're second in the conference so no real worries there.  While they're more or less middle-of-the-pack in team offense and team FG percentage, they're right up there in team three-point FG percentage and they're solid in assist/turnover ratio.  And you can't complain too much in the team rebounding department where they're fourth in the conference which isn't terrible and they're near the top in team offensive rebounds.  But what caught my eye is that the Gusties are seventh in the conference in team defensive rebounds but even more alarmingly is that they're eighth in team free throw percentage and that's not where you want to be this time of the year.  All that said, the youth factor notwithstanding, this squad definitely has the goods to do the unthinkable and win this whole thing.  What's more, they're not playing with house money either as they've got a solid NPI ranking at the moment and should they win their semifinal game Thursday night at home in Lund Arena, they can absolutely feel free to roll the dice and let it rip come this Saturday in the MIAC Championship Game where they can play with no fear with absolutely nothing to lose.  And if that doesn't make them the most dangerous team of all in this thing and the biggest threat to the next team I'll talk about, then I honestly don't know what the hell does. 

Sure sign of trouble - You can't really use the overall youth of this team as an excuse and I won't either.  They've come too far along.  Rather, the bigger worry I have is the overall physicality aspect where the Gusties have some room to grow here and that aspect could rear its ugly head if they indeed get to play the team I'll talk about next.   

1.  Concordia - Many, including yours truly, have been waiting for the Cobbers to finally emerge as a true contender for top honors in the MIAC and although they've had two teams flirt with that notion over the last few years, none of those teams were as deep and complete as this current Concordia team.  In many ways, this team reminds me of that great 1986-87 Iowa team (my alma mater) with BJ Armstrong, Roy Marble, Ed Horton, Gerry "Sir Jamalot" Wright, Brad Lohaus, et al and was deeper than most nuclear submarines that went 30-5 and SHOULD have won the whole ball of wax that season but I digress.  And while that dip into nostalgia might be, okay, a LITTLE unfair to this group, Head Coach Kim Wagers certainly has all the pieces in place to not only win this thing but to make a deep run in the Big Dance as well.  It really all starts with sophomore forward Maya Metcalf (16.2 ppg and 8.5 rebounds per game) and if she somehow doesn't win MIAC POY honors, then something is inherently wrong with the system here.  She's just that good and you certainly don't have to worry about the physicality aspect when it comes to her.  Senior guard Molly Musland is a bona fide threat from behind the arc and has no fear going up against bigger players when she has to.  Fellow senior guard Taya Jeffrey is arguably the glue that holds this team together and it's been awesome to see her transform from a seldom-used bench player to someone who got valuable minutes last season and now as someone who has blossomed into her full potential.  Senior point guard Taylor Safranski is as steady as they come and even though the stats would suggest that she doesn't score a bunch, she's one of the last players you'd want to leave behind the arc all by herself as she will make you pay dearly for that mistake.  Junior forward Genevieve Gruba sometimes seems to be the forgotten element in the overall Concordia attack but her 5'10" frame allows her to not only get into the paint for tough scores but also allows her to wreak havoc on the defensive and rebounding ends as well.  Then you've got to consider what Wagers and her staff have coming off the bench.  Freshman guard Kaitlyn Rohloff has already shown flashes of greatness and she's the likely heir apparent at the point guard spot but she's different as she can use flashy moves and score as well.  Then there's junior guard Alexa Snesrud who's as physical as they come and won't hesitate to mix it up in the paint with bigger players.  Fellow junior guard Olivia Hanson has already shown that she can be a big-time scoring threat and if that wasn't enough, you've also got players like sophomore guards Tatum Findley, Peyton Briedenbach and Brooklyn Christianson all ready to go if need be.  And if Wagers needs length in the frontcourt, she's set there as well as sophomore forward Kaia Gack and junior post Maci Wheeldon can both rebound as well as anyone in the MIAC.  Bottom line here:  This team is as loaded as they come.  But what's really cool about this team is that even though we've seen Metcalf steal the show on the scoring front several times this season, there have been others that have stepped up in other games.  In the season opener against UM-Morris, it was Wheeldon's 16 points leading the way.  Against UW-Stout and Carleton, Musland led the way 24 points both times.  Against Bethel in November, it was Jeffrey's 10 points that led the way and at GAC back on 1-31, it was Hanson's 16 points that led the way.  So while opponents may primarily put their focus on Metcalf, that doesn't mean others can't/won't step up.  And, in case you were wondering, there aren't many weak spots when it comes to Concordia.  Consider:  The Cobbers are second in the conference in total team offense and third in team defense not to mention second in margin of victory at 14.8.  Concordia is second in team FG percentage and tops in the conference in opponent FG percentage.  Need further proof?  The Cobbers are numero uno in team three-point percentage and second in opponent three-point percentage.  And Concordia is tops in combined team rebounds and team defensive rebounds.  And they're also tops in the conference in assist/turnover ratio as well.  In fact, the only thing that burns me when it comes to the Cobbers is that they're sixth in the conference in team free throw percentage and for a program that has had free throw shooting as one of its hallmark strengths, this should be upsetting.  However, I'm willing to give Concordia a pass on that for the time being.  But, make no mistake about it.  This is the team that, with everything they have at their disposal, should be the odds-on favorite to win the MIAC Championship Game - something that this program hasn't done since the 2010-11 season and that's a long dry spell.  And you know this team is more than capable of making a deep run in the Big Dance.  The big question is, are they really ready for the moment?  I think they are.  

Sure sign of trouble - It's arguably tough to find many scenarios where the Cobbers could falter in this thing although both GAC and Hamline both provide unique styles and matchups that could pose problems.  Free throw shooting could be a concern and that's the last thing you want to have rear its ugly head this time of year.

So there you have it.  Again, I have never seen a season in MIAC Women's Hoops like this one and it's just been so fun to watch.  And now we're getting into the REALLY fun part of it all.  As I said earlier, buckle up because this little party could be wild.  And while there's one team that's an obvious favorite, there's two or three others that could upset the whole apple cart.  As Michael Corleone said in The Godfather Part III, "Then no one is safe."  

Let's get this little party started, shall we?       

Sunday Update On The Bigger Picture - Simulated NCAA Tournament Field - 2-22-26

So wanted to give you an idea of what we might be looking at come Selection Monday on 3-2-26.  As you can tell, Concordia is in a solid spot right now as an overall number eleven seed and presumably in a very good spot to host a 1st/2nd round pod should they win the MIAC Championship Game next Saturday.  However, there are also a number of variables in play that could change all this.  First, keep in mind that the NCAA has the ubiquitous "500 Mile Rule" whereby any team that's within a 500-mile radius of a host school has to cover their own costs of transportation to the site event and as you can imagine, the NCAA Tournament Committee does their darndest for the first- and second-round pods.  But there are also situations where this isn't always possible either and, more often than not, schools out west or in Texas provide some logistical gymnastics for the committee.  As you can see, there are at least six teams within a 500-mile radius of the Fargo-Moorhead area - UW-La Crosse, Bethel, GAC, UW-River Falls, Wartburg and Bethany Lutheran - that could all easily fit into a pod hosted by Concordia.  Keep in mind though that there are three WIAC schools that are also prime candidates to host 1st/2nd round pods - UW-Oshkosh, UW-Whitewater and UW-Platteville - where any of these six aforementioned teams could easily fit in.  It's entirely possible that the committee shoves Concordia to a Texas location or an Oregon location - even as a number-one seed in a pod - just for seeding integrity purposes.  And that's precisely why I worry about what the committee might decide to do with Concordia should the win the MIAC Championship Game this next Saturday.  And I'll just come out and say right now that it's certainly not fair at all to Concordia if they do their due diligence in winning the MIAC Championship Game and get shoved out west or down to Texas to protect their number-one pod seed.  

Aside from that, you'll see that both Bethel and GAC are currently in very good positions right now and if there's any doubt about the Gusties, I think those are effectively erased if they win their semifinal playoff game on Thursday night to advance to the MIAC Championship Game.  But it's a much different story for both SMU and Hamline right now and the only path those two teams have is to get the automatic bid by winning the MIAC Championship Game. 

So right now it appears that the WIAC will once again be a five-bid league with the MIAC getting three teams in while both the ARC and UMAC will be one-bid leagues.

As always, please feel free to fire away with thoughts. 

 

MIAC Power Rankings For Sunday 2-22-26

Congrats to the regular season champs - Concordia! 

 Hard to believe that another regular season has come to a close so here's my final MIAC Power Rankings for this season:

1.  Concordia

2.  GAC

3.  Hamline

4.  Bethel

5.  SMU

6.  St. Scholastica

7.  CSB

8.  St. Kate's

9.  Carleton

10.  (tie) St. Olaf, Augsburg & Macalester

The Cobbers finished out the regular season in style and the way you would expect the newly-crowned regular season champs to do as they easily raced past St. Olaf at home in cavernous Memorial Auditorium this last Wednesday night before running over to the frigid, snowy shores of Gitche Gumee and throwing St. Scholastica into said body of water yesterday with an easy twenty-point victory.  With the regular season crown theirs as well as the top seed in the upcoming MIAC Playoffs, Concordia can now get healed up, refueled, re-energized, refocused and ready for Thursday night's semifinal action........GAC put an exclamation mark on a fabulous run since the first of the year that - even with the win over Bethel - started quietly enough but they finished with a fury as they first took out St. Scholastica in a snow-delayed affair this last Thursday night before claiming a huge win in the monster game with SMU yesterday that gives them the number-two seed in the upcoming MIAC Playoffs.  The scary thing about the Gusties is that they may just be starting to play their best basketball of the season.  

Speaking of scary, I honestly don't know if there's a scarier team out there than the Pipers right now.  True, I've long had doubts about the Pipers in years past and they found ways to live up to some of the mediocre expectations that many had for them.  And there was every reason to think in late January after their ten-game win streak came to a halt that they might go into their annual February swoon.  Instead, Hamline went 5-1 in the month of February and picked up a lot of steam in the process and that was more than evident as a huge home win against SMU this last Wednesday night coupled with yesterday's romp down the road at Leonard Center against Macalester validates them being in the third spot in my Power Rankings on this Sunday.  True, they "only" got the fifth-seed in the upcoming MIAC Playoffs as a reward for their hard work but trust me when I tell you, this is the last team ANYONE wants to play right now........Bethel meanwhile is, well, Bethel and they did the work they needed to do this last week in racing past Augsburg this last Wednesday night over at Si Melby Hall and then pounding St. Kate's into submission on Senior Day at home in Butler Center yesterday.  But there's still some lingering doubts and reservations that I've been having about them over the last couple of weeks - especially after the loss to said Hamline team back on 2-11 and even with the third seed in the upcoming MIAC Playoffs at their disposal, the Royals are the one team that has the most question marks swirling about them.

Just a mere week ago, things were looking oh so good for the Cardinals as they not only had the inside track to the number-two seed in the MIAC Playoffs but a reasonably strong NPI ranking to go with it as well with visions of an NCAA Tournament dancing through their heads.  But the party preparations proved to be premature as this young team ran into basketball's version of Stalingrad this last week as they not only got beat but beat up as well at Hamline this last Wednesday night before yesterday's tough loss at GAC.  SMU still has the fourth seed in the upcoming MIAC Playoffs in their back pocket but this young team hit the roughest of spots at precisely the worst time and now you have to wonder how much they have left in the tank........You certainly can't accuse the Saints for a lack of effort in any way these last two weeks.  More than anything, I think reality caught up with them more than anything as their last three losses came against SMU, and then more recently this last week against GAC this last Thursday night and yesterday against Concordia.  Still, it's a big step forward for this St. Scholastica team that's done a lot this season and they've got the sixth-seed in the MIAC Playoffs to show for it.

Two teams that fell just short this season - CSB and St. Kate's.  The Bennies figured at the very least to be in the mix and they certainly had a path but the three-game skid in late January/early February proved to be a killer and losing a great piece in the starting lineup in Megan Morgan hurt too.  The Wildcats meanwhile just couldn't seem to find any traction at all this year.  They had their moments - a big upset win over SMU at home in early January and knocking off Hamline on 1-31 over at venerable Hutton Arena but they just couldn't find any consistency this year.

Things were tough this season for the two teams in Northfield - St. Olaf and Carleton. But the Oles have a young roster and should be better next season under Head Coach Megan Lueck.  And they ended the season on a good note with a home win over crosstown rival Carleton.  Speaking of the Knights, they mirror their crosstown rival with very young roster and with only two seniors graduating, it will be interesting to see who Head Coach Tammy Metcalf-Filzen can bring in to the program in terms of recruits.

Augsburg is another team where youth is prevalent and it was arguably a struggle for Head Coach Mallie Doucette and her staff to find consistency.  But there's potential with these younger members and if the Auggies can develop some depth, they could return to their winning ways.  Despite their 3-21 overall record, Macalester proved to be a thorn in the side for many opponents this last season and with players like Mary Daley, Sydnee Smith and Kendall Bernbaum all slated to return for their senior seasons next year, the Scots will continue to be dangerous. 

Later on today, I'll have a look at the bigger picture and then tomorrow, I'll be providing my annual handicaps for the upcoming MIAC Playoffs.  I'll say this much - I've never seen a season quite like this in the MIAC where you had seven - maybe even eight - teams competing for six spots in the MIAC Playoffs and if anything, it only shows how truly tough and competitive this conference really is and I'm glad I get the opportunity to talk about it.  

We're getting into the REALLY fun time of the year now.  Buckle up everyone.     

SMU vs GAC 2-21-26

It may have been Senior Day at GAC on this Saturday but that didn't stop sophomore point guard Anna Goodman from having a big day in leading the Gusties to a huge win and the number-two seed in the MIAC Playoffs as well.  

 Made a very good trip down US Highway 169 and the Union Pacific's Mankato Sub mainline down to St. Peter on this sunny but cold Saturday for the regular season finale taking place at Gus Young Court in Lund Arena on the campus of Gustavus Adolphus College and this game on this day was a huge one with visiting SMU taking on host GAC with MIAC Playoff seeding and NCAA Tournament implications galore.  The Cardinals had their six-game win streak snapped on Wednesday night in a very tough loss to Hamline and were needing a win today to have a chance to not only hold onto the number-two seed position but also keep their NCAA Tournament hopes above water as well.  The Gusties meanwhile were enjoying a five-game win streak coming into this contest that not only had them in position to steal the number-two see in the MIAC Playoffs with a victory but were also hoping to bolster their NPI ranking and stay very much in the NCAA Tournament conversation as well.  Today was also Senior Day at GAC and the Gusties lone senior, guard Bobbie Bruns, was honored before tip-off.

SMU would draw first blood in this contest at the 9:02 mark of the opening period when freshman forward Ayla Olson made a hard drive into the lane for a finish but the Gusties would be quick to respond.  Slender junior forward Ella Peters would bury a "3" from the left wing area at the 8:39 mark and two free throws by fellow junior sharpshooting guard Kaitlyn Schaefer after she was fouled at the 7:26 mark had GAC up 5-2.  But the Cardinals would be quick to retaliate with back-to-back three-point bombs.  Sophomore combo guard/forward Julia Koch would bang home a "3" from the left corner area at the 6:45 mark and then sophomore reserve guard Emma Mann would bury a "3" of her own from the right top area at the 5:52 mark that put SMU back out in front 8-5.  Right back came the Gusties, however, as junior forward Kendyl Queensland used a burst of speed to connect on a lay-up at the 5:29 mark that cut the deficit to one at 8-7 and a short time later, sophomore point guard Anna Goodman would connect on a lay-up with 4:57 left that pushed GAC back out in front by a 9-8 count.  The Cardinals would retake the lead on a pair of free throws by Ayla Olson after she was fouled with 4:34 left but SMU's lead would be short-lived as the Gusties took it right back on a three-point bomb by sophomore reserve guard Olivia Grothaus from the left corner area with 4:10 left.  After a foiled SMU possession, GAC would up its lead to 15-10 when junior forward Whitley Ronn buried a "3" from the left wing area with 3:53 left and two free throws by reserve junior guard Peyton Stevemer after she was fouled with 3:20 left had the Gusties up 17-10.  A tough score in the paint by sophomore reserve forward Bella DeHaan with 2:40 left maintained the seven-point edge at 19-12 and with 1:37 left, Stevemer capped this surprising 12-2 run that made it a 21-12 game.  But the Cardinals were able to shore up their defenses before this first period was over as freshman reserve guard Hadley Sammons would drill a "3" from the right top area with 1:15 left and with just :00.2 left, point guard Lindsey Lettner somehow got a desperate jumper from the left wing area to cooperate that at least had SMU closer down 21-17 that brought this wild and weird first period to a close.

Determined to make up for the rough patch they had to endure coming down the home stretch of the first period, the Cardinals set out to make a statement at the outset of the second period.  Ayla Olson would make a hard drive into the lane for a finish at the 9:34 mark that brought SMU back to within a single possession down 21-19 and moments later, Sammons would connect on a lay-up in transition at the 9:14 mark after a Gustie turnover that leveled the contest at 21 and GAC Head Coach Laurie Kelly; not at all liking the developments, called a thirty-second timeout to get her troops reorganized.  That short stoppage in play appeared to pay dividends as Peters would quickly respond with back-to-back scores.  The River Falls, WI native would first knock down a jumper along the right baseline at the 9:00 mark and less than a minute later she would snare an offensive rebound for a putback that had the Gusties back out in front by a 25-21 count.  This time, however, the Cardinals would quick to make amends as Ayla Olson would connect on a pretty reverse lay-up at the 7:48 mark that also drew a foul and her ensuing "and one" had the deficit down to a point at 25-24.  SMU would stay in that one-point range down 27-26 when sophomore guard Brianna Nusbaum connected on a lay-up at the 6:22 mark and at the 5:11 mark, the Cardinals would poke back out in front again at 28-27 on a pair of free throws by Lettner that now also had SMU in the bonus as well.  With 3:40 left, a lay-yup by Ayla Olson got the Cardinals lead to 30-28 but GAC would not let its opponent get any headway.  Peters would connect on a short jumper from the right side with 2:38 left that tied the game at 30-all and a short time later Peters would follow that up with a lay-up in transition with 2:13 left that pushed the Gusties back into the lead at 32-30.  SMU would get this contest knotted up again at 32 a piece when Koch made a hard drive for a finish with 1:22 left but GAC's Ronn would counter with a lay-up with 1:12 left that allowed the Gusties to take a slim 34-32 lead into the locker room at the halftime break in a game that had been a back-and-forth affair up to this point.

But this Cardinals team was short-handed on this day as they were without the services of sophomore forward Rylie Sternquist who suffered an apparent concussion during the Hamline game on Wednesday night and didn't travel with the team to St. Peter on this day.  To make matters worse, Nusbaum was arguably playing at about 80-85% on this day as she suffered a bruised tailbone in the Hamline game as well so to say that SMU was playing in conditions where their margin for error was quite slim would be an understatement to say the least.  And that worry for SMU Head Coach Courtney Shelton came to the forefront in the early stages of the third period when junior forward Kali Olson picked up her third foul of the afternoon and Shelton had no choice but to yank her to the pine for preservation purposes and go guard-heavy for a spell.  That opened the door somewhat for the Gusties to gradually expand their lead as Goodman would use a burst of speed to connect on a lay-up at the 7:53 mark to make it a 36-32 game and a lay-up by Ronn at the 7:09 mark maintained the four-point edge at 38-34.  Stevermer would cash in on a pair of freebies after getting fouled at the 6:37 mark and when Ronn followed suit after getting fouled at the 6:00 mark, the Cardinals' Shelton had little choice but to take a match to a thirty-second timeout after absorbing this 8-2 run by GAC that now had SMU down by eight at 42-34.  The Cardinals were able to take a bite out of this deficit on a routine score in the paint by Ayla Olson at the 5:43 mark but the Gusties would restore the eight-point lead at 44-36 when Stevermer made a tough drive along the left baseline for a finish with 4:50 left.  Things would deteriorate even more for SMU when Koch had to retreat to the bench after collecting her third foul on this day with 3:38 left and the Gusties were quick to pounce on this opportunity as Ronn would connect with a jumper from the right elbow area with 2:58 left that now gave GAC at ten-point cushion at 46-36.  It's easy to see how the Cardinals could have had their dam broken right there but instead they were able to make some quick repairs and get the deficit reduced a bit.  Sammons would make a hard drive for a finish with 2:26 left that had the deficit down to eight at 46-38 and despite Kali Olson retreating to the bench after picking up her fourth foul with 2:19 left, younger sis Ayla Olson would get a pair of free throws to go down after getting fouled with 1:51 left that slimmed the deficit down to seven at 47-40.  With 1:18 left, Ayla Olson would strike again with a tough score in the paint that would keep SMU in that seven-point range down 49-42.  Koch would have to make a return trip to the bench after picking up her fourth foul of the day with 1:08 left but Ayla Olson would come to the rescue again by knocking down a pair of free throws after getting fouled with :51.1 left that kept the Cardinals in that seven-point range down 51-44 so despite so many things going against them in this third period, SMU found a way to be resourceful when they had to and were still very much in the thick of things as this one morphed into the fourth period.

The Gusties were anxious to open up some more space once the fourth period was underway and a short jumper from the left side by Peters at the 9:10 mark got GAC's lead to nine at 53-44 but they soon found the Cardinals to be uncooperative guests in their building.  Ayla Olson would strike again at the 8:47 mark with a drive into the lane for a finish that also drew a foul and her ensuing "and one" not only cut the deficit to six at 53-47 but now the Gusties' Kendyl Queensland had to retreat to the bench with her fourth foul of the day.  SMU would keep Ayla Olson as its focal point of offensive production and at the 7:55 mark she would get a pair of free throws to go down that drew the Cardinals closer down 53-49.  Then Koch; back in the game with those four fouls, would come through with a huge three-point bomb from the right top area that suddenly had SMU right back where they wanted to be; down just a single point at 53-52 and one had to figure that this was the Cardinals window of opportunity right here.  GAC's Laurie Kelly certainly had to be thinking in those same terms as she quickly saw her squad facing a danger point and she wasted little time in taking a match to a timeout as she needed to make some quick adjustments.  This stoppage in play proved to be exactly what this young Gustie team needed to get refocused again.  Grothaus would yank an offensive rebound for a putback at the 6:59 mark and then Goodman would uncork a three-point bomb from the right corner area a short time later at the 6:21 mark that stretched GAC's lead to six at 58-52.  The Cardinals were able to cut the deficit down to five at 58-53 when Ayla Olson got one free throw to go down after getting fouled at the 5:56 mark but on the Gusties' subsequent possession, Goodman would again find her groove from behind the arc with a bomb from the left wing area at the 5:41 mark that upped GAC's lead to eight at 61-53 and now SMU's Shelton; who just a few moments ago had her squad in prime position down by just one, saw that window quickly closing and took a match to a timeout in hopes of finding some quick solutions.  But the Gusties would again get their lead to double digits at 63-53 when Goodman connected on a lay-up with 4:56 left before the Cardinals could start making inroads again.  Ayla Olson would snare an offensive rebound for a putback with 4:35 left and then Lettner would bury a "3" from the left corner area with 3:05 left that had SMU back to within striking distance again down 63-58.  But the Cardinals would never see themselves get back to within a single possession again as GAC always found answers when they had to.  Goodman would drop a pair of free throws after getting fouled with 2:43 left that not only grew the Gusties' lead to 65-58 but now SMU's Koch was done for the day as well after collecting her fifth and final foul plus GAC was now in the bonus as well.  Peters would get one free throw to go down after getting fouled with 2:25 left to make it a 66-58 game and the Gusties would maintain this eight-point lead when sophomore reserve forward Bella Sutch connected on a lay-up with 1:42 left.  The Cardinals would attempt one last-ditch push as Ayla Olson would get one free throw to go down after getting fouled with 1:27 left and would get two more to go down after getting fouled with :50.6 left that had the deficit down to five at 68-63.  GAC's Kelly would take a timeout at this point to draw up strategy to protect this five-point lead and, knowing the opponent would have to foul to preserve clock, Stevermer would get fouled with :45.6 left and she would knock down both free throw attempts to make it a 70-63 game.  SMU's Shelton would take a match to another timeout and with :31.3, the Cardinals would again cut the deficit down to five as Mann would knock down a pair of free throws after getting fouled.  Now it was GAC''s Kelly's turn to burn another timeout and the Cardinals would foul the Gusties' Goodman and she would respond with a pair of freebies with :29 left that made it a seven-point game again at 72-65.  SMU's Shelton would follow suit by using her last timeout in hopes of dialing up a miracle and with :18 left, the Cardinals got something in the form of that as Lettner would bang home a "3" from the left wing area that now had the deficit down to four at 72-68.  The Gusties' Kelly would then take her final timeout to set up strategy and with :16.3 left, Peters would get one free throw to go down that made it 73-68.  The Cardinals would launch one last desperate heave when freshman reserve guard Alexis Kube's three-point attempt went awry with :06.4 left and GAC would dribble this one out to not only preserve the crucial victory but perhaps just as important, snare the second-seed in the upcoming MIAC Playoffs as well.  

It took a little bit but was I was able to catch up with SMU's Shelton afterward and I had to ask her right away if she was able to advise on the status of the Cardinals' Sternquist for this next week - especially now with SMU relegated to the fourth seed in the upcoming MIAC Playoffs after this loss.  "We're hoping she'll be available and ready to go" she said.  But, as we all know, concussion protocol is nothing anyone wants to fool around with and it's safe to say that the Cardinals' athletic and training staff will not hesitate to err on the side of safety in this matter.  Probably just as important is the overall health of Nusbaum who again was not operating at a full 100% today with the bruised tailbone issue and really wasn't much of a factor in this game either which put another dent into SMU's chances on this day.  But as Shelton emphasized, you can only control what you can control and now they have to find a way to get this last week out of their collective systems and get refocused and ready for Hamline this coming Tuesday evening which will not be an easy chore regardless if the game is at Winona, in St Paul or on the moon.  Meanwhile, the mood was indeed festive on the GAC side as a party was held downstairs for the Gusties' Bruns on this Senior Day and Kelly was naturally relaxed and having fun catching up with some former Gustie greats when I caught up with her.  Again, you see this young team of hers taking a step in the right direction with every game.  And remember, we saw this team go through a very rough stage back in December when they lost four out of their six games that month.  What have they done after the first of year?  Well, they went 13-2 with the only two blemishes coming at the hands of league champ Concordia and for a coach that had to replace three fifth-year seniors and three fourth-year seniors, that's one helluva coaching job if you ask me.  The other thing too is that I also think that this current Gustie team is slowly carving its own identity and I think it's important that they do that so that there's no unfair comparisons made between this team and the teams of the last few years with the aforementioned senior group from 2025.  We saw this team rise to the occasion when it had to and they responded positively when they faced pressure situations in this game.  And all this has parlayed into not only the number two seed in the MIAC Playoffs but a very strong NPI ranking as well which should have them in very good shape for Selection Monday on 3-2.  

Again, I think it goes without saying that SMU had a very small margin for error on this day with the injury situation they're facing at the moment.  In order for them to have come out on top on this day, they were going to have to have a lot of things go right for them and it just didn't happen when it counted.  Despite the monster game from Ayla Olson on this day (which I'll have more on in a bit), GAC still owned a 34-29 edge on the boards.  The Cardinals did have the edge in points in the paint (thanks largely to Ayla Olson) at 30-26 and they also had a 12-7 edge in those all-important "second chance" points.  But GAC had the edge in points off of turnovers (17-11), fast break points (20-5) and bench points at 25-12 and that was just too much for SMU to overcome.  And the Cardinals' fortunes only worsened once Koch and Kali Olson got into foul trouble as well.  And SMU could have been a bit better from the charity stripe on this day as they finished going 18-23 for 78.3% and in a close game like this one was, that's leaving some critical points on the table.  Conversely for the Gusties, I was pleasantly surprised to see they were 22-26 for 84.6% which isn't bad at all.  

All I can do is heap praises on SMU's Ayla Olson's efforts on this day as she willingly put her team on her shoulders and easily led all scorers with her 32 points and she just missed out on a "double double" with her eight rebounds.  Don't be surprised if you see another big performance out of her this coming Tuesday night against Hamline.  Lettner, too, had to step up on this day as she finished with 10 points.  Balanced scoring meanwhile was crucial for the Gusties in this game and they certainly got it as Goodman led the way with her 18 points - something that you ordinarily wouldn't expect out of your point guard but Goodman is far from ordinary.  Then you had Stevermer coming off the bench and she poured in 14 points and both Peters and Ronn were right behind as they both finished with 13 points a piece.  When GAC can get this type of balanced scoring, they can win games and they won a big one on this day.