Oh yeah, that time of the year again to try and break down the MIAC Playoffs in what has been an incredibly unpredictable year.....Let's see I can make some sense out of all this and try and predict what MAY happen.
6. GAC - This has been arguably a trying season under new Head Coach Laurie Kelly that saw the Gusties bolt out to a good start only to have the bottom almost fall out come mid/late January. The tailspin this squad endured makes me hesitant to even think that they would even have a remote chance of doing the unthinkable. But the Gusties do have one element in their favor that some of the other teams in this mix don't have - experience. Seniors Abby Rothenbuehler, Kelsey Florian and Steph Comer have all been in these battles in past seasons and know what it takes to win these games. Junior Julia Dysthie can be one of the most dangerous players out there and can be deadly behind the arc. But if the Gusties are going to do this, they're going to have to do it the hard way - on the road.
Sure sign of trouble - If the turnovers start piling up early on and Rothenbuehler gets into foul trouble before halftime.
5. Hamline - This wildly unpredictable team has been one of the toughest puzzles to try and figure out this season and it's equally difficult to predict their chances beginning with tonight up at CSB. Yet if there's a longshot in this mix that can pull this off and shock the world in the process it's this group. There is simply no other team in the conference that possesses the kind of speed and athleticism they have and it's little wonder that a lot of teams hate having to play Hamline. They also have a trio of seniors who can light it up behind the arc as well; Steph Pilgrm, Cassidy Vogt and Kara Poirer. They are not a "big" team by any means and depth can be an issue for this squad. Yet, given their body of work during the regular season (road wins at both Concordia and UST) I can't put it completely past them to pull this off.
Sure sign of trouble - If the "3's" aren't falling and they are forced to play a slower-tempo halfcourt game where they get beat up in the paint.
4. CSB - The Blazers were aruably the hottest team in the conference not long ago; ripping off ten straight wins in a period from mid-January to early February; capped off by the big home win against Concordia. They then leveled off somewhat; dropping two straight before rallying at home in the regular season finale vs St. Olaf. This is a relatively young team but it does have two seniors who are leading the way nicely for Mike Durbin's squad - Whitney Canton and Morgan Dale. While this team has a lot of potential for the future, I think it's probably a bridge too far for this team to win it all and the late road losses to both UST and SMU I think reflect my cautious approach with this group.
Sure sign of trouble - If they start getting beat at the post position (especially now w/o Hylla) and Canton and the Lueck Sisters can't bail them out behind the arc.
3. SMU - Clearly one of the more pleasant surprises in this conference has been the emergence of former Cobber great Mandy Pearson's squad into one of the upper echelon teams in the MIAC. I only got to see them play once this season but was very impressed with what I saw. They have a great scorer from the outside in Jessica Thone and a dual big threat in both senior Jamie Stefely and junior post Courtney Euerle plus a very underrated player, IMHO, in Octavia Brown. Plus, you really have to like their body of work as well (18-4 conference, 21-4 overall) which SHOULD be good enough to get them into the Big Dance if they can manage to get past GAC tonight at home in Winona. I do have a bit of concern wrt their lack of experience in the MIAC playoffs despite their win at St. Olaf last year before falling to UST but this is a team that definitely can pull it off if everything fall into place for them just right.
Sure sign of trouble - If Euerle gets bottled up down low and Thone is unable to come to the rescue behind the arc.
2. UST - You had to wonder at one point in the season when the Tommies suddenly lost four out of six games in January if their aura of invincibility had finally dried up and if they were now mortal like the rest of us. Well, Ruth Sinn's squad proved that they could not only recover despite the inuries and other off-court happenings that tried this squad mightily but also look as good as ever in the latter stages of the regular season. Taylor Young LOOKS to be 100% right now and Anna Smith has done well in filling in for Maggie Weiers who was lost in the second game of the season to injury. The Tommies have also had a lot of young players step up this year as well. The bottom line here is that this team made a serious run to the whole ball of wax last year (probably should have won it) and they will be awfully tough for anyone to knock off whether it's at Schoenecker Arena or on the road.
Sure sign of trouble - If Young or Kellie Ring should be victim to a freak injury. The Tommies NEED those two. It's as simple as that.
1. Concordia - Am not at all surprised to see Jessica Rahman's squad in this spot as they ALWAYS seem to be in the thick of things in one way or another this time of the year. Having the #1 seed is a bit of a change but if there's one team that can handle it, it's these guys. They're not particularly flashy and they won't necessarily "wow" you with anything they do out there. They're just coldly and brutally efficient. At the same time, this paradoxically seems to be their undoing on the national stage as they haven't been past the first round in the NCAA Tournament yet in trips to both Wisconsin and Iowa in recent years. Still, I really like the core of this squad; seniors Emily Thesing and Tricia Sorensen and sophomore sharpshooter Alley Fisher and having the odds being on your side give this team the inside track to repeat their feat from two years ago.
Sure sign of trouble - If Lippert gets into early foul trouble the burden down low will fall on reserve junior Kelsey Walloch. And Fisher and Thesing have to keep defenses honest by hitting enough treys as well.
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