Has another MIAC regular season come and gone already? Seems like it was just yesterday when things were really getting going and you could look forward to some tasty match-ups. But, here we are in late February and it's MIAC Playoff time and there are definitely some tasty match-ups in the offing. Let's take a look at each team and their chances.
6. CSB - The Blazers got the sixth spot by virtue of their win this last Saturday at home against Augsburg in a tough, hard fought battle. That kind of seems to have been CSB's mantra lately - close, hard-fought battles where they don't really beat anyone impressively and also manage to lose those close games as well. Save for a stretch back in January where they won six out of seven games, the Blazers have not only been wildly inconsistent, they've also struggled offensively as well; breaking the 60-point mark only once during the month of February. Just glancing at the box scores of the last five games have revealed some not so pretty numbers. Interestingly enough, it's not been just one player who has stepped to the forefront for this team. One night it might be Nikki Foken, one night it might be Chelsey Guetter, another night it might be Grace Wolhowe. So the Blazers do have some weapons on offense and they have recorded a win at home against Concordia and a big overtime road win at GAC so you can't completely count this team out.
Sure sign of trouble - If the Blazers get down by double digits early down in St. Peter, I really don't think they have the firepower to recover.
5. Bethel - It has to be something of a letdown for this Royal team that had such high expectations after last year's 21-win season that saw them get to the MIAC Championship Game and get their ticket punched to the Dance - and now find themselves mired in the fifth spot. I suppose it could be worse and, in some ways, they should feel pretty fortunate to be where they're at right now considering how things were going for them back in December and January. Somehow, the Royals righted the ship and won six out of their last seven games. Still, it's been something of a rough ride for Bethel which has seemed to struggle with consistency and defense; the latter in which they take so much pride in. The fact that they'll now have to go on the road - beginning up at Concordia on Tuesday night to start this journey - makes their task that much more daunting. At the same time, this would be one team I would just as soon avoid playing if I could. When the Royals start turning the screws slowly on defense and get easy transition points out of turnovers and when Kalli Zimmerman can wheel and deal down in the lane and draw fouls, they can be a very tough team to beat. The big question is, which Rachel Parupsky will show up? The one who dominated the paint last year or the one that struggled at times this season?
Sure sign of trouble - If Parupsky gets into foul trouble early and the load down low falls on freshman Hannah Johnson which forces the Royals to rely on perimeter shooting.
4. Concordia - The Corn finds itself in a familiar spot - in the playoffs again at about the number three or four spot as they've been an amazingly consistent group over the years. At the same time, the Cobbers have been in something of a rut the last couple of seasons playoff-wise and haven't advanced to the MIAC Championship Game since 2013. And this time around could quite possibly be the same song and dance with Bethel coming to town on Tuesday night. On the other hand, there is reason for hope as this is a very balanced team offensively that normally sees Jenna Januschka and Greta Walsh leading the way with scoring and Olivia "Dibs" Johnson cleaning the glass but Head Coach Jessica Rahman's bench play has been pretty productive as well. Again, this is not a team that's going to wow you with flashy play or glitzy stars. Just solid team play and a defense that can hound you to death. Is it enough this time around to get to the MIAC Championship Game? Probably not but if they can get past Bethel on Tuesday night they can at least roll the dice when they would have to go to UST in the semis. I do think someone else is going to have to step up and have a big game or two who normally wouldn't be expected to do that. Hannah Jeske? Katie Rosenfeldt? Some of the same questions I had last year about this team at this time still linger.
Sure sign of trouble - If Januschka can't get going down low and if Johnson gets into early foul trouble, things could fall apart quickly.
3. GAC - The Gusties finally took that big step forward this season under Head Coach Laurie Kelly and now finally get to host a playoff game at Lund Center. Had it not been for that overtime loss at home to CSB back in January, GAC might very well be looking at being in the number two seed position. Still, they're in a much, much better spot than they were a year ago and, more importantly, they're arguably playing their best basketball at precisely the right time; having won eight of their last nine games. They appear to be completely healthy as well going into the playoff round which was not the case last year. The Gusties have, IMHO, the best point guard in the conference in Mikayla Miller who can not only do damage from the perimeter but can also get down in the paint and do some dirty work as well. A pretty solid supporting cast also bolsters this team's hopes. Senior Lindsey Johnson not only provides great leadership but can also be a three-point threat. There have also been some young faces that have burst onto the scene. Freshmen Brooke Lemke, Justine Lee and Taylor Anderson all have had nice outings. I think GAC has what it takes to get past CSB in the quarterfinal round at home. They would then have to go to SMU - a place where they got absolutely hammered last year in the quarterfinal round. I really think this team is much, much farther along from where they were last year and if there's one darkhorse in the MIAC playoffs, it's these guys. They have a chance - an outside chance - to advance to the MIAC Championship Game with 21 wins where they could roll the dice and feel pretty confident about their chances of getting an invite to the Big Dance which would be a huge step forward to getting back into elite status where the Gusties should be.
Sure sign of trouble - If the Gusties start giving up a lot of easy points down low and they can't get the offensive production from their bench players to help out Miller.
2. SMU - The Cardinals have put together a very good 20-5 record under first year Head Coach Brent Pollari who, IMHO, deserves the COY award from his MIAC peers for being able to step right in and take a team into the second seed of the MIAC playoffs after many, including yours truly, thought this team might be on a downward slide after Mandy Pearson left to take the job at UM-Duluth. Instead, they shocked everybody by holding onto first place at the beginning of the season and the fact that they eventually got knocked out of the top perch by UST is nothing to hang your head about. Still, some of the suspicions I had about this team's flaws were glaringly revealed this last Saturday when they got punched in the mouth by UST over at Schoenecker Arena in what may very well prove to be a preview of the MIAC Championship Game this coming weekend. On the positive side, the Cardinals have an exceptionally skilled backcourt with Bridget Pethke and Emma Schaefer and a very underrated sharp shooter in Micaela Meredith. Freshman Brandi Blattner; now back in action again, has been that anchor down low that SMU has so desperately needed and has had some great outings already. On the downside, this team seems to lack that one thing that could very well keep them from taking things to the next level - that killer instinct. They've also faltered a bit down the stretch as a loss at Bethel and escape jobs against both Carleton and St. Kate's would suggest. They'll likely have to face a very hot GAC team in the semifinals at home in Winona which could very well be the game to watch of this whole thing. Should they find a way to hold on and win that, they can then at least feel a bit more at ease about getting that bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Sure sign of trouble - The Cardinals have been very vulnerable down low and they can ill-afford to have Pethke and Schaefer carrying the entire load for this team.
1. UST - Well, well, well. Look who's number one again? It's not so much that the Tommies find themselves as king of the mountain again but rather how they got there. Earlier in the season, losses to both St. Kate's and Wheaton gave reason to think that maybe the Purple Reign might finally be over. Then there was that twenty-point home loss to Bethel in early January that sent shock waves throughout the MIAC. After those hiccups, UST got its act together and pretty much plowed the road the rest of the way, ripping off twelve straight wins including the regular season clincher against SMU this last Saturday that gives them a 22-3 record and assures them of an invite to the Dance. At the same time, let's get this out of the way. This is NOT the star-studded line-up that you saw last year with Maggie Weiers, Anna Smith, Jen Dockter, et al. Rather, this is a true team effort with Katie Stone, Kaitlin Langer, Lauren Fischer and Paige Gernes anchoring the ship and a host of young newbies bursting onto the scene. Freshmen Lucia Renikoff, Kaylie Brazil and Morganne Gruber along with sophomore Maddie Wolkow have been major contributors in all facets of the game. The scary thing is that the Tommies now seem to be jelling at just the right time and even Head Coach Ruth Sinn admitted as much last weekend after the victory over SMU. If they stay focused and locked in on each possession, it's difficult to envision a scenario where anyone comes in and beats them. Are they a team that can win the whole ball of wax in the NCAA Tournament? Probably not but they have the goods to make a nice run at it.
Sure sing of trouble - Aside from a devastating injury or two, I really can't think of any save for a nasty little habit the Tommies still seem to have for accumulating fouls.
So there you have it. I freaking love this time of the year! So let the Gumball Rally begin baby!
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