Ah, here we are again at the most wonderful time of the year as we gear up for this year's version of the upcoming MIAC Playoffs. There's still pretty much the same cast of characters from the last couple of seasons but some of these teams are in different positions than they were a year ago. And we've also got a new kid on the block in the form of a young team down in Winona that's looking to make a name for itself. And we've got a pair of teams that are sharing the MIAC regular season title and are "locks" to make the NCAA Tournament and both also have a very good chance of hosting 1st/2nd round pods at their respective facilities. In short, we've got a little bit of everything this year and that alone always makes this so fun. So let's break this little party down like we always do; going from bottom to top.
6. SMU - It seems kind of funny when I go back to my MIAC predictions from this last fall and I tagged the Cardinals to finish last this year. And look, given how things went for SMU the last couple of seasons and with all the young players they had along with a new coach and a new system, you had to figure it was going to take a while for the tree to grow down there. And even though they knocked off St. Kates's at their place in December, SMU didn't really start turning heads until right after the first of the year when they went up to Moorhead and pulled off a huge upset against Concordia. And sure, they went through a rough patch for a bit, they recovered and went on a five-game win streak to close out the regular season and snare the sixth spot. I think what grabs you first is when you look at the roster of this team and see how incredibly young they are. Two freshmen - guard Brianna Nusbaum and forward Rylie Sternquist - lead the Cardinals in scoring with 13.8 and 11.7 ppg, respectively. Another youngster, freshman forward Kalli Olson, is solid on both ends of the floor averaging 8.5 ppg and 8.3 rebounds per game. Freshman combo guard/forward Julia Koch and junior guard Lindsay Lettner are also both very important pieces to the overall SMU attack. What's impressive about this young Cardinals team is that they're fifth in the conference in offense averaging 61.6 ppg which is pretty darn good, all things considered. Overall team defense is an issue as SMU is ninth in the conference at 62.5 ppg but hey, you gotta let this tree grow here a little, right? Ultimately, I think one can make the argument that there's a ceiling for this team with the youth factor involved and it's tough to imagine them getting past Hamline in their quarterfinal game Tuesday night but make no mistake about it - there's something special brewing down on US Highway 61 and the CPKC River Sub mainline and it'll be interesting to see how quickly Head Coach Courtney Shelton can bring this team around.
Sure sign of trouble - As I mentioned, the youth factor will likely be their downfall and they can ill-afford to get into a big hole early.
5. CSB - Oh, what COULD have been for the Bennies had they just been able to take care of business where they should have. But a four-game skid back in early/mid-January proved costly and even though they tied Concordia for fourth place in the regular season standings, they lost the head-to-head factor as the Cobbers swept CSB in the regular season so once again, the Bennies are forced to take their show back on the road again; ironically enough, up at Concordia on Tuesday night in the other quarterfinal game. But before anyone starts feeling sorry for CSB, one had better realize that this is a squad that has a nice mix of experience and youth that's blended together quite well and I don't have to be the one to tell you that Head Coach Mike Durbin knows his Xs and Os as well as anyone. This is a team that knows how to put points on the board and in bunches when they're clicking. The Bennies are led by senior guard Sophia Jonas (12.4 ppg) who can dart into traffic for a tough finish or slay you from downtown. Junior guard Megan Morgan 12.0 ppg) has an uncanny ability to make those hard drives into the lane for tough finishes and can burn you with her trademark southpaw three-point bombs. Freshman point guard Lauren Arnold (9.0 ppg) might be the youngster in this mix but she's been playing like a seasoned veteran and doesn't back down from anyone. Senior combo guard/forward Olivia Boily (8.6 ppg) can be a threat to drive along the baseline for a score and can grab those tough rebounds as well. We know that CSB can be a scoring machine at times and they're fourth in the MIAC in total offense averaging 65.6 ppg. But the ultimate downfall for the Bennies this season has been on the defensive end where they rank eighth in the conference in total defense giving up 61.1 ppg. The other glaring red flag for this CSB team is rebounding where the Bennies are in next to last place in the conference with 32,8 rebounds per game. That one area has cost CSB some games this year and you'd have to think that could rear its ugly head again come Tuesday night.
Sure sign of trouble - If the Bennies can't rebound, then they've got to make up for it somehow on the other end - it's that simple. If they can't, it'll be another early exit.
4. Concordia - To say that hopes were high up in Fargo-Moorhead coming into this season after the Cobbers made it to their second straight MIAC Championship Game and also got that long-awaited invite to the Dance this last season would be something of an understatement. The season started out well enough but then a four-game skid in late November and early December - including bad losses to both UW-River Falls and UW-La Crosse - put Concordia in an early bad spot and even though they appeared to right the ship in a holiday tournament beating both Washington & Lee and Case Western Reserve handily, things soon went to hell in a handbasket for the Cobbers right after the first of the year when they suffered a shocking loss at home to a young SMU team which really set the tone for the rest of the regular season. Two more bad losses - on the road at St. Kate's and at Macalester had to be absorbed as well and even though they took care of business elsewhere where you expected them to, they weren't terribly impressive in doing so. In short, one could say that this season has been nothing less than a disappointment for Concordia. At the same time, I think there's been reasons for that and I think one could surmise that the biggest one is that they miss a certain player who wore #20 for them last season and has now graduated. As many times as I've watched this team play this year, something just seemed "off" and things never quite jelled the way many thought they would. It was like you didn't know exactly what the identity of this team was. But, it's not all doom and gloom in the Red River Valley as the Cobbers still have two very important pieces they can - and have had to - rely on. Senior guard Carlee Sieben (15.9 ppg) is always a threat whether its darting into the lane for a score or unleashing three-point bombs from downtown. And what can you say about fellow senior forward Makayla Anderson (15.2 ppg) who can score down low or unleash a "3" when she's on the high post? And she's always there when you need rebounding as she averages 8.3 rebounds a game. Fellow seniors - guard Jordyn Kahler (6.6 ppg) and Greta Tollefson (6.9 ppg) are also important pieces to the overall Cobber attack. The immediate concern right now for Concordia swirls around the availability of junior point guard Taylor Safranski (4.0 ppg) who didn't play the last two regular season games due to an apparent injury. If she can't go, Head Coach Kim Wagers will likely have to call upon fellow junior guard Molly Musland (4.3 ppg) to run the spot. The one big positive for the Cobbers is their hallmark strength - free throw shooting where they're top in the MIAC at 76.8%. In total offense, Concordia is also at the top as they average 68.7 ppg. But it's another story on the other end of the floor where the Cobbers are seventh in the conference giving up 61.1 ppg and they're also seventh in the conference in total rebounds with 35.7 rebounds a game. And even though they rank high in the conference in turnover margin and Assist/Turnover Ratio, we've seen time and time again where the turnover bugaboo rears its ugly head when things start going south for Concordia. I've said this before after covering their games this season and I'll say it again here: The Cobbers absolutely have to give as much help as possible to the Sieben/Anderson scoring duo if they want to have any chance of doing the otherwise unthinkable here and it doesn't matter who it comes from. But they've got to have that. It's as simple as that.
Sure sign of trouble - Well, we've seen it before.....When the shots aren't falling for either Sieben or Anderson and no one else can step up and they start coughing the rock up like someone with emphysema.
3. Hamline - The Pipers find themselves back in the third spot this season and if you follow the MIAC Women's Hoops scene close enough, that's likely where you had to figure they'd settle in at. They certainly didn't do anything to warrant sliding down to a lower spot but they weren't able to do enough to move any higher either. And that kind of seems to be the rut that Hamline's been in the last couple two or three years. Having said that, dismissing this team and its chances in this little party would be a grave mistake as this squad runs on high octane and more often than not is off to the races when they hit the floor as they love the up-temp game. And this is a team that loves to light up the scoreboard like a pinball machine and they've got all the pieces to do that. It's no surprise at all that junior guard Camille Cummings is one of the premier three-point shooters in the MIAC and she also leads the way for the Pipers with her 14.7 ppg. But one of more pleasant surprises for Head Coach Josh Hersch and his staff has been the emergence of sophomore guard Yasmeen Abed (10.0 ppg) and she could do some big things for Hamline in the MIAC Playoffs. Senior point guard Kate Trachsel (8.4 ppg) has been her steady, reliable self running this high-octane attack and sophomore guard Lauren Cooper (4.4 ppg) has been a very nice addition to this starting lineup. One piece that has been missing since early January; junior combo guard/forward Sophie Stork is unfortunate to be sure but sophomore forward Marina LaFreniere has stepped up to the plate and she's backed up by capable senior forward Kate Van Helden. And Hersch has some very good players coming off the bench in sophomore combo guard/forward Anna Rynkiewich and junior combo guard forward Josie Wiebusch along with freshman guard Josie Schmidt and Hersch knows how to move his chess pieces when he has to. When you look at the team statistics for Hamline, it's kind of a confounding proposition. Consider: They're sixth in the conference in team offense at 61.2 ppg but they're actually second in the league in team defense in holding opponents to 51.0 ppg. In team offensive rebounds, Hamline's at the top of the pack as they average 13.4 rebounds a game. But they're dead last in defensive rebounds with 22.4 rebounds a game. So what gives here? One area of definite concern is at the charity stripe where the Pipers are eighth in the conference at 67.4% and that's a number that will cost you sooner rather than later. Somehow, you just know that this team is capable of so much more but then reality sets in when they run into a team like Bethel or GAC. As good as this team is, you just have a feeling that reality is going to set in sooner than what they'd like.
Sure sign of trouble - Getting forced into a slower half-court game against a bigger, more physical opponent (a la GAC or Bethel) would be the worst possible scenario for this team.
2. GAC - How in God's name did the Gusties - with only one blemish on their record this season - get relegated to the second seed this time around? Well, that's what'll happen when you lose a coin flip to a team that had an identical conference record as you did (Bethel). But, before despair and pessimism sets in with Gustieland, let's remember a few things: GAC is third in the MIAC in team offense averaging 67.5 ppg and numero uno in team defense holding opponents to 47.7 ppg. Team FG percentage and Opponent FG percentage? Gusties lead both categories. Rebounding margin? GAC is second with a +6.0 margin. The Gusties are also second in team FT percentage at 76.6% and they're tops in opponent three-point shooting percentage. Maybe the only area of concern I would have for GAC are combined team rebounds and team offensive rebounds where they don't rank that high but I can also push those concerns aside and here's why: Not one, not two but THREE fifth-year seniors - guard Emma (not evil) Kniefel (14.9 ppg), guard Syd Hauger (9.5 ppg) and forward Izzy (Izzy Izzy, you're making me dizzy) Quick (5.7 ppg and 6.5 rebounds a game). And seniors Kylie Baranick (9.4 ppg) who runs the PG spot, Morgan Kelly (7.9 ppg) and Rachel Kawiecki (8.9 ppg) and Head Coach Laurie Kelly can easily interchange the last two as game situations warrant. I mean, this group has really been through it all - triumph, setbacks, tragedy and pretty much every competitive situation one could possibly conjure up. If that isn't enough, Laurie Kelly has got some very good and young pieces coming off the bench in sophomore forward Whitley Ronn, freshman combo guard/forward Olivia Grothaus, sophomore guard Ella Peters, sophomore guard Kendyl Queensland, sophomore guard Emily Bowron, and the new kid on the block with a ton of swag, freshman guard Anna Goodman. The only team I can ever remember going this deep was that 1986-87 Iowa team that should have won the whole ball of wax that year but I digress. This is a team that's a lock for the NCAA Tournament. This is a team that damn well better get a chance to host a 1st/2nd round pod at their place and they almost certainly will if the NPI numbers are correct. And this is, God willing, a team that will hopefully make a deep run in the Dance and really get a chance to enjoy the moment while doing it.
Sure sign of trouble - It's incredibly difficult to imagine a scenario where GAC finds a way to falter here, isn't it? Unless, of course, they come out flatter than a pancake like they did back on 1-18 when they suffered their only loss of the season - at home on a Saturday night to Bethel. But it would be the ultimate shock if that happened this time around.
1. Bethel - Back in October, I expected that Bethel would definitely be "better" this season than they were a year ago - certainly more consistent anyway. But there were a few stumbles coming out of the gate this season that did give one pause for concern: A loss in mid-November at UW-La Crosse, a blowout loss to Scranton down in Florida along with the home loss to UW-Stout right before the first of the year. But since that time, the Royals would get tripped up only once - at home to GAC early this month. In the end, it all worked out for Bethel as they won the coin toss to lay claim to the top seed in the MIAC Playoffs. We all know the modus operandi of this team and that's their defense which can gang up on opponents like those mean ol' raptors from the Jurassic Park movies and eat you alive. They're second in the conference in team offense averaging 67.8 ppg and its no secret that a lot of those scoring opportunities come off what the defense creates. You often see Bethel with a huge advantage in points off of turnovers after a game and that's really one of the things that makes the Royals so lethal. And Bethe's right up there in total team defense holding opponents to 53.8 ppg. I mean, there's been instances where this team has just simply shut opponents down (see Hamline back on 2-15). They may not always be pretty in doing things but then again, when you can play defense like that, why worry about the beauty contest aspect? And, to be sure, this Bethel team has a bevy of reliable scorers starting with senior combo guard/forward Elly Schmitz (14.3 ppg), fifth-year senior guard Anna Garfield (12.1 ppg) who's steady as a rock and sophomore Emily Erickson (11.0 ppg). But it doesn't end there by any means. Opponents also have to worry about fifth-year senior forward Lydia Hay and junior point guard Colette Duininck who is an absolute menace on defense and can slay you from three-point land too if she has to. Then, Head Coach Jon Herbrechtsmeyer may very well have one of the best sixth-players in the land in sophomore guard Macey Littlefield who can not only play defense but also come up big from downtown - and in bunches - which is very bad news for opponents. Throw in junior combo guard/forward Rosalie Penke, sophomore forward Cally Peterson and junior forward Alli Born and you can see why this team is such an incredible load for opponents with their defense and their length. It can be utterly nightmarish for opponents. Like GAC, they're a lock for the NCAA Tournament with their strong NPI numbers and they also have a very good chance at hosting a 1st/2nd round pod at their place which is very cool. It's funny in a way that this team, compared to the 2020 team, is deeper. But the only concern I would have for this squad is how they handle the big moment - whether it's in the MIAC Championship Game or in the Dance. We remember all too well the heartbreak that the 2020 team suffered in the first round of the Dance and it goes without saying that they want to avoid a repeat of that.
Sure sign of trouble - If the seemingly inevitable happens where the Royals and Gusties hook up for all the rubber in the MIAC Championship Game, Bethel can ill afford to have a poor shooting performance like they did back on 2-8 that saw them get into a hole that they couldn't get out of.
So there you have it. I'll be covering one of the Quarterfinal games on Tuesday night and one of the Semifinal games on Thursday night and, of course, the MIAC Championship Game on Saturday afternoon. Let's get this party started, shall we?!
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