So here we are on the eve of tomorrow's huge MIAC Championship Game between GAC and host Bethel in the rubber match between these two teams as they split their regular season series with each team winning on the road - Bethel winning in St. Peter on 1-18 and GAC returning the favor over in Arden Hills on 2-8. First off, both teams are "locks" for the NCAA Tournament regardless of what happens tomorrow so nobody's going to be sweating it out come Monday. And both have very strong NPI numbers so both appear to be in very good shape to host a 1st/2nd round pod at their facility which is even better. No, this one will be a battle for MIAC supremacy as these two teams had to share the regular season title and Bethel was able to lay claim to the number one seed via a friendly coin flip. This one to me is just going to be one of those knock 'em down, drag 'em out MIAC street fights and that's the way it should be. This one is going to be physical; no doubt about it. But who really has the edge here?
When I look at the box scores of the two games of the regular season series, you do see a few patterns emerging. In Bethel's win at St. Peter, they held the Gusties to 16-46 shooting for 34.8% from FG range and GAC had a miserable night from downtown going 7-18 for 38.9%. Even more striking from this game was that Bethel had a big advantage in points in the paint at 28-18 and also enjoyed a sizable advantage in points off of turnovers at 25-13. And, to be sure, Bethel shot really well on this night going 21-41 from FG range for 51.2% and weren't too shabby from behind the arc going 6-14 for 42.9%. Conversely, when GAC came to town for the rematch in Arden Hills, the Royals were held to a paltry 17-47 from FG range for 36.2% and the Gusties had control of things down low as they enjoyed a whopping 36-16 advantage in points in the paint. And Bethel had a bad day coughing up the rock with 17 turnovers to boot. To me, this tells me that it's going to be all about defense and who can play it better. Here's the thing - I definitely think that the Royals are a better team now than what they were back on 2-8 in the home loss to GAC. I think they were able to see where they came up short and what they needed to get better at and they've done those things in a relatively short timespan. At least that's what the eye test tells me. At the same time, the fact that the Gusties have been in the last three MIAC Championship Games and won them all tells you a lot about the experience this seasoned group has. There's no doubt in my mind that they have the edge in that category. We don't know how well Bethel is going to respond against an experienced team in a big moment late in a game. Still, this seems like a very evenly-matched affair and you definitely should be at Robertson Center tomorrow as that place is going to be rocking.
So while we know that both the Gusties and the Royals are "locks" for the Big Dance, we should take a look at things elsewhere around us to get a better idea of what else we can expect:
WIAC - This could potentially be a five-bid league as I'm typing this and it's pretty much a given that the two WIAC Championship Game participants on Saturday - UW-Whitewater and UW-Oskosh (b'gosh) along with UW-Stout are all virtual "locks" for the NCAA Tournament given their respective strong NPI numbers. The real question then revolves around hopefuls UW-Stevens Point and UW-La Crosse. These two are going to be watching nervously tomorrow to see how things go but from people I've been conversing with, I'm not going to be surprised at all if all five do in fact get in. If so, then it obviously becomes a question of where you try and put all these teams. Assuming both GAC and Bethel get to host 1st/2nd round pods at their facilities, you can bet that both will have one if not two WIAC teams at their place.
ARC - This appears to be a one-bid league if things go to form but Wartburg would almost certainly snatch up somebody's at-large bid should they falter in the ARC Championship Game on Saturday against Coe. Coe's only path is to win in Waverly against Wartburg and get in with the AQ so you can bet there's going to be a lot of nervous teams rooting hard for the Knights in this one.
UMAC - Saturday's UMAC Championship Game between Northwestern and UW-Superior will be a winner-take-all affair with the winner getting the AQ bid to the Dance and the loser going home.
MWC - See above as this will also be a one-bid league and will come down to the MWC Championship Game between Grinnell and host Ripon.
CCIW - Illinois Wesleyan (#3 in the country) is the only team that count on an at-large bid should they need it and they'll face Carroll in the CCIW Championship Game on Saturday night.
NACC - This is going to be a one-bid league as well and top-seeded St. Norbert would be on the wrong side of the bubble should they falter against Wisconsin Lutheran in the NACC Championship Game on Saturday.
So this is what I'm seeing as of right now. We'll probably have a better feel for things come Saturday night and Sunday when a lot of this stuff plays out.
This is a fun time of the year, isn't it?
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