MIAC Playoff Preview 2-18-19

Well, here we go again.  That time of the year where the mantra becomes survive and advance.  And what better way to start this little party than with the MIAC Playoffs.  Your usual cast of characters are in there, of course, but there's a newcomer that's crashed this little party and wants to take home a MIAC Playoff title all to itself.  And there's still that element of unpredictability that makes this year's version of it that much more interesting as well.  So let's try and break this all down from the bottom to the top. 


6.  SMU - You can certainly make the argument that the Cardinals may not even deserve to be in this position in the first place given the fact that they ended the regular in a Titanic-like tailspin; losing five of their last six games; including to cellar-dwellers St. Olaf at home and at Macalester blowing a seventeen-point halftime lead in the process.  This team is simply not coming in with either (a) momentum or (b) confidence and those are usually fatal blows this time of the year.  The confounding thing about all this is that this team is loaded with talent starting with senior forward Brandi Blattner who leads the team in scoring with her 15.5 ppg.  Freshman guard Brooklyn Paulson adds scoring punch with her 11.1 ppg and sophomore guard Isabel Bettag has given new Head Coach David Foley some solid minutes off the bench and fellow sophomore guard Claire Patterson is definitely someone you want to keep your eye on.  Now granted, I've only seen this team in action once this season so I probably don't know them as well as I should.  But, on the other hand, the results as of late speak for themselves and it's difficult for me to envision a scenario where they do a 180 and go on a tear. 

Sure sign of trouble - It all starts with Blattner for this team and should she gets saddled with foul trouble early, they'll need one of their guards to bail them out and that's highly unlikely. 


5.  GAC - I think you had to figure that the Gusties would slip this season without the dynamic duo of Mikayla Miller and Miranda Rice and they did; finishing 14-11 overall and 11-7 in MIAC play.  Still, they were good enough to get the ship sailing straight again - for the most part anyway - after a disastrous stretch right around the first of the year.  With this team and what they have - they pretty much won the games they were supposed to and lost the ones where you expected them to.  No huge surprise there.  They're led by senior forward Kendall Thompson's 14.3 ppg and fellow senior Justine Lee is right behind with her 13.3 ppg.  Sophomore post Paige Richert has begun to elevate her game as well as she averages 10.0 ppg and sophomore Ava Gonsorowski has begun to settle into the all-important point guard spot.  Realistically, I think this team is still probably a year or two away from getting back up to the level where they were at the last couple of seasons but you still can't completely dismiss the notion of them doing some damage in this thing.  Winning it all?  No.  But doing some damage?  Yeah. 

Sure sign of trouble - The Gusties were guilty of 27 turnovers this last Wednesday night at Bethel and have taken a pounding on the boards at times as well this season.  Together, both of them are double-whammys for this team.


4.  CSB - Both CSB and GAC had identical 11-7 conference records but the Blazers swept the Gusties in the regular season to give them the edge for that fourth spot and the home game that comes with it which means a rematch with said GAC team at St. Joe Tuesday night.  The thing of it is, I look at this CSB team and shake my head in absolute wonderment at times.  Yes, they did win five of their last six games of the regular season (including an upset win over Bethel) so you can say that they got "hot" at the right time.  At the same time, I look at how the Blazers got absolutely destroyed at UST this last Wednesday night and, in my mind anyway, that just raises a whole bunch of red flags about this team.  You can just never be completely sure about what you're going to get.  They're led by sophomore guard Megan Thompson's 13.6 ppg and fellow sophomore forward Maddie Schmitz isn't far behind with 12.2 ppg.  Junior post Alex Johnson has been solid down low with her 10.1 ppg and 8.9 rebounds a game.  Junior point guard Sidney Schiffler can be dynamite at times and senior guard/forward Breanna Gates is no slouch with her defensive play.  So why don't I trust this team?  I don't know.....They've had their share of lucky breaks this season that helped put them in the position they're in right now but they can't count on that to carry them far in this show. 

Sure sign of trouble - The Blazers have never struck me as a physical team and they can ill-afford to get pounded on the boards which isn't that much of a stretch against a Bethel or a UST. 


3.  Bethel - For the most part, I think you can say that the Royals have made amends for last season's disappointments but, at the same time, they've had just enough slip ups to have all their lifelines for the NCAA Tournament taken away from them in all likelihood.  They pretty much know that it's going to be an all-or-nothing proposition for them at this point.  Yet, if there's one team in this six-team field that's truly equipped to take down mighty UST, it's this group.  Without question, there's simply no one in the MIAC that can play defense like Bethel does and they can absolutely suffocate you in the half- and mid-court and make you pay in spades on the other end.  And, unlike last year, they've got some younger players who can be lights out from behind the arc.  They're led in scoring by two players - both averaging 16.5 ppg - junior forward enforcer Taite Anderson and senior post Hannah Johnson.  Sophomore forward Makenna Pearson isn't far behind with her 12.5 ppg.  Junior point guard Haylee Barker may not necessarily be that prolific of a scorer but she's easily the best on-ball defender in the conference and sophomore guard backcourt mate Bella Williams appears to have recovered from that nasty bout of the flu she had a few weeks ago.  Freshman guard Tessah Anderson has proven to be quite a spark off the bench and sophomore forward Elizabeth Schwarz provides a lot of help on the front line coming off the bench.  There just aren't a lot of weaknesses on this team.  The big test will likely come Thursday night at Augsburg and at some point, the Royals have to prove that they can get over the hump. 

Sure sign of trouble - Should the Royals go suddenly ice-cold from behind the arc, it puts more pressure on the front line duo of Taite Anderson and Johnson to get the job done.  And Taite Anderson has GOT to stay out of foul trouble.


2.  Augsburg - You've got to give Head Coach Ted Riverso and his staff a lot of credit for taking the Auggies from a no playoff season a year ago to this year's 21-4 overall record and 16-2 in the conference and almost a sure spot in the NCAA Tournament.  The core "Fab Five" group that came in a couple of years ago - Tamira McLemore, Kaezha Wubben, Ari Jones, Camryn Speese and Aiza Wilson - are juniors now and have all shown their potential in helping to lead this Augsburg program to the upper echelon of the MIAC which wasn't an easy thing to do.  They're led by McLemore's 15.6 ppg and Wubben isn't far behind with her 10.0 ppg.  The hallmark of this team is their incredible athleticism and speed and the way they get into transition and what makes them so tough is that there's simply no one else in the conference that can play the style they do which makes them truly unique.  At the same time, when they get forced to play a half-court game (especially against a team like UST), they're much, much more vulnerable.  This isn't what you would call a "big" team but what they have fits very well into their system.  Now the big question is how do they handle this moment?  They've never been in this position before as one of the top-two seeds and it'll be interesting to see what their response is in a pressure situation. 

Sure sign of trouble - Again, if the Auggies get forced to play a half-court game and can't get the steals to spark their transition game like they did in their home game against UST back in early January, they're in a heap of trouble. 


1.  UST - The world is round - and UST is once again in the top-dog spot.  So what else is new?  Well, not a lot.  The Tommies again ran roughshod over the MIAC this season going 18-0 in conference play and 24-1; the only slip-up being at Wartburg just before the first of the year.  And when you look at this current crop of players, it's easy to see why they're so good.  Senior All-American post Hannah Spaulding leads the way with her 16.9 ppg and sophomore guard/forward Kaia Porter isn't far behind with her 13.0 ppg.  Senior sharp-shooting guard Lucia Renikoff is an absolute terror from downtown and she averages 11.7 ppg as well.  As of late, sophomore guard Kelsie Cox has stepped up to the plate in the starting position but junior guard Sarah Krynski did play this last Saturday in the win at SMU so it will be interesting to see what Head Coach Ruth Sinn does with her starting line-up on Thursday night   This is a team that can hurt you in so many different ways and they've been in this position so many times it's almost like second nature to them.  What's even better for Sinn and the team is that there are younger players gradually stepping up to the plate to help take the load off of the main chain gang such as sophomore guard Madi Radtke, sophomore guard Macy Hatlestad, freshman post Brynne Rolland and fellow freshman guard Mia Krogseng.  Does this mean that the Tommies are completely infallible?  No, but until someone comes in and finally knocks them off, they're going to control the top spot. 

Sure sign of trouble - One thing that likely makes Sinn keep that bottle of Tylenol PM handy at night is the fear of an opponent getting hot against them from three-point land and both Bethel and Augsburg have those kinds of weapons.  Turnovers have been a problem at times for this team and both Bethel and Augsburg feast on turnovers. 


So there you have it.  The action gets underway tomorrow night with Quarterfinal play.  Feel free to fire away with thoughts.  Let the party begin!