Well, here we go. I've given this a lot of thought over the last several weeks and also wanted to see what some other thoughts were before I went and just put something out there. So here's my thoughts on how things will shake out this year.
Hands Down Favorite
1. UST - How can you NOT go with this squad? Other than losing the MIAC's 3-point shooting Queen in Ali Johnson and trusty guard Carolyn Dienhart along with do it all post Sarah Smith the Tommies have an abundance of talent coming back; notably all-world Taylor Young and the MIAC's premier post player in Maggie Weiers. And not only that, they have some great up and coming players in Kelly Brandenburg and former Eastview standout Jen Dockter. Perhaps the only thing different about this year's version is that they may not be infalliable as they were last year; asking them to go undefeated in the MIAC two years in a row may be a bridge too far. And let's also not forget that the Tommies get their mettle tested early - like this upcoming weekend - when they travel to Decatur, Illinois to take part in the Coaches vs Cancer Classic and take on preseason #1 Calvin on Friday night and then turn around and take on perennial powerhouse host Millikin. A week later, the Tommies then host WIAC favorite UW-Stevens Point. It's quite possible that a great team like UST could have a couple of dents in its record by the time they delve into MIAC play.
The Title Challengers
2. St. Olaf - Last year was something of a disappointment for the Oles as they showed potential from time to time but could turn around the next night and be wildly inconsistent and lose to the Detroit Lions of the hoops world. But the difference with this year's squad is that Head Coach Dave Stromme finally has depth at pretty much every position - a luxury he didn't enjoy last year. It's young depth but it's depth nonetheless. They've got a fantastic front line consisting of junior Elise Raney, senior Erin Haglund and sophomore Nikki Frogner who hails from Providence Academy. Sophomore Maddie Ehrich is now finally healthy again and senior Ashley Menzel and junior Brit Webber should be fully healthy soon. Stromme also has the best point guard in the conference, IMHO, in Mackenzie Wolter. Unfortunately, Wolter may be out for an undetermined amount of time with an injury and this may be where all that young depth has to step up in a hurry. Presumably freshman Lauren Gutierrez will fall into that spot. In any event, if there was ever a year where St. Olaf had a legitimate shot of winning the title, this year would have to be it.
3. Concordia - The Cobbers were probably one of the more under appreciated teams last year as they quietly went on a run late in the year before bowing to GAC in the MIAC playoff semifinals. Given how incredibly steady and consisten they are and with the returners they have coming back; not to mention one of the best coaches in the conference in Jessica Rahman, this squad will be that much better this year and have a shot to unseat UST as well. Seniors Tricia Sorensen and Emily Thesing have a knack for being in the right place at the right time (they learned well from their predecessors) and 6'4" post Alexandra Lippert is now a seasoned junior.
Solid Playoff Contenders
4. SMU - I have to admit that I really didn't know this team that well and only got to see them play once - when they upset St. Olaf in Northfield in the first round of the MIAC playoffs before bowing to UST. They have one of the top post players in the conference in junior Courtney Euerle and a very versatile player in senior Jamie Stefely along with solid guard play led by fellow senior Jessica Thone. They surprised a lot of people last year (including yours truly) in getting to the MIAC playoffs and now that they've done that they certainly have bigger and loftier goals for this season. I don't think that they're quite on the same level as either St. Olaf or Concordia; much less UST but they should be at least marginally better than what they were a year ago.
5. GAC - It's a new era in St. Peter as Laurie Kelly assumes the head coaching position that was held by Mickey Haller for 10+ seasons. This is a team that also lost the best point guard in the conference last year in Colleen Ruane along with Molly Geske and defensive specialist Ava Perry so there are some HUGE holes to fill here. The point guard spot will likely be inherited by senior Steph Comer who I felt slowly started coming into her own last season. There are plenty of other bright spots for the Gusties as well - senior post Abby Rothenbuehler and fellow senior Kelsey Florian along with junior three-point bomber Julia Dysthe and freshman sensation Lindsey Johnson. The big question for the Gusties is transitioning into a new system and how well they adapt. This should be a squad that is definitely good enough to at least get to the MIAC playoffs. Beyond that, I just don't know.
6. CSB - The Blazers are arguably one of the great unknowns to me and arguably to perhaps others as well. I simply don't know very much about this team other than they return seniors Whitney Canton, Morgan Dale and Jamie Wollin. This is a program that slipped badly a year ago and never could find any degree of consistency to get into that upper echelon where they normally find themselves. But, credit longtime Head Coach Mike Durbin for going out and hitting the recruiting trail HARD. Just looking at their roster has to make one salivate at what the future holds: 6'6" Sydney Hughes out of Olympia, Washington and 6'1" Sarah Berbos out of Fullerton, California; two lanky freshmen that highlight an impressive list of up and comers for the Blazers. This year may again be more of a learning year for this young team but they should be good enough to be in the playoff hunt and after that - LOOK OUT!!
Challenging For That Coveted Sixth Spot
7. Bethel - It's not easy to have to replace the MIAC's Player of The Year in Taylor Sheley but that's exactly what Head Coach Jon Herbrechtsmeyer has to do. Truth is, you can't really "replace" someone like Sheley who, in many ways, helped the Royals get back to back playoff berths single-handedly with her scoring ability. You just have to make the moving parts you do have work. And the Royals do have some very good moving parts beginning with senior Kelly Swenson who can be one of the dominant defensive players in the conference. She does have the ability to score as well and this year she needs to assert herself from an offensive standpoint. Also back is senior guard/forward Alicia Montbriand who has the ability to light things up from downtown along with capable junior Nicole Berscheid. Bethel's margin for error is much smaller than what it was last year and they have to avoid that Chicago Cub-like January swoon that could kill their chances.
8. Hamline - Granted, I've had some of my fantasy football teams go totally club med on me in years past but what happened at Hamline last year was utterly ridiculous as Head Coach Kerri Stockwell had to use bubble gum and baling wire just to keep her team intact through all the injuries they suffered last year. Despite losing post Steph Rice to graduation they still have a solid nucleus of returnees highlighted by senior three-point specialist Steph Pilgrim and senior forward Cassidy Vogt coming off an ACL injury back in January. Sophomore standout Jordan Sammons without question is one of the top athletes in the conference and can be a fantastic playmaker at any given moment. This is an incredibly athletic, fast squad although not one of the bigger squads in the conference. Needless to say, they have to keep their key cogs healthy at all times as depth could be an issue here as the season rolls along.
9. Macalester - I've learned over the years to never, NEVER underestimate an Ellen Thompson-coached squad. Even when she loses a great senior class from last season that included the three-point terrorist twin sister act of Jessica and Shannone Rene. Still, the Scots got a huge get from transfer post player Veronika Jakubovie that definitely filled a hole at that position. The roster at first glance may not look like much but one player to keep your eye on this year is junior Carmen Whitehead who has impressed yours truly in early season scrimmages. Also, senior point guard Kyanna Jones is one of the most dangerous backcourt players you'll find in the MIAC. They'll definitely have the ability to spoil some team's big dreams.
The Rest Of The Bunch
10. Augsburg - The Auggies were a big surprise last year as well and some key losses late in they year kept this squad out of the MIAC playoffs. Despite losing seniors Serenae Levine, Brittany Dyshaw and Lexi Thompson, Head Coach Bill McKee does have a solid enough group coming back highlighted by senior forward Brittany Zins. Last year at this time I had no idea what to think of this group and I find myself in the same quandry this time around as well.
11. Carleton - In some ways, I feel like I should have this squad higher than in the eleventh spot but, just like CSB, they are one of the great unknowns to me as I did not get to see this team play at all last year. When I got to visit with Head Coach Cassie Kosiba recently she seemed cautiously optimistic about her team's outlook for this season. And, why not? Despite struggling record-wise last year, this squad does have some players that make you stand up and take notice - particularly senior Akemi Arzouman and sophomore Skylar Tsutsui. I don't know if this squad is really ready to take the next step; i.e., contending for a MIAC playoff spot, but they should definitely be better this time around.
12. St. Kate's - The Wildcats also usher in a new era as well as new Head Coach Sean Pinkerton takes the reigns from Gary Rufsvold who stepped aside this last summer. This is still a very young team with not one senior on the roster. While not much may be expected of this year's edition of the Wildcats, they historically have not been the kind of team to simply go quietly in the night as they have been very scrappy at times and have given the best of teams fits. The 'Cats will be led by sophomore Sarina Baker and junior Kristen Lee who can light it up from downtown. A healthy Madison Pertler also returns as well and sophomore Sarah Mong looks to hold down the post spot this year.
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