MIAC Playoff Preview

Well, here we go.  One of my most favorite times of the year as we gear up for the MIAC playoffs.  When you sit down and take a look at everything, some things seem clear while others seem not so clear.  I'll do my best to try and break it all down and handicap this year's MIAC Playoffs from bottom to top.


6.  GAC - By mid-January, things looked quite bleak for the Gusties and it seemed to be coming more and more apparent that they would be on the outside looking in for the first time since the playoff format was adopted by the MIAC back in 2001.  Somehow, however, beginning in late January they managed to win seven out of eight games through early February that saved their season and had them holding the inside track for the sixth spot which they clinched yesterday with the win at St. Kate's.  While that accomplishment in itself is something to be proud of, a closer look at their schedule reveals how truly vulnerable this team is against the rest of the MIAC Playoff participants as they were only to get a home victory against St. Olaf while SMU, Concordia, UST and Bethel all swept GAC this season.  It's incredibly tough to envision a scenario that has them being anything but an early playoff casualty but this team is building for the future as they are loaded with freshmen and sophomores. 

Sure sign of trouble - If Karina Schroeder can't control the paint and the Gusties get down by double-digits early, it is OVER.


5.  St. Olaf - The Oles made up somewhat for last year's disappointing season when they missed out on making the playoff field and had enough healthy bodies this time around to snare the fifth spot.  Beyond that, it's tough to get excited about St. Olaf's prospects in this year's version of the playoffs as the results during the regular season are eerily similar to those of GAC's.  They did record a five-game win streak from January 15 through January 25 but it was a roller-coaster ride after that and, to make matters worse, they closed out the regular season with a bad, bad loss at Macalester and a somewhat predictable loss at Bethel yesterday.  In fact, their only win against the top teams was at home against Bethel during that five-game streak.  I would like this team's chances better IF they could still have a healthy Erin Haglund AND a healthy Mackenzie Wolter along with a healthy Nikki Frogner who suffered that knee injury early in the season.  Haglund and Mackenzie Wolter graduated last year, of course, and Frogner won't be ready until early next season.  For the Oles to do the unthinkable, it would take their Front Range bomber Kim Cerjan and Mackenzie Wolter's younger sister Afton to be knocking down "3's" like there's no tomorrow and point guards Lauren Gutierrez and Woo Bandel to be controlling the tempo and posts Elise Raney and Emily Wahlberg to totally dominate in the paint and........it's just a quantum leap that I cannot make.

Sure sign of trouble - For whatever reason, this St. Olaf squad has a rather nasty habit of folding in the second half and they don't seem to be able to adjust well when opponents get in transition on them.


4.  Bethel - What a turnaround for this Bethel program from last year's squad that was hampered by youth and inexperience to a team this year that has a 19-6 overall record and is dominated by freshmen and sophomores.  It is a team that has come a long way in a relatively short period of time and is on the cusp of moving into elite status in the conference.  They have one of the best post players in the conference in Rachel Parupsky and two experienced seniors in the backcourt in Katelyn Vavra and Micaella Petrich along with youngsters Hannah Niewald and Lexi Friesen who can both hit the "3" and can get into transition as well.  And let's not forget about freshmen phenom Kalli Zimmerman who can score and play defense.  For the first time, they get to host a playoff game and should they win Tuesday night against St. Olaf, this would be the one team that you would not want to have to play at home, on the road or on the moon.  They are arguably the darkhorse in the playoffs this season and, while next year looks to be like the year where they can seriously challenge for the MIAC title, I can't put it completely past them to come out of nowhere and somehow win this thing.  While it's not likely that the MIAC could ever get four teams in the Big Dance, should they win Tuesday night and then upset SMU on Thursday night, they would at the very least have a strong argument for getting an invite.

Sure sign of trouble - If those "3's aren't falling for Vavra and Parupsky gets bottled up in the paint, they're going to have to rely on the freshman, Zimmerman, to somehow bail them out.


3.  UST - It still seems amazing to me that I'm having to list the Tommies as the number three seed here.  I mean, this was the team that was supposed to breeze through the MIAC unblemished like they did two years ago and then make that magical run to the Final Four - and this time, win it.  But some funny and some not-so-funny things happened along the way that totally changed the complexion of this thing.  First, they found out the hard way that the MIAC is much, much better than what most people thought (read SMU and Concordia) and then had to deal with losing both Jen Dockter and Anna Smith to injury.  Smith won't be available until next season but Dockter is amazingly back and her 18 point performance yesterday in the win at CSB shows how hungry she is - and how good the Tommies can be with her back in the fold.  It's hard to go against a team that not only has Dockter back in action but also boasts all-world Taylor Young, Maggie Weiers and Kelly Brandenburg who may very well be the unsung heroine of the conference as the senior from Brookfield, Wisconsin never seems to get the recognition she deserves.  On the down side, being the number three seed means that, if they're going to do this, they're going to have to do it the hard way (take care of business Tuesday night and then win at Concordia on Thursday night and then, most likely at SMU on Saturday).  On the flipside, though, if there's one group that's been there before and knows what it's all about and knows what it takes to do it, it's this team.  And, make no mistake about it.  This team DESERVES an invite to the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens as they would have the best chance of any MIAC team to make a deep run.

Sure sign of trouble - It's tough to point to one thing that could lead to their downfall other than some bad luck but they've had some defensive lapses from time to time this year and they can ill-afford that up in Moorhead or down in Winona.


2.  Concordia - Why should I be surprised at all that they're in this position - again?  It just seems like every year they find themselves right in the thick of things.  I honestly thought this team would be a solid playoff contender but to predict them to have a 21-4 record AFTER both MIAC POY Emily Thesing and Tricia Sorensen graduated was a stretch.  But they have done just that and they do it in their normal way whereby several contributors step up and make plays.  The Cobbers may very well have the best three-point shooter in the conference in Alley Fisher along with solid, solid role players Erika Jossart, Erin Januschka, Olivia Johnson, Kelsey Walloch, Hannah Jeske and Katie Rosenfeldt along with solid freshman point guard Greta Walsh who plays more like an experienced sophomore or junior.  Oh, and let's not forget about a certain 6'4" post by the name of Alex Lippert who now plays like the experienced senior that she is.  In short, I really, really like this team and I really, really like their chances and I personally feel that they're the team to beat and the team that will be hoisting the MIAC Championship trophy when it's all said and done.  Like UST, they have the experience and the know how and have been there before.  And, like UST, they'd bloody well better get an invite to the Big Dance as well or I'll raise holy hell.  The big question for them is this:  Is this the year they FINALLY get past the first round in the Big Dance and make a run?   

Sure sign of trouble -  Again, tough to point to one specific thing here but in a tight game, they HAVE to hit those "3's" in order to avoid having defenses collapse on Lippert.


1.  SMU - Wow, whoda thunk that this group down the River in Winona would be the holder of the number one seed; much less boasting a 23-2 record and being all but a sure thing for the Big Dance?  I thought this group would be solid and good enough to be a certain playoff contender but to do what they did after losing both Jamie Stefely AND Jessica Thone to graduation was incredibly tough to envision.  Yet, that's exactly what they did and one of the big reasons they were able to do just that may very well lie with savvy sophomore point guard Bridget Pethke who has emerged as one of the top point guards in the conference.  The Cardinals also get healthy contributions on both sides of the ball from Darcey Rice and Shelby Auseth and understudies Emma Schaefer, Octavia Brown and Mariam Awoniyi can come in and provide solid minutes.  I also think a big part of SMU's success has been senior post Courtney Euerle who can play bigger than her 6'1" frame and is deceptively quick.  I've been tough on Head Coach Mandy Pearson and her staff in the past and I guess I have to eat a healthy dose of crow here and give credit where credit is due.  But now comes the $64,000.00 question for this team:  They've been to the MIAC playoff semifinals twice now; dropping decisions each time to UST on the road which is nothing to stick your head in the oven about.  But now, as the number one seed, are they really ready for this?  More importantly, can they handle the pressure of a championship game when things get tight down the stretch?  That's what we don't know now and won't know until this is all said and done. 

Sure sign of trouble - See my $64,000.00 question.


It should be a fun week.  As Ronnie Howard once said, "Let the Gumball Rally begin!!"