Oh yeah, that time of year again! In a fall (that has quickly turned to winter) that has had me obsessing over UCLA football (and the big showdown with crosstown rival USC next week) and getting my Rams back to Los Angeles, I have had some time to ponder the upcoming hoops season and how I think things are going to shake out in the MIAC this year. So, time to roll the dice.....
The Title Contenders:
1. UST
2. Bethel
No doubt as to who should be the favorite to be the top dog in the conference (again) this year. The Tommies have a load of talent in senior post Maggie Weiers and fellow senior point guard Jen Dockter. Throw in a supporting cast of fellow seniors Anna Smith and Elaine Warner plus junior Katie Stone and a bench that's deeper than some nuclear submarines and you've got a squad that can not only run roughshod over the rest of the conference but also has the ability to make a deep run in the national tournament as well. You can bet that UST still has a sour taste in their collective mouths after last year's NCAA second round tournament loss at home to eventual Final Four participant UW-Whitewater. Some may scoff at my pick of Bethel as the number two team in the conference but I think the Royals are poised to build on last year's 20-win season and at least have an outside shot at winning the conference. They have one of the best post players in the conference in junior Rachel Parupsky and an incredibly talented sophomore forward in Kalli Zimmerman. Depth might be an issue for this squad over the long-haul and they've got to avoid the injury bugaboo but I'm going to give Bethel the benefit of the doubt here and slide them into my number two spot. The reason for that is that I think the new revised scheduling works very much in their favor. They do get SMU twice but only get Concordia once (up in Moorhead) and UST only once as well - towards the end of the regular season at Robertson Center.
Solid Playoff Qualifiers:
3. Concordia
4. SMU
5. GAC
As long as Jessica Rahman (who I think is the best coach in the conference) is at Concordia, you can almost figure that the Cobbers are going to be in the thick of things and, at the very least, will have something to say about who does win this conference. Coming off another great season where they went 21-6 and got a bid to the Big Dance, Concordia will have a new face down low to fill the void left by graduated Alexandra Lippert. Two other big names have also collected their caps and gowns as well - back-up post Kelsey Walloch and guard Erika Jossart. But the Cobbers still have a seasoned senior in guard Alley Fisher and lanky forward Erin Januschka who finally broke out of her shell in that tough loss to UW-Whitewater in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Three other players to keep your eye on - senior Hannah Jeske, sophomore Greta Walsh and strong junior forward Olivia Johnson - will undoubtedly help keep Concordia in the mix. SMU; coming off a fantastic 24-4 season that saw them shock everybody by claiming regular season conference honors before the disappointing loss to UST at home in the MIAC Championship Game and the first round NCAA Tournament loss to UW-Oshkosh, lost MIAC POY Courtney Euerle to graduation which, no matter how you slice it or dice it, is a huge loss down low. The Cardinals are still very solid in the backcourt, however, with junior point guard Bridget Pethke and flashy senior guard Octavia Brown leading the way along with junior forward Shelby Auseth doing the hard work down low. One other player on this squad to keep your eye on - senior guard/forward Sara Schoenthaler; very underrated, IMHO. Certainly this team can be very good again. I made the mistake of selling them short last year. I just think losing Euerle will loom larger than some people believe. I think GAC is primed to make a bit of a move this coming season after snaring the coveted sixth spot by the hair of their chinny-chin-chin the last couple of years. Sadly, they will be without the services of one of the better post players in the conference in Karina Schroeder but they still have a couple of seasoned veterans in lanky junior forward Lindsey Johnson and senior transfer Maddie Ehrich from St. Olaf. Ehrich, while not necessarily a prolific scorer, can make things happen on defense and her athleticism and speed will be a big plus for this team that has struggled on that front. They have a bevy of young new talent coming in and it will be interesting to see how the young players develop and if they can make an impact early on.
Fighting For That Sixth Spot:
6. CSB
7. Hamline
8. Augsburg
To say that last year was something of a disappointment for perennial powerhouse CSB would be a huge understatement for a program that has had the lofty expectations this one has had over the years that Mike Durbin has been there. Things seemed to spiral out of control late in the season and they never could recover. But I think CSB has the best chance out of these three teams to get that sixth spot and at least make some amends for last year's disaster. The Lueck Sister Act (senior Emily and junior Mattie) are back along with sophomore point guard Annie Dittberner plus an exciting group of young new faces. Hamline endured a rough season last year and Head Coach Kerri Stockwell attributed that to youth and inexperience. But the Pipers are arguably one of the most dangerous teams lurking out there and the overall speed and athleticism they have is stunning. They have perhaps the best athlete in the conference in senior guard Jordan Sammons back for one last hurrah along with juniors Emily Behrman and Mackenzie Lee and speedy sophomore Chloe Graves. The post area will still be a little on the green side with freshman Alex Peterson presumably in the starting role. The big question for this squad is: Can they find a way to be consistent? They have the ability to beat anybody in this conference and, at the same time, they also possess the ability to lose to anyone in the conference. To crack the playoffs, they will have to take care of business at home and find a way to steal a game or two on the road that they're probably not supposed to win. Ditto for Augsburg which has been right on the cusp of the playoffs for the last few seasons only to fall short at the most critical times. They have one of the best defensive players in the conference in senior guard Abbey Luger who can not only wreak havoc out on the perimeter but can also hit the "3" as well. A solid supporting cast of junior guard Jenna Orth and fellow junior guard Marie Fitzgerald will give the Auggies the ability to stay in the hunt. But again, the nagging question - can they be consistent and find a way to get over the top this time around?
On The Outside Looking In:
9. Carleton
10. St. Olaf
The two Northfield teams - Carleton and crosstown rival St. Olaf - are both curious cases. I've often thought that the Knights had a chance to make a breakthrough and, although they've shown flashes of brilliance, injuries and other assorted maladies have brought them down. They have a great returning senior guard in Skylar Tsutsui and juniors Michelle Arima and Gabbi Stienstra help make the Carleton backcourt solid. They're still awfully green in the frontcourt, however, and I think this will again hold the Knights back from making any inroads. Meanwhile, over on the west side of town, St. Olaf was a mess after this last season that saw them get the sixth spot and get unceremoniously dumped by Bethel in the first round. Bad enough that the Oles lost both Elise Raney and Britt Weber to graduation. But the Oles also lost lanky post Emily Wahlberg, three-point bomber Kim Cerjan and seasoned vet Maddie Ehrich in an exodus that I have personally not seen in the MIAC before. Junior Lauren Gutierrez is back as is senior post Nikki Frogner but the Oles will need to have both of these players healthy to stand any kind of chance. Junior guard Afton Wolter is always a dangerous threat behind the arc and sophomore Betsey Daly is an up-and-coming player to keep your eye on. Maybe the Oles will fare better than I think but they'll have to show me to convince me.
Struggling To Get Out Of The Basement:
11. St. Kate's
12. Macalester
The Wildcats endured a rough, rough season last year as injuries and inexperience all took their toll on Head Coach Sean Pinkerton's squad. But the legion of walking wounded are now back and this team may finally be ready to make a move and surprise. Leading the way for St. Kate's will be sophomore point guard Gabby Zehrer and fellow sophomore guard/forward LaShay Holt. A supporting cast featuring seniors Sarah Manning and Jenna Mistler plus sophomores Kennedy Jennings and Mari Lee plus an exciting group of freshmen that includes Meg and Audra Clark out of Kenyon-Wanamingo help make this a team to definitely keep your eye on. They will have to avoid any bad luck scenarios but they could - if things go "right" for them - make a splash. New Macalester Head Coach and former Minnesota Golden Gopher standout Kelly Roysland takes over the reigns from Ellen Thompson. Roysland obviously has a huge task in rebuilding the Macalester program that just five seasons ago was one of the best teams in the conference. Still, if anyone can pick up the pieces and make the Scots winners again, it's Roysland.
So there you have it. And now, let the battles begin!
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