Seems hard to believe that another MIAC regular season has come to a close yet here we are on the eve of the MIAC Playoffs. Things are not quite as complicated as they were last year but there's still some very interesting twists and turns that took place this last weekend that made things shake out the way they did and could possibly have an impact on how things turn out. So, here we go with a look at the six participants:
6. Augsburg - This is the first playoff appearance for Head Coach Bill McKee and his Augsburg program and, after just missing out the last few years the Auggies finally got over the hump and made the cut. Augsburg did better on the road this season than they have in the past few years; getting five wins although none of those road wins came against MIAC Playoff participants. They did beat Concordia at home back in mid-January and also scored a big win at home against likely UMAC winner Northwestern back in December. They get the rematch up at Moorhead again against the Concordia team that beat them this last Saturday and if the Auggies are going to advance, they have to get big production from their 1-2 punch of Jessica Lillquist and Bridget Bednar. And Abbey Luger not only has to score, she has to wreak havoc defensively as well. The good news for the Auggies is that the pressure really isn't on them so, presumably anyway, they should be able to roll the dice and take some calculated risks in their game against Concordia tomorrow night. The bad news is that the sixth seed historically has not done well in the MIAC Playoffs and that this is the Auggies first experience with it.
Sure sign of trouble - If the Auggies get down by double digits early. The Lillquist/Bednar duo has to control the paint and if they don't their experience will be a short one.
5. GAC - It seems like it was just yesterday that I had hopped on the Gustie Express; full of hope and promise that this young, exciting team would set the MIAC on fire on their way to the MIAC Championship Game and an invite to the Dance. But that fire and hope got doused and reality slowly began to sink in after Bethel came down to St. Peter and dumped the Gusties by a 65-52 count. UST came to town a week later and delivered their annual thumping and the hangover continued when GAC went to Hamline a few days later. The Gusties appeared to recover somewhat despite the loss up at Concordia and looked to be a firm lock at the number three spot. But then came the devastating ACL injury to senior guard Maddie Ehrich; arguably their leader on the floor, in the win over Macalester and then the inexplicable loss at home to CSB on Saturday that, because of the tie-breaker scenario, dropped GAC from the number three spot all the way down to the fifth spot. Yikes. This is NOT how I had envisioned things turning out for the Gusties yet this is exactly what happened and now it seems like the proverbial balloon has suddenly burst. I think the future is bright for this young team but the fix that they now find themselves in just too much to overcome; certainly without Ehrich anyway. Not that it's totally impossible, but it's unlikely. Somebody needs to step up for this team - right now - and I'm not sure just who that would be although you would have to think that Lindsey Johnson; given some the great performances that she had earlier in the season (particularly at St. Kate's) might be the logical choice. Freshman point guard Mikayla Miller has a ton of potential but for her to bear that burden at this stage would be a lot to ask. I wish I could offer a better prognosis for this team but unfortunately I can't.
Sure sign of trouble - If the Gusties come out with the same lack of intensity and energy that they showed in some of their losses this year, break out the violin.
4. SMU - The Cardinals have endured some of their own misfortunes as well this year after a fabulous season last year that saw them win the MIAC regular season title and host the MIAC Championship Game - and also get an invite to the Big Dance as well. But you had to figure that things would be a little rougher this year without last year's POY Courtney Euerle anchoring the post. What SMU could not have counted on, of course, was point guard Bridget Pethke going down with an ACL injury of her own that really set the tone for the rest of the season. Early February was a rough stretch and they had to go to overtime to hold off Concordia at home. Still, they have solid production on the floor with the likes of Shelby Auseth and understudy Emma Schaefer at the point guard spot. Freshman post Molly O'Toole is going to be a great one, no doubt about it. The Cardinals have been tough to beat in Winona; dropping only one conference game this year to Bethel back in early December but it has been an entirely different proposition on the road. In the final analysis, I can certainly see SMU holding serve at home against GAC tomorrow night but they'll almost certainly find the door slammed shut on them when they go up to UST.
Sure sign of trouble - If things suddenly start to go awry for them in the second half as they did up at CSB. They'll need to play a full 40 minutes - and possibly more - if they are to get to the semis.
3. Concordia - Not that it's necessarily a surprise to see the Cobbers holding the third spot. Rather, it's how they got into this position given the up-and-down season that they had. In the end, things worked out well for Jessica Rahman's team and the good news for them is that they get to host a playoff game in cavernous Memorial Auditorium where the prospects of coming out with a "W" are definitely in their favor. The funny thing is, I think Concordia would be a much more dangerous team to face if they were operating out of, say, the fifth spot; especially in a scenario if they were able to get a road win and get some big momentum going into the semis. Still, I doubt the Cobbers are complaining too much about the situation. They have the best three-point shooter in the conference in senior Alley Fisher and a solid starting rotation with several bench players who can contribute with good minutes. Senior Erin Januschka has had to bear the heavy responsibility of holding the post spot that was anchored by the now-graduated pair of Alex Lippert and Kelsey Walloch. If there's one dark horse in the MIAC Playoffs, it's this group and you can never count out a Jessica Rahman-coached team. Still, I have to think that someone other than Fisher or Erin Januschka is going to have to step up and have a huge game or two if Concordia is to do the unthinkable. And who might that be - Hannah Jeske? Olivia Johnson? Maybe Greta Walsh? I don't know. But someone has to, IMHO.
Sure sign of trouble - If Fisher's three-point bombs aren't falling early and Erin Januschka gets bottled up down low.
2. Bethel - The Royals took yet another step forward in moving into elite status; garnering a 20-win regular season that arguably could have and probably should have been more had it not been for a slip-up at St. Kate's and a one-point loss to Ashford back in early December. That road loss at CSB shortly after the first of the year is likely still a sore spot for Head Coach Jon Herbrecthsmeyer. Still, the impressive 11-game win streak set the tone for the Royals and, despite the loss at home to UST, they recovered against Carleton in the regular season finale to get themselves into a very good spot. They have one of the best post players in the conference in Rachel Parupsky who can not only score but swat shots and passes like a chaperone at a debutante outing. A solid backcourt duo with Hannah Niewald and Sydney "Bam Bam" Schultz who can both drive to the hole and reign terror from behind the arc. Also, up and coming sophomore Shanni Moorse is definitely someone you want to keep your eye on as she has had some outstanding performances as of late. I think all they need to do is to win their semifinal game (likely against Concordia) and, with 21 wins, it's going to be very, very hard to keep them out of the Big Dance. A rematch with UST would almost undoubtedly be in the offing after that and this one would be at their place. Bethel has the ability to win this thing but, in order to do it, they're going to have to play a complete, clean game. It's as simple as that. But this is the chance they've been wanting to have and now they have it.
Sure sign of trouble - If they start giving up a bevy of three-pointers like they did in the loss to UST at home early on and if the turnover bugaboo rears its ugly head.
1. UST - Not too much negative you can find with a team that is 25-0 (18-0 MIAC) and currently ranked number two in the country. Let's just get this out of the way right now - The Tommies are one HELLUVA basketball team with very, VERY few weaknesses and if they're ever going to win the whole ball of wax, you would have to think that this would be the year to do it. You've got Maggie Weiers and Anna Smith; both heavily experienced veteran seniors, holding down the front line. A great point guard in Jen Dockter and a solid three-point threat in backcourt partner Katie Stone; not to mention a host of bench players who could easily be starters on a lot of teams in the conference. Yeah, they're THAT good. And, the only real scares they had were at home back after Thanksgiving against UW-Stevens Point and this last Wednesday night against Bethel and they found a way to win in both of those contests. For the most part, the Tommies have routinely plowed the road against their opponents and you would have to think that this pattern will hold until at least the MIAC Championship Game where they'll like have the rematch with Bethel. For UST, it's just a matter of staying focused and bringing the intensity and energy for each game. And, according to Head Coach Ruth Sinn, her squad LOVES this time of the year.
Sure sign of trouble - It may be a bit of a reach, but this team has a nasty little habit of fouling and getting a bit lackadaisical with the ball from time to time. The fouling aspect could be critical if they find themselves in a close one with Bethel in the MIAC Championship Game.
Well, there you have it. Fire away with thoughts.
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