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Tuesday, November 10, 2015

MIAC Predictions For 2015-16 Season

All right.  Time to dust off that old crystal ball I have laying around and make my picks on what should be another fun and wildly unpredictable season of MIAC women's hoops.  Here goes nothing:

The Title Contenders

1.  Bethel
2.  UST

This simply is the year that Bethel HAS to win it all.  They either have to win it this year or they'll never win it.  I say that when I look at this Bethel roster.  They have every starter back from last year's team that made it to the MIAC Championship Game and received an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament.  Where do I start?  They easily have the best post player in the conference in senior Rachel Parupsky and an equally-seasoned backcourt duo of seniors Hannah Niewald and Sydney "Bam Bam" Schultz.  But wait, there's more.  Junior forward Kalli Zimmerman is only getting better and better and junior guard Shanni Moorse came on strong down the stretch.  And now added to the mix is sophomore forward Molly O'Toole who transferred from SMU.  And Head Coach Jon Herbrechtsmeyer has also brought in a very talented freshmen class as well.  This is a squad that knows how to play defense.  It's all there for them.  I would be VERY disappointed if they did not manage to make noise beyond the MIAC Championship Game this time around.

That said, I cannot completely discount the chances of UST.  While this is going to be a very, very different squad without the likes of Maggie Weiers, Anna Smith, Jen Dockter, Elaine Warner, Alyssa (nothing vanilla) Favilla, Hannah Hughes, et al, it would be a mistake to count this team out.  Senior guard Katie Stone now assumes the role of the "go to" player on this squad and she certainly has the necessary leadership capabilities.  With a host of new faces on this year's team, it will be interesting to see how they come along.  Certainly they won't be invincible as they have been the last couple of seasons but Head Coach Ruth Sinn is a master at making the most of a not so great situation and this would be the one team I would not want to face if my season were at stake in February.


Solid Playoff Contenders

3.  GAC
4.  Concordia
5.  Augsburg

The Gusties are looking to make amends on the disappointing way their season ended last year and, by looking at this year's roster, they are certainly capable of doing that and then some.  Simply put, this year's team is loaded with a lot of young talent.  More importantly, I think that this young group will mesh nicely with the returning veterans.  I think that sophomore Mikayla Miller has the ability to become the best point guard in the conference and senior forward Lindsey Johnson is one of the most versatile players in the MIAC with her ability to score from the perimeter as well as get into the paint for the hard-earned points.  I think Head Coach Laurie Kelly has her squad primed to make that move back into the elite echelon where GAC belongs, IMHO.  Personally, I think the Gusties have an outside shot at winning the title this year IF they get some breaks along the way that they haven't had the last few seasons.

Concordia is a team that just always seems to be in the mix under Head Coach Jessica Rahman and I expect that trend to continue this season as well.  The Cobbers will have to find someone to replace Erin Januschka down low although, presumably anyway, her younger sister Jenna Januschka will be ready and willing to step in as a seasoned junior.  Another huge void will be at the point guard spot vacated by Alley Fisher who was one of the top point guards in the conference last season.  Senior Hannah Jeske is back as is fellow senior Olivia Johnson who can clean the glass so those two will certainly assume the leadership roles on the team but who steps up as the "go to" person?

Augsburg figures to have something to say about this whole thing as well as they have an interesting mix of new and returning players.  Ted Riverso, who had some great years at UST before serving on Pam Borton's staff at Minnesota, assumes the head coaching reigns sadly vacated by the passing of Bill McKee this last summer.  While the Auggies did lose Abbey Luger to graduation, they do return senior Jenna Orth; one of the best defenders in the conference along with senior post Jessica Lillquist and senior guard Ashley Anfinson.  But the new additions are eye-openers:  senior guard Maria Loughlin who transferred in from UM-Crookston and senior guard Allison McKee who transferred in from Bemidji State.  You could easily make the case for flip-flopping Augsburg and Concordia at the fourth and fifth spots and I know some who will.


Fighting For That Sixth Spot

6.  CSB
7.  Carleton
8.  St. Olaf
9.  SMU

I give the nod to the Blazers this time around for snaring that coveted sixth spot.  God only knows they have disappointed me before but I like the mix of the young and returning talent Head Coach Mike Durbin has this season.  He certainly has some height this season in sophomore post Niki Fokken and fellow sophomore post Kate Banovetz.  Junior guard Macy Kelly is now healthy and presumably should hit full stride once the season gets underway.  Fellow junior guard Annie Dittberner is a player to keep your eye on as well.  Still, a lot of question marks remain for this team.  Can they be consistent?  Can they avoid some of the scoring droughts they've suffered over the last few seasons?  Who steps up as the leader of this team.  When the refined product is revealed come January we should have answers to some of the questions.

Just by glancing at their roster, Carleton has to be the most intriguing team this year.  Head Coach Cassie Kosiba certainly has the "numbers" but will those numbers lead to immediate results?  That seems to be the big question surrounding the Knights this year anyway.  While Carleton did lose Skylar Tsutsui to graduation, they do add sophomore Anne Hamilton who transferred in from Valparaiso University.  Seniors Michele Arima and Gabbi Stienstra are back as well.

Crosstown rival St. Olaf features an interesting roster as well headlined by senior three-point specialist Afton Wolter and junior Betsey Daly.  The big question for the Oles is who replaces departed Nikki Frogner at the post?  Another nagging question for the Oles:  Can they ever find a way to be consistent?

SMU looked to be sitting in a very good position at the end of last season before Mandy Pearson was lured to the Twin Ports by UM-Duluth.  Replacing her is new Head Coach Brent Pollari who comes from Minnesota State-Mankato.  Pollari certainly doesn't have a bare cupboard as senior guard Bridget Pethke returns fully healthy off of the nasty ACL injury she suffered last year and backing her up is equally capable junior Emma Schaefer who shined brightly in the MIAC Quarterfinal Playoff win over GAC.  Newcomer freshman Brandi Blattner out of Dover-Eyota will be another young player to keep your eyes on.  The big question here is how well and how quickly do the Cardinals adapt to a new system.  This squad is not terribly big in size either and this could very well be another team that finds itself on the outside looking in once the regular season is done.


Bringing Up The Rear

10.  St. Kate's
11.  Hamline
12.  Macalester

St. Kate's is just one of those teams you can never take for granted.  True, they had that nine-game swoon after the first of the year last season but came on strong at the end.  They have an exciting mix of talent in players such as junior LaShay Holt, senior sharpshooting guard Shauna Horsch, willowy junior forward Kennedy Jennings, and the twin sister duo of Audra and Meg Clark in the backcourt.  Junior forward/post Mari Lee is developing into a very solid player as well.  They took GAC to overtime in arguably one of the best games in the MIAC last year and gave eventual Elite Eight participant UST fits during their regular-season clashes and knocked off NCAA Tournament participant Bethel at home.  For the 'Cats, it really all boils down to consistency and staying healthy.  Don't be surprised if they pull off a shocker or two this year.

Hamline has the unenviable task of replacing all-world Jordan Sammons and it's likely going to be like starting all over again learning to play without her on the court.  The Pipers do return junior guard Chloe Graves and fellow junior guard Chelsey Bonsante along with senior Emily Behrman.  But it will almost certainly be an uphill battle for Head Coach Kerri Stockwell and her squad this season.

Macalester and Head Coach Kelly Roysland will be looking to improve on last year's 3-22 season and, despite their record, this is never a team you want to take lightly.  They may not have the most dynamic roster in the conference but at the same time, this is a team that does not beat itself.  Senior guards Erin Murray and Katelyn Kack handle the backcourt duties and junior forward Park Masterson can be a factor down low.  Sometimes it's a matter of baby steps but the Scots have to take this thing one game at a time.

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