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Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, November 6, 2016

MIAC Predictions For 2016-17 Season


Ah yes.  It's that time of the year again when I get to dust off the old crystal ball and take a look at the upcoming season in the MIAC.  Considering how UCLA is doing this fall and, to a lesser extent, my LA Rams, I'm more than anxious for the season to begin.  So, let's take a look at how I think things will shake out this season.


The Title Contenders:

1.  UST
2.  GAC

You have to go with the Tommies again as the favorites as they come off a 26-4 record that included a run to the Sweet Sixteen in the NCAA Tournament.  They did graduate starting guard Katie Stone and reserve senior post Mykenzie Spaulding but everybody else from last year's squad is back and primed for another great season; including D3 Hoops 1st team preseason All-American senior post Kaitlin Langer who will be supported by a pretty impressive supporting cast including senior guards Gabby Zehrer and Paige Gernes and junior Maddie Wolkow.  The early schedule which includes dates with teams such as UW-Stevens Point, Luther and Hope is challenging but this is a squad that thrives on the big games and that'll only make them tougher to knock off after the first of the year.

I give GAC an outside shot at the title although they have yet to prove that they can finally derail the Tommie Express.  I think, more realistically, they have a very, very good chance to get in the 23-24 win-range, get to the MIAC Championship Game, and assure themselves of a bid to the Dance where they can roll the dice - something that they would have done last year if it were not for puzzling losses to both Coast Guard and CSB.  They have the best point guard, IMHO, in the conference in junior Mikayla Miller and a devastating 1-2 punch down low in seniors Miranda Rice and Hannah Howard.  The early season schedule is, for the most part anyway, very favorable although two daunting road trips to Wisconsin - one at UW-Stout on 12-13 and another to UW-River Falls on 12-29 are in the offing.  Assuming they can come away with a split in those two games, they should get back into MIAC play with a head of steam.  More importantly, they only play UST once during the regular season (on 2-1) and that'll be in St. Peter.


Solid Playoff Contenders:

3.  Bethel
4.  SMU
5.  Concordia

I flipped back and forth several times between Bethel and SMU for the number three spot before finally settling on the Royals.  To be sure, Bethel has taken some hits in graduation losses and injury. Gone are graduated seniors Rachel Parupsky, Hannah Niewald and Sydney "Bam Bam" Schultz and Molly O'Toole had to sadly end her basketball career due to injuries.  But the Royals do return seniors Kalli Zimmerman and Shanni Moorse along with junior sparkplug guard Abby Miller and ever-improving sophomore post Hannah Johnson.  A couple of tough tests await later this month - one at Carthage on 11-18 and a home date with WIAC powerhouse UW-River Falls on 11-22 - along with December contests against UW-Stout and UW-Oshkosh right before the end of the year.  They play both UST and GAC only once and they get the Gusties at Robertson Center as well.  A challenging schedule to be sure but, assuming they can get through the year relatively healthy, they have a chance to possibly make up for some of the disappointments they endured last season.

The Cardinals lost a talented backcourt trio to graduation in Bridget Pethke, Haley Trom and Micaela Meredith but they do return seniors Emma Schaefer, Brigette Audette and post player Sam Jones. Also returning is sophomore forward Brandi Blattner and a newcomer to the squad is sophomore Brittney Flom so SMU does have some size down low.  It'll be important for the Cardinals to get off to a good start in the early part of the season and the fact that they have eight out of their first thirteen games at home in Winona gives them a chance to do so although some of the opponents include UW-Stout, Concordia, Bethel, GAC and UW-Eau Claire.

Speaking of Concordia, they lost an incredibly talented trio of their own to graduation in Olivia "Dibs" Johnson, Hannah Jeske and Katie Rosenfeldt.  The fact that they haven't as of yet posted their 2016-17 rosters leaves me a bit in the dark but two important players that are returning include seniors Greta Walsh and Jenna Januschka who made great strides last season.  Head Coach Jessica Rahman always seems to find a way around the rough spots to at least have her squad in the mix and I expect that trend to continue this season as well.  One tough date at home against Jamestown and an equally tough roadie over to UW-Superior await this squad and they do take a Thanksgiving Holiday excursion out to Colorado Springs for two games.  Unfortunately for the Cobbers, they have to play both UST and GAC twice during the regular season.


Fighting For The Sixth Spot:

6.  St. Kate's
7.  CSB
8.  Augsburg

I give the edge to St. Kate's for that sixth spot but, once again, they have to avoid that seemingly annual January swoon that they always fall into.  This time, however, I think they finally have the goods to do it.  They have solid leadership in seniors Mari Lee, Kennedy Jennings, LaShay Holt and Alexis Garcia and a pretty good backcourt duo in twin sisters Audra and Meg Clark.  The early part of the season is challenging as they open at UW-Eau Claire on 11-15 and then head to the Big Apple for games against both UMass-Boston and Baruch before returning home to play UW-Stout.  Games against two teams that made the NCAA Tournament this last year - UW-River Falls and UW-Superior - are both on the road in December.  They do get both UST and Concordia only once this season but they do get GAC twice.

CSB has been nothing short of a puzzling entity over the last few seasons; losing games that they should win on paper and then stealing a game or two that they had no business of winning.  They did finish 15-11 last year and did make the MIAC Playoffs where they lost in the first round to GAC so, at least on those terms anyway, they met expectations.  Arguably however, they were the beneficiary of other teams misfortunes.  They have three very good seniors who should play a large part in their success this season in Alison Newton, Annie Dittberner and Macy Kelly.  Juniors Chelsey Guetter, Niki Fokken and Kate Banovetz also figure to play big roles as well and the Blazers do have size in both Fokken and Banovetz.  For the most part, the Blazers early portion of the schedule seems manageable enough with games against Martin Luther and UW-Stout and UM-Morris all in the friendly confines of Claire Lynch.  They do have an early conference road date at UST plus a roadie at UW-Eau Claire a few days after that before heading to the nation's capital for a tournament in D.C. at the end of the year.  Right now anyway, the outlook appears murky at best.

Augsburg lost a bevy of very good players to graduation including do-it-all point guard Maria Loughlin who often had to carry the team on her shoulders last season.  Ditto for Jenna Orth who could always be counted on to come off the bench and wreak havoc on defense.  The early portion of the schedule is challenging as the Auggies go up against the likes of UW-Stout, UW-Superior, Northwestern, and UW-River Falls so Augsburg's margin for error will be extremely small once they get into the meat of the MIAC season which includes playing UST twice.


Bringing Up The Rear:

9.  St. Olaf
10.  Carleton
11.  Macalester
12.  Hamline

The Oles bid adieu to five very good seniors from last season including point guard Lauren Gutierrez, three-point specialist Afton Wolter and guard Woo Bandel.  This year's version is an interesting mix that includes senior Betsey Daly, junior Shelby Stewart and a host of fresh, young faces.  Roadies against Bethany Lutheran, UW-Whitewater and UW-Eau Claire await as does a trip out to the Motherland to take on both Caltech and Occidental in Pasadena and Los Angeles, respectively.  With the young make-up of this squad I expect a roller coaster-like year on the west side of Northfield. Crosstown rival Carleton is the epitome of youth - no seniors at all but Head Coach Cassie Kosiba feels a bit better about her team this time around.  Injuries ravaged the Knights last year but if they can get steady production from junior forward Anne Hamilton, Carleton could surprise.  The early portion of the schedule is daunting, however, with games against the likes of UW-River Falls, UW-Oshkosh and UW-Stout.  Macalester saw improvement in Head Coach Kelly Roysland's second season and she hopes the trend continues this time around.  Leading the way for the Scots will be senior post Park Masterson and fellow senior guard Grace Dickman.  The early portion of the schedule seems manageable enough and, like St. Olaf, they venture out to the Motherland to play Caltech and Occidental as well.  They'll need a head of steam going into MIAC play as their first two opponents are (gulp) UST and GAC.  Up the road on Snelling Avenue, Hamline lost both Emily Behrman and Alex Peterson to graduation but they do get senior guards Chloe Graves and Chelsey Bonsante back along with Augsburg transfer sophomore Alaina Quaranta.  The early season portion of the schedule is downright brutal with Northwestern and UW-Stout back-to-back, December MIAC games against both Bethel and UST, a date at UW-River Falls on 12-12 and then a trip down to Waverly, Iowa to take on Final Four participant Wartburg along with a game against either University Athletic Association powerhouse Washington U or UW-La Crosse.

So there you have it.  I'm sure not everybody will agree with my picks so feel free to fire away with any thoughts or opinions.                    

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