MIAC Playoff Preview 2-20-17

Ah, it's that time once again to break out the crystal ball and handicap the upcoming MIAC Playoffs this week.  This has been a great regular season and the strength of the top teams shows why the MIAC is, without question, one of the best conferences out there.  This year's version of the MIAC Playoffs could be very interesting indeed as you have at least three teams that can make strong cases for not only winning it but are also capable of making big runs in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Then you have possibly two other teams that are more than capable of upsetting the apple cart and spoiling somebody's season.  With that in mind, let's take a look at each of the teams and their outlook for this week.


6.  Augsburg - Left for dead back in January when they were in a serious losing funk, the Auggies turned things around in the month of February; winning five of their last six regular season games to snare the sixth spot (and with a little help from conference rival CSB as well this last Saturday).  This is an incredibly young team that Head Coach Ted Riverso has but it's also incredibly quick and athletic and can cause a whole host of match-up problems for other teams simply because no one else in the conference plays like they do.  If there was ever such a thing as the MIAC's version of the "Fab 5", this would definitely have to be it with this freshman group.  Tamira McLemore can be a one-person wrecking crew with her fearless drives into the paint and fellow freshman Camryn Speese can leap out of the gym to snare a rebound.  And when freshman guard Aiza Wilson gets hot from behind the arc, look out!  That said, this group has had its obvious inconsistencies at times as well; notably from the free throw line.  Experience obviously plays a factor in big games and this group is still somewhat green around the gills on that front.  But if they play a fearless free-wheeling style and can get a few breaks along the way, this is definitely one scary group.

Sure sign of trouble - While the Auggies will get definitely get their share of transition opportunities, they'd bloody well better make the most of those opportunities because if they wind up leaving a lot of points on the table, it will cost them dearly.


5.  St. Kate's - Patience, perseverance and hard work have paid off for Wildcat Head Coach Sean Pinkerton and his staff as St. Kate's has steadily improved each year and enters the MIAC Playoffs with a 15-10 record overall and 9-9 in conference play - good enough to snare the fifth seed.  This is a team that has won some big road games this year - notably at UW-River Falls and at UW-Superior; the latter which will likely win the UMAC Playoffs and get into the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season.  They've taken a few lumps along the way - notably to both Bethel and GAC at home - but, for the most part anyway, have taken care of business where they should have.  Unlike Augsburg, this is an experienced group with seniors Mari Lee, Kennedy Jennings, LaShay Holt, and Alexis Garcia along with the junior twin sister backcourt duo of Audra Clark and Meg Clark. Moreover, they've had some younger faces show up and provide quality minutes as well in freshmen Danica Cambrice and Jackie Radford along with sophomore newcomer Kanani Asuncion.  When this team is on and playing well, they have the capability to beat anyone in the conference and that includes both GAC and UST.  And when they don't play well, they can be beaten by anyone in the conference.  It's hard to find a happy medium with this group and they have a nasty little habit of being wildly inconsistent at times.  One alarming stat to point out that could mean an early exit - the 'Cats are dead last in the MIAC when it comes to rebounding and that's one area that they've GOT to improve on if they are going to do the unthinkable.

Sure sign of trouble - If the flashy Holt gets into early foul trouble and can't be a force on either end of the floor, that's almost a certain death wish.


4.  CSB - Head Coach Mike Durbin has his Blazers back in the playoff mix in the fourth spot with a similar 15-10 overall record and 11-7 in the conference which is a step up from last season.  They've been in their share of close games this year; most notably with that overtime win over SMU down in Winona that knocked the Cardinals out of the playoffs.  Roster-wise, this squad shares a lot of similarities with St. Kate's who they'll face in the quarterfinals on Wednesday night.  Four seniors - Annie Dittberner, Macy Kelly, Alison Newton and reserve Grace Pouliot.  But Newton hasn't played since the loss at Augsburg earlier in the month and it would be a huge loss not to have her fully healthy and ready to go for Wednesday night.  Fortunately, the Blazers do have a lot of length and height in players such as juniors Kate Banovetz and Nikki Fokken and freshman Alex Johnson and they'll need to come up big for the Blazers this week if they're to have any chance.  I've only seen this team play twice this year and, unfortunately, the game I can't get out of my head is that 40+ point beatdown they suffered at the hands of UST at Schoenecker Arena.  It's entirely possible that they hold serve at home against St. Kate's on Wednesday night but after that, as we say here in America, all bets are off.

Sure sign of trouble - The Blazers can ill afford to have any of their "bigs" get into foul trouble which would almost certainly shift the load to either Dittberner or Kelly to bail them out and neither of the two have been major scoring forces this season.


3.  Bethel - The Royals exceeded even my expectations this season as they garnered a solid 21-4 overall record and 16-2 in the unbelievably tough MIAC with those two conference losses coming to the top two seeds UST and GAC and those losses were in single digits that could have gone either way had they caught a break or two when they needed it.  The other two losses this season were also single-digit defeats - to Carthage in Milwaukee back in November and then to likely WIAC Champion UW-Oshkosh right before the first of the year.  So this is a team that can not only play with anyone in the country but certainly has the capability to win this thing.  And two of the reasons why this team can do it are defense and rebounding - their specialties.  This is a very experienced and seasoned group with senior guard Shanni Moorse and juniors Angie Kirchoff and Abby Miller leading the way. Sophomore post Hannah Johnson and freshman forward Taite Anderson have come on strong this year as well and junior reserve guard Jasmin Bretoi can be absolutely lethal from behind the arc.  You can bet that Head Coach Jon Herbrechtsmeyer only wishes that he could get senior Kalli Zimmerman miraculously healed up in time for this thing but, alas, such is not the case.  Still, this team is there and ready to roll the dice.  And, I want to get this out of the way as well.  Should the Royals hold serve at home Wednesday night in their quarterfinal playoff game against Augsburg (which I think they will), they ABSOLUTELY deserve a spot in the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens the rest of the way.  Whether the brain wizards on the NCAA Tournament Committee think the same as I and several others do is another thing but this team has done pretty much all it can do.

Sure sign of trouble - It's a stretch but, if both Abby Miller and Bretoi go stone cold from behind the arc, that puts a lot of pressure on both Johnson and Anderson down low to make up for that.


2.  GAC - Finally.....After years of waiting and wondering if the up-and-down Gusties would ever again return to the ranks of the elite, that question was finally answered with a resounding YES this season as GAC set the MIAC ablaze this year with a fantastic 24-1 record overall and 17-1 in MIAC play; more than good enough to grab the second seed in the MIAC Playoffs and assure themselves of a spot in the Big Dance.  This is likely the best team that GAC has ever had; certainly since the '02-'03 season anyway.  The only blemish was that heartbreaking home defeat to mighty UST; a game where the Gusties controlled the first period before letting things get away from them in the second and third periods before a furious comeback brought them to within a point late in the contest before finally falling.  And, in a somewhat funny kind of way, that loss may do them more good then harm coming into this thing.  You look at this team and you can't help but shake your head at how good they truly are.  They have, without question, the best point guard in the conference (and maybe in the entire West Region) in junior Mikayla Miller who leads the team in scoring and can also get down in the paint to do the dirty work as well.  Sophomore backcourt mate Brooke Lemke has made tremendous strides this season and can be a terror on defense and from behind the arc.  A front line duo of junior Miranda Rice and senior Hannah Howard may not be the biggest out there but they more than make up for that with their play.  And you've got a pretty solid supporting cast of sophomores in Justine Lee, Kendall Thompson and Taylor Anderson.  In other words, this team is freaking LOADED.  Despite a few close calls here and there, this squad has pretty much run roughshod over everybody and this team can easily win this thing - IF - they can manage to get UST out of their head and play like they know how to play for 40 minutes.  And yeah, they have the goods to make a big run in the Dance as well.  Is this Gustie team a team of destiny?  It very well could be and Head Coach Laurie Kelly would love nothing more than to take her squad to the Promised Land.    

Sure sign of trouble -  Aside from an Act of God or nuclear war, it's hard to think of one particular thing that could keep this team from making the MIAC Championship Game.  With the Gusties, it's not so much what they do but who they run into that could cause match-up problems for them.


1.  UST - Ah, yes.  And the world is round as well.  Well, another season and another unblemished record for the Tommies at 25-0 overall and 18-0 in the MIAC.  To be sure, UST has had a few close calls during the regular season - a ten-point win at St. Olaf in early January and then the tussle with GAC in the MIAC Women's Hoops Game of the Century back on February 1.  And don't forget that St. Kate's gave this squad more problems than you can shake a stick at right after that.  Still, the Tommies just find ways to survive and win and their record speaks for itself.  Just looking at the schedule shows how they've handled business against very good teams early on in the season and how that paved the way for things the rest of the way.  Of course, it helps when you have one of the best post players in the nation in senior Kaitlin Langer who can fight through double-teams and triple-teams to score and rebound.  Add senior sharp-shooting guard Gabby Zehrer and junior guard/forward Lauren Fischer who can both bury three-point bombs at the drop of a hat under duress and a seasoned senior guard in Paige Gernes who is a terrific ball-handler and defender and you've got something incredibly special.  Oh, and let's not forget a pretty darn good supporting cast in junior guard Maddie Wolkow and sophomore guard Lucia Renikoff who are both more than capable of coming in and running the show when they have to.  What you have to like about this team is their experience.  They've been through these wars more than once and they know what it's all about and what it takes to win this thing.  And so does Head Coach Ruth Sinn who knows how to move her chess pieces when she has to.  Perhaps the only real knock on this UST team is that they can be a bit predictable at times.  You kind of know what they're going to do, it's just that nobody has really found a way to stop it - yet anyway.  Last year in the NCAA Tournament, a hail of three-pointers by Wartburg sunk the Tommies and you can bet that that's something that keeps Sinn awake some nights.

Sure sign of trouble - See above with GAC.  Defense is the one thing that will help UST win this thing or lose it.


So there you have it.  This could be one of the most hotly-contested MIAC Playoffs in a long, long time and I'm incredibly anxious for it to begin!  Fire away with thoughts.