MIAC Predictions For 2017-18 Season

It's early November which means it's time again to roll out that proverbial crystal ball and make a stab at how the incredibly tough MIAC Women's hoops season is going to go this time around.


The Title Contenders:

1.  UST
2.  GAC
3.  Bethel

The Tommies came oh, so close last year to tasting ultimate victory in the Final Four last year but inexplicably blew a 12-point lead late against Tufts in the national semifinals which is still likely fresh on the Tommies' minds as they enter this new season.  To be sure, they lost some great players to graduation; notably All-American post Kaitlin Langer along with the backcourt duo of Paige Gernes and three-point bomber Gabby Zehrer.  But UST still has a solid nucleus coming back to build around.  Reliable guard Maddie Wolkow and three-point specialist Lauren Fischer are the two seniors who will lead the way for Head Coach Ruth Sinn.  Also figuring prominently in the Tommie attack this time around are juniors Lucia Renikoff and Hannah Spaulding who is the heir apparent to Langer's post spot.  Fellow juniors McKenna DuBois and Bobbi Brendefur could also be key links to the Tommies overall success as well.  That said, I don't know a whole lot about the new faces that Sinn has coming in so I can't say for sure if this squad can expect the same kind of success they had last year.  However, until somebody figures out a way to knock this squad off of the top of the mountain, you have to give them the nod again although I will say UST's margin of error appears to be smaller than what it was last year.

Happy times returned down on U.S. Highway 169 and the Union Pacific's "Omaha Route" mainline as GAC set the MIAC ablaze; racing out to a record-setting 19-0 start before the joyride ended with that tough home loss to said UST team in what was arguably the MIAC Women's Hoops Game of the Century.  And while the Gusties may or may not replicate that 19-0 start we saw the last time around, they certainly seem to have pretty much everything in place that would allow them to get themselves into position to contend for MIAC honors as well as another trip to the Big Dance.  They have arguably the best point guard in the MIAC (and maybe the entire West Region) in senior Mikayla Miller along with juniors Brooke Lemke and Justine Lee to bolster the backcourt.  Fellow junior Kendall Thompson is slowly coming into her own and senior forward Miranda Rice is as tough as they come.  The one big glaring question mark remains at that post spot and I'm not sure how Head Coach Laurie Kelly and her staff plan to address that.  Kelly does bring bring in an exciting group of new faces that includes Marnie and Maddie Wagner from NRHEG and Paige Richert out of Comfrey.  Last year's 25-3 overall record was outstanding but, at the same time, ended in incredible disappointment as they were unceremoniously dumped by UST (again) in the MIAC Championship Game and then were ushered out by DePauw in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  Getting yourself into position to win the MIAC and making a run in the Big Dance is one thing but actually doing it is another thing altogether as the Gusties found out last season.  Can they take things a step further this time around?  We'll see.

It was the best of times and the worst of times last year for Head Coach Jon Herbrechtsmeyer and his Bethel Royals as they went 22-5 overall (16-2 in the MIAC).  But, along the way, senior guard Kalli Zimmerman was lost for the season with a knee injury which would have doomed most squads but the Royals found a way to overcome that loss and had themselves on the brink of the MIAC Championship Game before losing a heartbreaker at GAC.  Their body of work should have been more than enough to get them a berth in the NCAA Tournament but the Tournament Committee saw things differently and, as a result, the Royals found themselves on the outside looking in.  Surely that experience must have left a bad taste in their mouths and, presumably anyway, the Royals must have revenge on their minds.  Still, Herbrechtsmeyer has to deal with not only the loss of Zimmerman but also that of Shanni Moorse who likely was the best defender in the MIAC last season.  However, Bethel does return a solid group of players that should help them stay right in the thick of things.  Senior point guard Abby Miller and fellow backcourt senior Angie Kirchoff give the Royals a guard duo second-to-none in the conference and senior three-point sharpshooter Jasmin Bretoi will likely terrorize MIAC opponents with her three-point prowess.  Junior post Hannah Johnson is slowly blossoming into a solid post player and sophomore Taite Anderson had a fantastic freshman season.  And don't forget about junior guard Hannah Simpson who elevated her game down the stretch last season when the Royals needed someone to step up.  That said, the only big question mark I have with this squad is their depth.  I don't think they can withstand a rash of injuries to key components if they want to have a shot at the MIAC title.  Perhaps just as important, if they want to make amends for last season, they've got to find a way to win games against quality opponents and they'll have two high-quality opponents in the month of November alone:  At UW-River Falls on 11-21 and at home against George Fox on 11-25.


Solid Playoff Contenders:

4.  CSB
5.  Augsburg

Not a bad outing last year for the Blazers as they recorded a 16-11 overall record (11-7 in MIAC play) which was good enough to snare the fourth seed in the MIAC playoffs where they survived a tough home playoff game with St. Kate's before falling to eventual Final Four participant UST in the semis.  While Head Coach Mike Durbin returns a pretty good nucleus from last year, he still has to deal with a very nice triumvirate group lost to graduation that includes Annie Dittberner, Alison Newton and Macy Kelly that accounted for a bulk of CSB's scoring punch last season.  Still, the Blazers will be very long on length and reach this year as seniors Kate Banovetz (6'0"), Nikki Fokken (6'3") and Chelsey Guetter anchor the CSB front line.  And Durbin must feel pretty good about some of the young faces he has to back up that front line with the likes of Megan Anderson (fr) out of Omaha, Nebraska and Shae Olsen from Wayzata.  The big question is who inherits that all-important point guard spot but right now it would appear that sophomore Sidney Schiffler will get the nod as she logged a lot of key minutes last season and is probably the most experienced of the current backcourt group.  Unless either GAC or Bethel somehow falter during the season, it's difficult for me to see the Blazers being a contender for the title but they should be more than good enough to snare a spot in the MIAC playoffs.  In the end, it's how consistent they can be.

Perhaps the most exciting team to watch in the MIAC last year was Augsburg and its very own version of the "Fab 5" with Tamira McLemore, K'Aezha Wubben, Camryn Speese, Aiza Wilson and Ari Jones.  This fun group of freshmen from last year now have a year of experience under their belt and, presumably anyway, should be a year wiser which will no doubt make Auggie Head Coach Ted Riverso smile.  Still, don't expect Riverso to have his team forgo its up-tempo style and aggressive defense which led to a lot of easy transition points along with major headaches for fellow MIAC coaches.  Even better for Augsburg is that they have a solid front-line returner in senior Bridget Bednar who could be a difference-maker for this Auggie team.  Last year, Augsburg got off to a solid 6-0 start but had a disastrous stretch in December and January before they were able to turn things around late to grab that sixth playoff spot.  If they can find some consistency and avoid that mid-season swoon they had last year, they may be able to take things a step further this time around.


Fighting For The Sixth Spot:

6.  St. Kate's
7.  SMU
8.  Carleton
9.  Macalester

I see at least four teams this time around that could possibly be in play for that sixth spot in the MIAC Playoffs.  Based on their experience, I'm inclined to give the edge to St. Kate's here but, they too, have a ton of questions to answer.  Most notably is the change in the head coaching spot where Don Mulhern comes in after an 11-year stint up at UW-Superior.  Coaching changes can be a tough transition for many programs but this is one guy who can flat-out coach the living daylights out of you.  All Mulhern did at UW-Superior is take a near-moribund program and turn it into a contender in the always tough WIAC.  When the Yellowjackets made the big switch over to the UMAC, they literally took that conference by its throat and Mulhern led UW-Superior to the NCAA Tournament in his last two seasons there.  To be sure, the Wildcats lost a talented senior triumvirate of its own to graduation in Mari Lee, Kennedy Jennings and dazzling LaShay Holt.  However, Mulhern does have a very talented and experienced nucleus of players coming back led by the twin sister senior duo of Audra and Meg Clark making St. Kate's incredibly strong in the backcourt.  Also back is senior sharpshooter Alexis Garcia who will be counted on heavily with her three-point prowess.  Another player to keep your eye on is flashy sophomore Danica Cambrice who could very well be the next big playmaker for the Wildcats.  Still, there's a lot of untested youth on this team and the post position will likely continue to be a big question mark for St. Kate's.

Things were looking rosy for Head Coach Brent Pollari and SMU last year - until they hit the home stretch where the Cardinals went into an absolute tailspin; losing nine out of their last 11 games that cost them the sixth spot in the MIAC Playoffs.  And, just like CSB and St. Kate's, they lost a talented group to graduation in Emma Schaefer, Brigette Audette and Sam Jones along with Raelynn Speltz.  This 2017-18 version is an incredibly young team with only one senior on the roster - Alexa Huisman.  But there's also two experienced underclassmen with juniors Brandi Blattner and Brittney Flom which gives SMU an incredibly tough front line.  Once you get beyond that, however, a ton of question marks remain and they'll need to get off to a solid start and hopefully withstand a grueling stretch if they want to reverse last season's misfortunes.

Carleton made definite strides last season and had a solid January; winning five games in a row before the wheels came off in February.  This time around, however, Head Coach Cassie Kosiba finally has a solid group of seniors that just might possibly allow the Knights to make that decisive move into the MIAC playoffs.  This experienced group includes Sarah Paller, Sarah Waldfogel, Lindsey Chavez, Katherine Miles and, most importantly, Anne Hamilton.  Along with fellow senior Anna Flitner, Kosiba now has a seasoned group of returners for the first time and, perhaps just as important, some elements of depth as well.  Again, Carleton's margin for error is not large here.  They can ill-afford to have a rash of injuries that they've had in years past and they certainly can't fold the tent once February comes around.  But this could be a team to keep your eyes on should things go right for them.

Macalester has been able to take a step forward in each of the last two years under Head Coach Kelly Roysland and there's no reason to believe that the Scots aren't capable of taking things another step forward this time around.  Roysland and her staff did bid adieu to a nice group of seniors - Park Masterson, Lauren Clamage, Karen Rathjens and Emilie McGuire but the Scots do return a lot of experience this time around in seniors Grace Dickman, Regan Fruh, Leah Gray and playmaker Vivi Gregorich along with G. G. Gunther off the bench.  A healthy Dickman could be key in Macalester's hopes this time around as she missed a good chunk of last season due to injury.  In addition, Roysland has a nice incoming class of freshman that could provide some depth in the front-court area.  The Scots get tested early with a trip down to Decorah to play IIAC powerhouse Luther but the rest of the non-conference portion of the schedule looks halfway manageable.  The big questions for Macalester is (a) Can they stay healthy and (b) Can they find some consistency along the way and perhaps beat a team or two that they wouldn't normally be expected to beat?


Looking For Brighter Days:

10.  Concordia
11.  St. Olaf
12.  Hamline

It seems weird to be talking about Concordia in this position as opposed to where they normally are anyway in playoff contention, doesn't it?  Yet the Cobbers slipped badly last season; saddled with a losing record of 8-17 overall and 5-13 in the MIAC for the first time in a long, long time.  Even worse is the fact that three of the players who provided most of the scoring last year were lost to graduation - namely Greta Walsh, Jenna Januschka and Crystal Amundson.  Without having a current roster on their website to rely on, it's hard to shed much light on what new faces Head Coach Jessica Rahman and her staff have coming in.  However, they do have some important pieces coming back in senior guard (and Jessica's daughter) Cassidy Rahman and with juniors Jamie Mentzer and Grace Wolhow.  Fellow junior Lincoln Haiby saw considerable playing time last season as did sophomore Shelby Duckstad in the post spot.  So obviously the jury's still out on this squad and while I wouldn't necessarily expect significant improvement this time around, don't understimate Rahman who will undoubtedly roll up her sleeves and do whatever is necessary to get Concordia back to the ranks of the elite.

Another incredibly young and fresh-faced team in the MIAC resides on the west side of Northfield as St. Olaf looks to build on a 8-17 overall record (4-14 in MIAC).  To get an idea of how young this team is, all you have to do is look at their roster.  Four freshman, nine sophomores and two juniors so if Head Coach Dave Stromme wants to play the "We're young but fun" card, he's got every right to.  Still, it's not a team without some notable talent.  Junior Makenna Ash is a solid player down in the post spot and fellow junior Meg Andersen is a willowy wing player who can be a threat out on the perimeter.  The big loss, of course, is Betsey Daley to graduation who could virtually do it all and kept the Oles in many games last season.  Replacing her is bad enough but an even bigger question might be as to who Stromme decides to insert into the all-important point guard spot.

New Hamline Head Coach Alex Focke takes the reigns of the Pipers program and has a lot of work to do over on Snelling Avenue as Hamline comes off of a disappointing 5-20 (2-16 MIAC) record.  And it won't be easy for Focke to replace a graduated Chloe Graves who averaged 11.8 ppg and had 40 steals last year to boot.  Also gone are Tia Diggins and Ivannie Robertson.  Like St. Olaf, this will be an incredibly young team as well but it's not without talent either.  Junior guard Alaina Quaranta who led Hamline last year with 12.1 ppg also snared 62 steals last year which gives you a bit of an idea of what a menace she can be on defense.  Also returning are sophomores Reilly Geistfeld, Kaeli Stayer, Aly Sartain and Morgen Coleman so Focke does have a nice little nucleus to work with.  But Hamline faithful have to stay patient and let the seed grow in a highly competitive MIAC.

Anyway, this is how I see things shaping up right now.  As always, feel free to chime in with your thoughts and comments.