MIAC Playoff Preview 2-24-20

Oh yes - that time of the year again when things start getting really fun.  Have been looking forward to this for a while now and it's finally here.  As you can imagine, this season has certainly had its moments of unpredictability to be sure but things eventually did settle down just enough to get the six teams involved in this little party set up.  With that said, let's take a look at things from top to bottom and see how this all might shape up.


6.  St. Kate's - Considering the roller coaster season this squad has had and all the injuries they've suffered since practice began back in mid-October, the 'Cats are probably pretty fortunate to be in this position in the first place.  And it's not like they're coming into this little party with a head of steam either having lost three of their last four games; including that epic four-overtime thriller up at Concordia the previous weekend.  Yet, through it all, Head Coach Don Mulhern and his staff found a way to get this team into the MIAC's Promised Land.  This is a team that leans heavily on the athleticism and scoring punch of senior guard Danica Cambrice who averages 15.2 ppg but they've had some new faces step up this year as well who have shown that they can rise to the occasion.  Freshman forward Bree Glynn (7.0 ppg) and fellow freshman guard Cierra Ahlf (7.0 ppg) have all contributed and senior guard Jackie Radford (8.0 ppg) has been the rock on both ends of the floor and isn't one bit afraid to do any necessary hard banging down low in the paint fighting for rebounds.  Junior guard Brooke Torvik (3.7 ppg) has also come off the bench and provided quality minutes and, because of the injuries to players such as sophomore forward Sam Orth, sophomore guard Mackenzie Kurczek and sophomore post Katie Benjamin, Mulhern has been forced to dig deeper into his bench which has resulted in the emergence of players such as freshman forward Sarah Lavell (4.5 ppg) and senior reserve guard Emma Nelson so St. Kate's is far from destitute.  On the other hand, I think it's safe to say that many were looking for some more consistency from this team and because of the injuries and how tough this conference truly is, that simply didn't happen this season.  So how does that all bode for this team this week?  I'm not entirely sure but if this squad plays anything like they did at Hamline not long ago, they have the ability to do some damage in this thing.  If they play anything like they did at Concordia or the regular season finale where things slipped away late, it'll likely be a quick exit.

Sure sign of trouble - God forbid should Cambrice find herself in foul trouble early in Tuesday night's tilt at neighboring UST because they need her creativity on the offensive end just to have a chance.


5.  Hamline - Then, of course, if you think St. Kate's season was and up-and-down roller coaster ride, just take a look at Hamline as their season could arguably be described as schizophrenic at times.  Consider:  This was a team that had won seven in a row from early December through mid-January and had ripped off three consecutive wins in late January/early February and was flirting with the idea of perhaps stealing the fourth playoff spot.  But then came the culminating home loss in a showdown with UST early this month and, for whatever reason, that seemed to suck a lot of momentum that Pipers had.  Five straight losses ensued before they recovered enough in that fourth period against Concordia on Saturday to save their season - at least for the time being anyway.  This is a team that has a lot of scorers but relies primarily on senior forward Reilly Geistfeld (15.7 ppg) and freshman sensation forward Lydia Lecher (12.5 ppg).  Sophomore guard Chan'el Anderson-Manning (7.7 ppg) can get up and down the floor with ease and can burn you from behind the arc when left open as well.  On the minus side, however, this is a team that normally gets outrebounded as the numbers would suggest (34.7 to the opponent's 38.4) and has been permissive on defense on numerous occasions.  You just never quite know for sure what you're going to get from this group.  If it's the team that was in the midst of its winning streak or in that fourth period against Concordia where they played with that sense of urgency, they can play with anyone.  If it's the team that was mired in that late-season slump this month, their playoff experience will be a short-lived affair. 

Sure sign of trouble - This is a team that seems to play best when they get into transition opportunities but they're incredibly suspect if they get forced to play a slower-paced, half-court game. 


4.  GAC - Quite simply, this is a team that you can easily fall in love with but no matter what you do, they will, in some form or fashion, find a way to break your heart into a million little pieces.  This was a team that was 11-1 in early January and easily could have (and should have) been 12-0.  Even though they got thumped at Bethel, you would have expected they would recover okay from that.  But the first real warning sign was when they followed that up with a loss up at Concordia four days later.  Then that disastrous week with home losses to both CSB and UST.  And then the three straight losses to end the regular season.  True, they did have their share of misfortunes this season as well; particularly with losing junior guard Gabby Bowlin to a broken hand.  Still, I think this team still has enough weapons to make an impact in these playoffs.  They're led by freshman sensation forward Caitlin Rorman (16.3 ppg) and junior point guard Ava Gonsorowski has been the steady rock on this team in the backcourt (13.1 ppg).  Junior forward/post Paige Richert; although a bit inconsistent at times, has had her moments and gets the job done down low (10.6 ppg).  Perhaps the biggest surprise has been the emergence of both junior guard Marisa Gustafson (8.6 ppg) and freshman reserve guard Maddy Rice (7.7 ppg) and both are deadly from behind the arc.  Freshman guard Anna Sanders and junior guard Alison Hinck have both had to step up their games with Bowlin's injury.  On the minus side though, this team does average 17.0 turnovers per game and they simply haven't been consistent enough to be considered a real threat to do the unthinkable and win this whole thing.  Even Head Coach Laurie Kelly will probably tell you that they're likely a year away from getting back to where they were just a couple two or three years ago.  That said, they're probably good enough to at least get past Hamline on Tuesday night but anything beyond that - especially on the road, well, I've probably got a better chance at winning the Powerball or snagging a date with Cameron Diaz. 

Sure sign of trouble - Assuming they make it into the semifinals, they've got to find some way to out-rebound an Augsburg or a Bethel to have a chance and they've got to sink enough "3's" to give themselves a chance.  Take those two things away, oh boy.....


3.  UST - Isn't it just really weird to see the Tommies sitting in this position when they've been ruling this conference seemingly since B.C.?  In reality, this is the first time since 2014 when there's been someone else other than UST winning the MIAC regular season championship and we all remember that that didn't faze the Tommies one bit as they went down to Winona and knocked off top-seeded SMU in the MIAC Championship Game.  This time around, the circumstances were different as this team has a whole new make-up consisting mainly of freshmen and sophomores.  Then you throw in junior forward Kaia Porter being lost for the season with a knee injury and it's amazing that UST even got themselves into the position where they're at.  The Tommies rely heavily on sophomore post Brynne Rolland (17.7 ppg) and she's been getting better and better with each game.  Junior point guard Macy Hatlestad (11.5 ppg) has steadied the ship for UST in the backcourt.  Sophomore guard Amber Darge (9.0 ppg) has been a pleasant surprise but perhaps the biggest new piece to this puzzle is junior guard Noelle Tomes who transferred in from Air Force (7.8 ppg) and has been invaluable coming off the bench.  When you look at the overall body of work that this team has done, they've won the games they've supposed to and had to eek out a big road win at GAC - a contest that easily could have gone either way.  They were swept by Augsburg, however, and took it on the chin against Bethel.  However, if there's ANYONE who knows how to guide her team through stormy waters in the MIAC Playoffs, it's Head Coach Ruth Sinn.  She's been through these battles more than enough times to know what it takes to win.  And if there's one team that has the ability to upset the apple cart and take this thing, it's probably this group.  They're not going to give up their grip on MIAC supremacy without a fight. 

Sure sign of trouble - This squad has had problems with turnovers this season and a plethora of them - especially against either an Augsburg or Bethel - would be a death sentence for this team.  And Rolland has GOT to stay out of foul trouble as well. 


2.  Augsburg - Now I picked the Auggies to win this thing back in the fall and I don't think that was a bad pick at all when you consider what they all had coming back - which is pretty much everybody.  And they did sweep UST this season so they've got two wins over a regionally-ranked team under their belt.  With the losses they have suffered, it wasn't so much that they lost.  Rather, it's the manner in which they lost them.  They were hammered by Puget Sound over the Thanksgiving holiday and then lost that critical game at home against Bethel when they were in a position to win it.  A puzzling loss at GAC a week and a half later followed before getting taken to the woodshed in the rematch with Bethel over at Robertson Center this last Wednesday night.  The Auggies, in short, can be beautiful to watch when they're clicking offensively or your worst nightmare when things are a little off.  When they get their transition game going, they're moving down the court faster than a hot BNSF intermodal "Z" train.  Defensively at times this year, well.......It hasn't always been there at times.  They do a great job of getting into the passing lanes for quick steals that fuels that transition game of theirs.  But they also give up a lot of easy stuff that they shouldn't be giving up at times as well.  They're led be senior guard Tamira McLemore (16.1 ppg) and senior forward Camryn Speese (13.0 ppg).  Senior guard Aiza Wilson (9.8) can be an absolute terror from behind the arc when she's feeling it and junior forward/post Jazmyn Solseth (9.1 ppg) has vastly improved her game and is now a true offensive threat.  Senior guard K'aezha Wubben (9.5 ppg) may be the biggest piece coming off Head Coach Ted Riverso's bench but he's got more than that.  Both junior guard Nicole Zielsdorf and freshman guard Jaley Coplin are legitmate three-point threats as well.  Now, the Auggies do have a big thing in their favor in that they are in the positive column when it comes to turnovers (+8.3 in turnover margin).  However, a couple of glaring statistics are cause for concern:  Their rebounding margin is -3.2 and their free throw shooting is a dismal .653 compared to opponents' .716.  Those two items right there could keep this team from getting to the Promised Land (aka the NCAA Tournament); which was the case last year. 

Sure sign of trouble - Riverso will probably be reaching for the Rolaids should either Speese or Solseth get into early foul trouble. 


1.  Bethel - After years of promise and falling short, it's finally happened for the Royals as things finally came together for this group and they blazed through the MIAC this year with just one mark on their resume - a shocking loss to SMU early this month down in Winona.  But even the best teams occasionally have hiccups and it's probably just as well that Bethel had theirs and got it out of their system at a good time.  I wouldn't call this team an offensive juggernaut by any means.  Rather, this team lives by its defense as they hold opponents to an average of 54.8 points per game.  Their pressure defense can best be described as those angry raptors from the Jurassic Park movies.  When they gang up on you, forget it.  It's over.  They just get on you and suffocate you as they've done to opponents so many times this season.  But yes, they do have offensive prowess to be sure and they're led by likely MIAC POY senior forward Taite Anderson (21.3 ppg) and junior guard Makenna Pearson (10.1 ppg) who can make you pay in spades from behind the arc.  Senior point guard Haylee Barker (9.6 ppg) has the ability to score, of course, but her specialty is defense and there is simply no on-ball defender better than her in the MIAC - and maybe the entire West Region.  Junior forward Elizabeth Schwarz (9.1 ppg) is often the forgotten factor on this team and slender freshman guard Kat Brown-Erdal (8.4 ppg) has slowly started coming into her own.  Junior guard Bella Williams (4.4 ppg) isn't necessarily the biggest scoring threat out there but she is the perfect compliment to Barker on defense.  I think you knew that, at some point, Head Coach Jon Herbrechtsmeyer would have one of his teams in this position at some point and its finally happened for this program.  With the way they play defense, they have the ability to go far and I'm not just talking about the MIAC Playoffs either.

Sure sign of trouble - The scenarios are tough to imagine but the only worry I see here is if they go completely cold behind the arc or suffer a letdown like they did against SMU.  Highly unlikely, of course, but weirder things have happened. 


So, there you have it.  This little party gets started tomorrow (Tuesday) night.  Be there or be square.