Here we are again; getting ready for the best time of the year and this year's version of the upcoming MIAC Playoffs should be as interesting and eventful as always. The cast of characters in this year's little party are pretty much who we thought would be there at the end although the positioning may or may not have been what some might have thought it would be. In any event, it's time to break this all down and get a better feel for this week. So let's get to it and break this down like we always do - from bottom to top.
6. Hamline - To say that this regular season for Hamline would be a lot like one of the big roller coaster rides that one might take at a big amusement park might be the understatement of the year because with the Pipers, it seemed like at times they were really heading up and at other times, they were going down like the obligatory anvil in the Road Runner/Wile Coyote cartoons. Consider: Hamline started out the season fairly strong; winning five of their first six games. Then the Pipers went into an absolute funk - losing eight out of their next nine games. Then Hamline would win four of their next five games - including that big home win over Concordia back on 1-27. You'd see the Pipers getting a big win at Augsburg and then following that up with an equally lopsided loss at home to St. Olaf a few nights later. Home wins over both Macalester and St. Scholastica and then getting taken to the cleaners in the regular season finale at GAC. It was just that kind of year for Hamline yet they did just enough to grab that final playoff spot and at least stay alive for a few more days. But you look at this Hamline team and you see that there's plenty of talent for first year Head Coach Josh Hersch to work with. You've got electric senior forward Lydia Lecher who can get things done down low or slay you from behind the arc (11.6 ppg) and fellow senior guard Michaela Stamer (11.3 ppg) is a solid one in the backcourt. Did I say something about this team being able to slay you from downtown? In that case, you should get yourself familiarized with sophomore guard (CC) Camille Cummings (10.8 ppg) who has the ability to tear you to shreds from behind the arc as she did with Concordia back in late January. Throw in a pretty decent supporting cast of junior guard Kate Trachsel, fellow junior forward Faith Johnson and sophomore guard Sophie Stork and it's difficult to explain all the ups and downs this team had. If you look at team stats - particularly overall defense - you see that Hamline is right up there in total team defense in holding opponents to an average of 60.6 ppg which isn't bad at all. But when you start diving into some other numbers and you see that the Pipers are eighth in the conference in total team rebounds and also carry a rebounding margin of -0.5, that's where you start to see some problems. Here's another stat that should bother you if you're on the Hamline side of things: The Pipers aren't that efficient from the charity stripe as they shot .696% (286-411) from the free throw line and anyone who knows something about hoops will tell you that that's not even close to being good enough. You see how this season has played out for Hamline from the start and you just know that their prospects aren't very good here.
Sure sign of trouble - We know that this team likes to push the ball and be up-tempo. But if they get forced into a slower, half-court game, things are not going to go well for them. And should they falter from behind the arc as well, you can count on an early exit.
5. CSB - When it comes to the Bennies, one COULD make the argument that, in reality, this is probably the third best team in the conference and I think after what we saw this last Saturday, one could make that argument stand up. However, CSB was guilty of too many transgressions (both at home AND on the road) during the regular season and arguably the victim of some incredibly rotten bad luck at times this year as well. For the most part, the Bennies won the games that they should have won but there were some games that were just head-scratchers: The loss at Grinnell back on 12-10, getting smothered by Bethel at Claire Lynch in early January and that wild double OT loss at St. Kate's a few days later. It just seemed like when CSB looked like they might be gaining traction at a certain point, they always managed to stumble somewhere. But you look at this team and you see a lot of weapons that can make them so incredibly dangerous this time of year. The Bennies definitely have some scorers on this team and they're normally led by senior point guard Carla Meyer (14.0 ppg) who's as tough as they come on both ends of the floor and junior guard Sophia Jonas (11.7 ppg) is not someone that opponents would want to give carte blanche to behind the arc as we saw this last Saturday. Ditto for sophomore guard Megan Morgan (9.5 ppg) and sophomore combo forward/post Kira Young (10.0 ppg) is starting to come into her own. Head Coach Mike Durbin also has some good experience coming off the bench as well; particularly senior guard Morgan Ebel who stepped up nicely against St. Kate's this last Saturday. You look at some of the stats for this team and you'll see that the Bennies are right up there with the best of them when it comes to total offense where they rank third. Defense? Well, that's been a bit of a different story as CSB is in ninth place as they allow opponents to score an average of 65.2 a game. In fact, in combined team rebounds, you'll see the Bennies in sixth place in this category with an average of 34.8 rebounds a game which isn't bad but could probably be better. But in the rebounding margin, CSB ranks eighth at -1.5 which is a red flag. Still, I'll be willing to cut the Bennies a break here after what I saw this last Saturday. They definitely have the pieces and the ability to be the one team outside of the top two seeds to upset the apple cart here and throw this thing into total chaos. However, as good as they can be at home, can they do this on the road - in a hostile environment? As I said after covering their game last Saturday versus St. Kate's, therein lies the challenge for CSB and even with that ability, they have to know that the odds are stacked mightily against them.
Sure sign of trouble - Foul trouble and the three-point bombs not falling. Plus the fact that all the teams ahead of them - save for perhaps St. Kate's - have the ability to be more physical than they are.
4. Bethel - The Royals took a step forward from last year's disappointing campaign and got that big win last Wednesday night against said CSB team to secure the fourth seed setting up the rematch at Robertson Center on Tuesday night. Despite being far from perfect, it was arguably a much more steady ship in sometimes rough waters as Head Coach Jon Herbrechtsmeyer - back on the sidelines this season - guided this young team along and got them better and better as the season progressed. Sure, they took their lumps against both GAC and Concordia but also dished out some lumps as well against lesser opponents. The modus operandi of this squad hasn't changed despite the young cast members; they're still going to use their defensive prowess to set up opportunities on the other end. This is a team that, for the most part anyway, plays solid fundamental basketball. Bethel is led by senior guard Anna Garfield 13.6 ppg and gets a lot of scoring help from junior combo guard/forward Elly Schmitz (13.0 ppg) We've seen flashes from freshman forward Emily Erickson at times this season too. Sophomore point guard Colette Duininck is slowly but surely starting to come into her own and Herbrechtsmeyer has some nice pieces off the bench in sophomore forward Alli Born and freshman guard Macey Littlefield. As you would expect, the Royals are right up there in total team defense (ranked second) allowing an average of 58.0 per game. And they're fourth in the conference in total offense (64.9 ppg) which certainly isn't bad either. The bottom line is that you don't see a lot of red flags when you look at all the other stats either. So, there are a lot of positives here. However, you have to think that with the youth factor on this team, there's obviously a ceiling when it comes to Bethel. They haven't been able to recapture the magic of that 2020 season yet and it might be a year or two before they can even start thinking in those terms again.
Sure sign of trouble - The last thing Herbrechtsmeyer and his staff want to have happen is to get caught up in a track meet with any of these opponents and they know that it's a losing proposition to even think about trying to.
3. St. Kate's - Whoda thunk it? For the first time in program history, the St. Kate's Wildcats have snared the number three seed and a quarterfinal home game that goes with it. Head Coach Don Mulhern deserves a lot of credit for bringing this team along; particularly after the sixth spot slipped away from them on the very last day of the regular season last year. I think what's even more amazing when you take a look at this team is not so much that they did what they did but HOW they did it. Oh, to be sure, there were arguably some dramatic moments in this regular season for the Wildcats with the wild double OT win over CSB and the incredible comeback at Bethel early this month. But here's the other thing about the 'Cats that's got to be pointed out here - did we envision that this team would be led by a babe in the woods who would not only deliver flair and drama at the most crucial moments but also lead this team in scoring? Well, that's exactly what freshman guard Hattie Fox has done this season as she leads the way with her 13.8 ppg. And St. Kate's has a true sniper from behind the arc in junior forward Greta Schimnowski (10.4 ppg) whom opponents had bloody well better get a body on unless they want to be burned badly. Here's the other thing I like about this St. Kate's team: Mulhern finally has some length in the form of sophomore forward Emme Golembiewski who can not only score inside but also rebound and swat away opponents shots like flies. And a good supporting cast in junior forward Rachel Randleman and senior point guard Karis Zezza who can intercept more passes than a chaperone at a debutante ball. For good measure, Mulhern can move his chess pieces around when he needs to with junior forward Sydney Elliott, sophomore guard Kaylee Miron and sophomore guard Maddie Young along with freshman forward Lily Peper coming off the bench. This kind of depth is something that Mulhern and his staff really haven't had before and it has paid dividends for them this time around. So why do I feel that this St. Kate's team might be the most vulnerable of all here? The experience factor. They've never been in this position before and we don't know how they're going to handle it either. One thing we do know is that they absolutely cannot dig themselves into a canyon like they have so many times this season and expect to magically get out of it. But here's a stat that caught my eye when it comes to St. Kate's and might help hope spring eternal for the 'Cats - they rank first in the conference in combined team rebounds (36.9) and I don't think that many expected that (certainly I didn't). The good news is that, stat-wise anyway, you don't see a lot of red flags here. The bad news? Even with a win Tuesday night, they're going to have to pull a 1969 New York Mets miracle against either GAC or Concordia and I think we kind of know how that's going to turn out, don't we?
Sure sign of trouble - See above......There's just no way on God's green earth the Wildcats can afford to get themselves into a canyon and hope to get bailed out this week.
2. Concordia - I think most everyone had the Cobbers penned into the number two spot before the season began so there's certainly no shock or surprise there. But, in my mind anyway, this time around Concordia is a much stronger and experienced number two seed than they were a year ago. Again, as I have reiterated earlier (and you saw this in my last two Power Rankings as well), the Cobbers passed the "eye test" with flying colors (save for a few rough patches in that next to last game against St. Olaf) and this time around, they seem to me to be a true title contender. And here's why. Last year, senior guard Emily Beseman (a great scorer in her own right at 11.9 ppg) had to shoulder so much of the load last season and bailed that team out on more than one occasion. This time around, she's got a lot of help and leading the scoring attack this season is strong junior forward Makayla Anderson (14.6 ppg) who easily has my vote for MIAC POY honors. Oh, and let's not forget that Anderson can not only dominate inside on the scoring front but she can also be a threat from behind the arc as well. Rebounding? Anderson collected her 500th-career rebound at Concordia earlier this season - case closed. In short, her game has improved leaps and bounds from last year. I guess we shouldn't forget about junior guard Carlee Sieben either (14.5 ppg) as she can dart into traffic for a tough finish or slay you from downtown. Then you've got junior forward Greta Tollefson and senior guard Jordyn Kahler providing good support from both scoring and rebound perspectives. But here's the really cool thing about this Concordia team: Head Coach Kim Wagers really has some good chess pieces coming off the bench providing needed relief (and a scoring punch as well) for the starters. Here, I speak of senior guard Maddie Guler, freshman guard Genevieve Gruba, freshman guard Alexa Snesrud, sophomore guard Taylor Safranski, sophomore guard Molly Musland and freshman post Maci Wheeldon. Having this kind of depth and quality has just made this team deeper than a nuclear submarine and that much better as well. You look at the stats and you'll see Concordia right up there when it comes to both team offense and team defense. And we already know that free throw shooting is a hallmark strength of this team. Here's the other thing too - the Cobbers are first in the conference in turnover margin as well and that's huge this time of year. Last year, I think this team was kind of feeling things out being up toward the top spot and vying for it. This time around, they're more than good enough to win it. I'm not saying that they will (remember, we all know who's ahead of them) but they absolutely can.
Sure sign of trouble - There aren't many holes to speak of with this group but in a big situation, Wagers absolutely HAS to keep Anderson from getting into foul trouble early on.
1. GAC - After winning the last two MIAC Championship Games, the MIAC Playoffs should seem like old hat for the Gusties and Head Coach Laurie Kelly. But GAC has dreams beyond the MIAC Championship Game and perhaps rightfully so as they've suffered only two blips this season - to Rhode Island right before the Christmas holiday and then early this month against aforementioned Concordia team up in Moorhead - all forgivable offenses, IMHO. GAC has done what they've needed to do to win their second straight outright regular season title and the top seed that goes with it. Not much has changed from a year ago.....It's not like there's one standout player who leads the way. Rather, it's a conglomeration of a lot of really good pieces that all have the ability to step up when necessary. A review of the scoring stats would certainly seem to back up this observation as senior guard Syd Hauger (11.8 ppg) who always seems to be in the right place at the right time on both ends of the floor, senior guard Emma (not evil) Kneifel (11.4 ppg) and junior forward Rachel Kawiecki (11.3 ppg) lead the way. But you also have junior point guard Kylie Baranick (7.8 ppg) who's as steady as they come and acrobatic senior guard Izzy (Izzy Izzy, you're making me dizzy) Quick (7.6 ppg) who can not only score but can come out of nowhere to grab those long rebounds and wreak havoc on the defensive end as well. And, like aforementioned Concordia team, Laurie Kelly has developed a pretty deep bench as well that can come in and provide much-needed relief - and experience in senior guard Riley Queensland, senior guard Lexi Schermann and junior forward Morgan Kelly but there's also some youngsters trying to make a name for themselves as well. Freshman guard Emily Bowron, freshman guard Ella Peters, freshman guard Kendyl Queensland and freshman guard Emy Wolkow are all providing quality minutes in relief. This is a team that can say, "Been there. Done that." You look at all of the stats and you'll see the Gusties at or close to the top. The only stat that should bother Laurie Kelly and her staff is the team free throw percentage where the Gusties are sixth in the conference at .696% and obviously you want that number to be better. Is this a team that might've peaked too early? Not necessarily. We saw the Gusties recover just fine after the loss to Concordia up in Moorhead earlier this month. I think for GAC, the important thing to remember is that the road ahead this week is arguably going to be tougher this time around and they've got to be prepared - both mentally and physically.
Sure sign of trouble - It's really hard to think of something off the top of my head and it's difficult to envision the Gusties having any kind of letdown to speak of. However, they have to know and understand that they wear a much bigger target on their back this time around.
So there you have it. I think it goes without saying that this is going to be a fun and eventful week. And, unlike last year, we shouldn't have to worry about Mother Nature rearing its ugly head so that's good. I'll also be keeping a close eye on things going on around the other conferences and the next release of the Regional Rankings as well. What do you say we get this little party started?!!!
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