So I did indeed promise that I'd talk a little bit about Wednesday night's HUGE clash - the Showdown In St. Peter - when Concordia travels down to take on GAC with first place on the line; among other important things. Now, while maybe this contest doesn't have quite the same hype as the MIAC Women's Basketball Game Of The Century (UST vs GAC back in 2017), it still is so incredibly important on so many different fronts - perhaps more so for Concordia. But, I thought I'd try and break things down here a bit and take a stab at how this one might turn out:
Backcourt:
Concordia - Emily Beseman (Sr), Carlee Sieben (So), Jordyn Kahler (Jr)
Key Reserves - Maddie Guler (Jr), Taylor Safranski (Fr), Molly Musland (Fr)
GAC - Anna Sanders (Sr), Kylie Baranick (So), Emma Kniefel (Jr)
Key Reserves - Syd Hauger (Jr), Lexi Schermann (Jr)
This is a tough one.....I mean, when you look at the three mainstays for the Gustie backcourt, it's about as solid as there is in the MIAC. All are reliable and all can score. And Sanders is one of the best in terms of pure leadership. But, one thing that the Cobbers have that GAC doesn't is a scorer who can go off at the most critical times like Beseman can. She just has that uncanny takeover ability and I saw that in full display this last Saturday at St. Kate's. That's why I give a slight edge to Concordia on this item alone.
Frontcourt:
Concordia - Makayla Anderson (So), Symone Beld (So)
Key Reserves - Mary Sem (Sr), Greta Tollefson (So)
GAC - Rachel Kawiecki (So), Grace Benz (Sr)
Key Reserves - Morgan Kelly (So), Sienna Wiebusch (Sr)
To be sure, the Cobbers have a TON of potential when it comes to the two main cogs on the front line - Anderson and Beld. Both are long and Beld does have the ability to step back and take the "3" if given the open look which can make her dangerous from a scoring standpoint alone. However, it was easy to see that these two; even with all the potential that they have, are a little green around the gills when it comes to boxing out and rebounding. There's some issues on that front and all one has to do is check the box score from this last Saturday's game at St. Kate's and you'll see what I'm talking about. GAC on the other hand is just about as solid and in good hands as one could possibly ask for when you talk about Kawiecki and Benz. Kawiecki is just about the toughest rebounder I've seen in a long, long time in the MIAC and all I can say is good luck in trying to box her out. And I've said it before and I'll say it again - Benz is easily the most under-appreciated player in the MIAC. She can rebound. She can score. She can get into and lead a fast break opportunity. She knows how to get her teammates involved on the offensive end as well. And she's a great leader, too. Advantage GAC.
Intangibles:
Both teams lost key players during the regular season. On the Concordia side, senior guard Autumn Thompson last started for the Cobbers back on 1-11 when they knocked off CSB in St. Joe. I'm not personally aware of what happened with Thompson but it's not only a key loss from a scoring standpoint but from a leadership on the floor standpoint as well. For GAC, the Gusties lost a key reserve who normally sees several minutes off the bench providing some key relief on the frontline when junior forward Izzy (Izzy Izzy, you're making me dizzy) Quick went down with a foot injury that has her out for the rest of the season. Both teams have taken a "next person up" approach as Kahler now gets the nod in the starting line-up for the Cobbers and Wiebusch has been seeing more and more minutes in relief as well for the Gusties.
The Skinny:
If I were the one setting the odds for Vegas on this one, I'd be inclined to make the Cobbers 3.5 point road dogs in this one and I don't think that's terribly far off given that I think that the Gusties would be favored at home in Lund Arena. Can the Cobbers pull off the big upset on the road? Absolutely they can. However, they don't dare get themselves down by double-digits and try to pull a rabbit out of their hat like they did with CSB at Memorial Auditorium or with St. Kate's this last Saturday at Butler Center. Rebounding and defense are going to be key for Concordia if they hope to sweep the season series. But I think that GAC's experience in these types of situations is going to pay huge dividends for them and I think they do what they need to do down the stretch to get the "W".
Also, the very first Regional Rankings will soon be unveiled and will give us all an idea of where everybody stands in Region 9. With that in mind, I think we should take a look around at other conferences to see what's going on.
UMAC - It's practically academic that the UMAC will only get one team in and right now, Northwestern is easily ruling the roost as they are undefeated in conference play at 10-0 and it'd be a huge surprise if someone knocks them in the UMAC Playoffs.
MWC - This appears to be a two-way fight with Knox undefeated in conference play at 12-0 (17-4 overall) and Ripon right behind at 11-1 (15-6 overall).
ARC - Here's where things start to get interesting as Wartburg leads the pack being undefeated in conference play at 12-0 ((17-4 overall) and Loras right behind at 10-2 in conference play (17-4 overall) with Coe lurking at 8-5 (16-6 overall). Wartburg and Loras appear to be "locks" right now but Coe would have to do the unthinkable and win the ARC Playoffs and that's where it starts getting dangerous for the MIAC. Ironically, Loras hosts Wartburg in the regular season finale in Dubuque which will obviously have an effect on Regional Rankings and possibly seeding in the ARC Playoffs as well.
WIAC - Talk about an unbridled mess. The WIAC right now has two teams tied for first place with 8-3 conference records (UW-Whitewater and UW-Stout with the former having an overall record of 17-5 and the latter having an overall record of 16-6). Right behind them, you have two teams with 7-4 conference records (UW-Oshkosh and UW-Eau Claire with the former having a 17-5 overall record and the latter holding a 16-6 overall record). UW-La Crosse is right behind this mess with a 6-5 conference record but they're also 17-5 overall. When I look at this and knowing a little about the history of the WIAC Playoffs and how everybody is capable of beating everybody, I can see at LEAST three teams getting in; possibly four. And again, this is where it starts getting dicey for the MIAC. We've seen this happen before and my fear is that it COULD happen again. But, we need to see how things unfold here first before we break out the proverbial panic button.
MIAC - Okay, so let's talk about us for a bit. We know that right now, it's a two-horse race between GAC at 16-2 in conference play (19-2 overall) and Concordia at 15-3 in conference play (18-3 overall). Now, GAC will already most likely have a win over a regionally-ranked opponent in UW-Stout whom they beat handily in their opening game of the season over in Menominee. The win over Simpson initially looked to be huge but the Storm have struggled mightily this season so that one won't do the Gusties any good. One the minus side, GAC does have one "bad" loss on its ledger as well when Bethel beat them in St. Peter shortly after the first of the year. But, I think all in all, the Gusties are in relatively solid shape and should have a bid sewn up if they make it to the MIAC Championship Game which I believe they will. Concordia on the other hand is kind of a tricky proposition. To be sure, they will have one regionally-ranked win in their pocket with that win over GAC at Memorial Auditorium back on 11-26. Plus, they have that thrilling double-overtime win over Amherst right before the first of the year when the Mammoths were #6 in the country. But, with Amherst struggling a bit this season (currently at 15-7 overall), how much does that win mean now in the big picture? That's what we don't know right now. My best guess right now is that IF the Cobbers make it to the MIAC Championship Game (presumably at GAC) and lose the rubber match to the Gusties in a tough one, they SHOULD be in good shape for a bid. BUT, they will also have to hope that these other conference tournaments (nee, the ARC and WIAC) go according to plan because if chaos ensues at either of those settings, then you have what-might-have-been-a-conference-champion possibly eating up an at-large bid that you were counting on scenario. I've seen it happen so many times before I can't keep count. Best advice I can give to coaches (and players) here: Take care of business where you can and the rest (SHOULD) take care of itself.
And I will have a review of the first Regional Rankings when they're unveiled. Until then, break out the popcorn for Wednesday night for the Showdown In St. Peter!
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