It seems like it's been forever since we've had a normal six-team format for the MIAC Playoffs (you have to go back to 2020 before the pandemic reared its ugly head) and admittedly it makes my job a bit easier this time around. Either way, it's always fun when we get into this time of the year as there's always a lot of nervousness and anticipation and hope and this year is definitely no different. So what do you say we give this thing a try again. I'll start as I always do; with the sixth seed and work my way up to the top. So let's get it started shall we?
6. St. Olaf - The Oles entrance into this little party has been a long-waited event as they last made the MIAC Playoffs back in 2014 so, yeah, it's been a while. But third-year Head Coach Kelly Mahlum has slowly brought this team along since her arrival in Northfield and they finished strong down the stretch; winning six of their last seven games; including the dramatic win this last Saturday against St. Kate's in a winner-take-all scenario where they got down by 20 + and battled their way back. I think it's quite fair to say that this St. Olaf team may very well be the best team you've never heard of. They haven't garnered a lot of attention this season save for the surprises they did pull off along the way - getting a sweep of Bethel and splitting the season series with Hamline and putting a scare into Concordia back in late January. They're led by none other than senior forward Rachel Kelly (who could arguably make her own case for MIAC POY considerations) at 17.0 ppg and fellow senior combo guard/forward Grace Hegland at 10.0 ppg is the perfect compliment to the Ole front line. Then opponents also have to worry about rising sophomore combo guard/forward Paige Yagodinski (10.0 ppg) getting hot from behind the arc with her unorthodox three-point shooting style. We know this team can be incredibly dangerous with its ability to score and we obviously know that they do have the ability to battle back when the chips are down as we saw this last Saturday at St. Kate's. Perhaps just as important, they also rank second in the MIAC at rebounding margin by a plus 5.9. A figure that alone can be very important this time of year. The bad thing of it is (and really for any sixth seed anyway), is that you're going to be facing huge odds of doing the almost-impossible on the road in not-so-friendly environments and sooner or later, this will almost invariably do the Oles in.
Sure sign of trouble - Kelly is the heart and soul of this team and having her get into foul trouble early would be an almost sure death sentence for them. And even without that element she's going to need help from both Hegland, Yagodinski and senior guard Cassie Fix.
5. Bethel - I don't think it was unreasonable at all to have had high hopes for the Royals at the beginning of the 2022-23 season and even though they stumbled out of the opening gate a little bit, they seemed to recover enough to give you the idea that they would at the very least be a factor in the MIAC race. To be sure, they did pull off that 70-66 upset of GAC down in St. Peter shortly after the first of the year but not long after that, things started unraveling for the Royals - both on and off the court. First, Head Coach Jon Herbrechtsmeyer had to step away for the rest of the season due to health issues and although Bethel's been in good hands with Interim Head Coach Scott Lauinger, the youth factor on this squad started to show. After a five-game win streak in January, the Royals lost eight of their last nine regular season games and were probably fortunate to snare the fifth seed after this un-Bethel like tailspin. The modus operandi of this team hasn't changed; they're still a very defensive-minded squad that uses its defense to fuel opportunities on the offensive end. But even when those opportunities have presented themselves, they haven't been able to - for whatever reason -always cash in. To be sure, if you check team offense stats, you'll see the Royals dead last of all the six playoff teams at 58.9 ppg and even though they finished the conference sixth in overall defense, obviously you'd like to have a little more balance here. Although sophomore guard and former Becker standout Courtney Nuest could very well turn out to be the best on-ball defender in the conference, she's also had to shoulder the scoring load for a good chunk of the season as her 11.5 ppg would suggest. Another shocker that caught my eye when I started drilling down into some more stats: Bethel finished ninth in the conference in combined team rebounds and you just know that that cannot be a positive thing as you go into the MIAC Playoffs. Someone, whoever it is, is going to have to step up and make things happen offensively and if you asked me right now who that might be, I wouldn't have a clue.
Sure sign of trouble - Not terribly hard to figure out here.....If the Royals can't get some semblance of offense going, this is going to be a short-lived affair for them.
4. CSB - To say that the Bennies have been something of an enigma this season would probably be the understatement of the year. I knew when I got to watch one of their early practices this season that this team had a ton of potential and could easily factor into the MIAC conference race. But ever since just before Christmas time with their strong showing out in Hawaii that included a win over perennial powerhouse DePauw, to say that the rest of the season was an up-and-down roller coaster ride would be the best way to describe things. You just never knew what your were going to get from this team from one outing to the next. A tough loss at St. Kate's followed by a tough win at SMU. A big win over St. Olaf followed by three consecutive losses to Concordia, GAC and Hamline. Beating SMU at home on one night and then getting upended by Macalester in St. Paul. That best describes CSB's season right there - inconsistent. Now, to be sure, they do have a very potent and prolific backcourt duo of junior guard Carla Meyer (14.8 ppg) and sophomore Sophia Jonas (12.8 ppg). It's a bit weird too because you look at the conference statistics and you see that CSB does reasonably well in both team offense and team defense; about right in the middle of the pack which isn't bad. If there could be one thing I could point at, the team FT percentage is at 0.673 and that has to be an irritant to Head Coach Mike Durbin. In the end, I think you simply have to go back to the consistency issue for this team and that'll likely be their undoing when it's all said and done.
Sure sign of trouble - They need scoring production from both Meyer and Jonas for sure but there's a part of me too that thinks that both sophomore forward Olivia Boily and senior post Tori Szathmary are going to both have to be extraordinary if the Bennies are to have a real chance in this thing.
3. Hamline - The Pipers' stock has been on the rise as Head Coach Alex Focke has brought this program along quite nicely since taking the reigns six years ago. This Hamline team could easily be described as a high-octane, both barrels a' blazing, bombs away offense that can get points in bunches. And the Pipers arguably do have the pieces to unload an artillery barrage on opponents. Electric junior forward Lydia Lecher is quite the player to watch and she leads the team with her 13.0 ppg but Hamline has so many other weapons that can step up and deliver. Any smart opponent has got to know that you'd better be on the lookout for junior guard Larisa O'Neil who can be an absolute terror from behind the arc as can fellow junior guard Michaela Stamer. Senior guard Chan'el Anderson-Manning is as smart and experienced as they come and fellow senior backcourt mate Alyssa Williamson is as steady as they come and she never gets the credit she deserves. Bolstering the Pipers is a core of young and up-and-coming players such as sophomore guard Kate Trachsel, sophomore forward Faith Johnson, freshman guard Sophie Stork and fellow freshman guard and former Centennial standout Camille Cummings. So not only does Focke have a pretty solid and reliable primary chain gang, he's got a pretty decent supporting cast to go along with that. What was surprising to me is that Hamline actually ranks second in total team defense; holding opponents to an average of 55.8 ppg. But, the rebounding front is a bit of a different story where Hamline is ranked seventh in the conference with a 0.5 rebounding margin. Logic would suggest that that won't cut it and it could easily by the Pipers downfall when it's all said and done. Yet, if the stars align just right, this squad is capable of doing the unthinkable - even if the odds are stacked against them.
Sure sign of trouble - With this team, it will really come down to three-point shooting. If they're not falling and especially if they get forced into a slower-paced half-court game, Hamline is in BIG trouble.
2. Concordia - After faltering badly last season, Head Coach Kim Wagers and her Concordia Cobbers have FINALLY got the program back into the elite group of the MIAC once again and it's really good to see. There's just a lot to really like about this team in so many different ways. They've been in situations where they've had to bail themselves out of trouble (see vs CSB at home and then at St. Kate's on the road) and I think this is a group that really believes in itself and that big win they had out in Vegas against Amherst went a long way in fueling the confidence for this group. The Cobbers have a prolific group of players who can step up to the plate and deliver in the clutch but perhaps no one better in the conference than senior guard Emily Beseman (14.9 ppg) who has my vote for MIAC POY honors and she does get help from both sophomore guard Carlee Sieben (12.1 ppg) and strong sophomore forward Makayla Anderson (11.2 ppg) and Anderson leads the team in rebounds as well with her 8.2 rebounding average. When you look at it, Concordia is right up there with top-seeded GAC when it comes to team offense (70.6 ppg) and their margin of victory per game (12.1). Now, if the Cobbers could JUST play a little defense now and then. They've arguably been a bit permissive on this front and they're about smack dab in the middle in the MIAC defensive statistics holding opponents to an average of 58.4 ppg which isn't bad but......I think you kind of know where I'm going with this. We saw them get into big holes with both CSB and St. Kate's and it was Beseman's heroics that bailed them out of trouble. Could they do that again in a similar situation in the MIAC Playoffs? And, keep in mind, of all the teams in the MIAC Playoffs, Concordia is the one team with the most to lose in all of this because they may very well have to wind up doing the almost unthinkable and win the MIAC Championship Game to snare the AQ and get into the Big Dance because they may not have a strong enough SOS outside of that to get in (I'll have more on that later obviously). So, make no mistake about it. The pressure is on them and they're going to have to deliver. It's that simple.
Sure sign of trouble - There aren't a lot of problems with this team aside from the aforementioned defensive issues but we've seen this team play with matches more than once this season and I don't think they can afford to do that at all this time around. And I would go as far as to say that both Anderson and fellow front court mate sophomore forward Symone Beld are both going to have to step up and collectively say "No more!" to MIAC opponents (including the next team I'll talk about).
1. GAC - Ahhh, happy times down on US Highway 169 and the Union Pacific's Mankato Sub mainline in St. Peter as the Gusties have put together an impressive 23-2 overall record (that could arguably be and perhaps should be 25-0) and a 20-2 conference record to snare the program's first-ever outright MIAC regular season title and the first seed in the MIAC Playoffs that goes along with it. There haven't been many slip-ups at all this year and other than the inexplicable home loss to Bethel right after the first of the year and that loss to aforementioned Concordia up in Moorhead back in late November, it's been smooth sailing for Head Coach Laurie Kelly and her staff. Just like Concordia, there's simply so much to like about this team. Great leadership, great balance on both ends of the floor, a defense that can stifle opponents and a pretty solid supporting cast. With GAC, you have three backcourt players who average double figures on the scoring front. Senior guard Anna Sanders leads the way with her 12.8 ppg and she gets plenty of help along the way too with junior guard Emma (not evil) Kniefel (10.2 ppg) and sophomore point guard and former Maple Grove standout Kylie Baranick (10.1 ppg). This is a team that doesn't necessarily have to lean on its three-point shooting but when they do get open looks, they can bury them as well as anyone - especially Sanders and Baranick. Did I mention rebounding? This is where the MIAC's most under-appreciated player, senior Grace Benz, excels leading the team with her 7.0 rebounds per game and if she ever needs help on the front line, she can always rely on sophomore forward Rachel Kawiecki who can box out opponents into neighboring states. Here's the thing with GAC: If you look at total team offense, total team defense and margin of victory among MIAC teams, the Gusties win all of these categories hands down and in margin of victory, it's not even close. They're first in the conference in both team FG percentage and opponent FG percentage AND in team 3-point FG percentage. Maybe the only category where they're down is opponent 3-point FG percentage but if I'm GAC, hell, I'll take my chances with that. The bottom line here is that there just aren't very many weaknesses with this team and given their experience from last season where they came out of nowhere to snatch the program's first-ever MIAC Championship Game victory, the smart money rides on the Gusties. They seem like they're on a mission and they can go a long way after the MIAC Playoffs are said and done.
Sure sign of trouble - It's hard to point out many flaws with this team and it's really difficult to envision this team having any kind of letdown so I may leave this one up to the readers to come up with something. Good luck on that front.
So there you have it. Let's get this party started and feel free to fire away with thoughts.
No comments:
Post a Comment