MIAC Playoff Preview 2-19-18

It's that time of the year again and so incredibly hard to believe that yet another MIAC regular season has concluded.  Yet, here we are and it's time to zoom in and take a closer look at the upcoming MIAC Playoffs.  There have been a few strange twists and turns this season as there always seem to be but there are also the usual cast of characters that you have come to know and love as well.  With that said, let's take a look at the teams and handicap their chances:


6.  St. Kate's - Back in January, it's unlikely that anyone would have thought that the Wildcats would even get themselves into position to have a chance at making the six-team field; much less actually making it in.  Yet, a strong finish that saw them win five of their last seven games - including the big win at Augsburg this last week - gave St. Kate's the tie-breaking edge to claim the sixth spot.  Given all the injuries that the Wildcats have suffered this season, most notably to seniors Alexis Garcia and Audra Clark, new Head Coach Don Mulhern and his staff needed his younger players to step in and hope that they could contribute.  Yet, that's exactly what happened down the stretch.  The one player that has really come of age after recovering from her ankle injury earlier in the season is sophomore forward Danica Cambrice who has simply been phenomenal as of late; averaging 19.5 ppg and getting 6.7 rebounds per game as well.  To be sure, the other half of the Kenyon-Wanamingo twin sister duo; senior guard Meg Clark, has held up her end of the bargain with great leadership and production on both ends of the floor and sophomore guard Jackie Radford has come into her own with her toughness and scoring ability as she averages 8.3 ppg.  But the real story here, IMHO, has been all the young faces that have stepped up as of late as freshmen Bailee Sillman, Morgan Kurth, Ashley Fosness, Jaelyn Miltz, Mackenzie Dettman, Kaitlyn Struemke and sophomore Emma Nelson have all been able to give quality minutes this season.  The 'Cats 12-13 overall record may not put the fear of God into anyone yet St. Kate's is easily the most dangerous team lurking in this six-team field and the one team that nobody wants to have to face if they don't have to.  They have absolutely nothing to lose here and everything to gain and there isn't one team in this field that they're scared of or not capable of beating when they play their absolute best - including mighty UST.  And with a great coach like Mulhern leading the way, I wouldn't put anything past this squad.  Sure, their margin for error is small but they're more than willing to roll the dice.

Sure sign of trouble - God forbid should Cambrice go down with an injury.  They need her to lead the way.  It's as simple as that.


5.  SMU - The Cardinals definitely made amends for last season's disappointing finish by winning eight of their last eleven games of the regular season and to finish with a 15-10 overall record and 10-8 in MIAC play - good enough to snare the fifth spot in the MIAC playoffs.  I was only able to catch SMU in action only once this season so I'm unable to offer a lot of opinions on them although Head Coach Brent Pollari feels that this squad's best days are ahead of them and I would generally agree with that statement.  Not surprisingly, junior forward Brandi Blattner leads the Cardinal attack with her 17.4 ppg and she's also a force on the boards as well averaging ten rebounds a game.  Senior guard Alexa Huisman can be a scoring force with her 12.8 ppg.  The rest of the SMU roster and their ability to make things happen remains a bit of a mystery in my mind and it's difficult for me to envision a scenario where they would upset the apple cart here and throw things into total disarray.  Yet you'd be smart not to sleep on this team and you can bet that Bethel; their quarterfinal opponent on Tuesday night, isn't. 

Sure sign of trouble - Blattner had bloody well better avoid foul trouble early on because without her in the equation, this is an entirely different team altogether.


4.  Bethel - It's been the best of times - and the worst of times for the Royals this season.  Head Coach Jon Herbrechtsmeyer's squad registered what was likely their biggest signature win when they knocked off NWC powerhouse George Fox at Robertson Center back during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.  What the Royals likely couldn't have counted on, however, was an absolutely stunning and devastating loss to neighboring and UMAC opponent Northwestern at Ericksen Center four days later.  Throw in road losses to both UST and CSB right after that and the wind that Bethel had in their sail had suddenly gone out.  They did get a big home win versus GAC in January but also lost to CSB at home and got thumped by GAC down in St. Peter last weekend.  They come into the MIAC playoffs with an 18-7 overall record but naturally they feel that it could be much better than this and, as such, they're left with the daunting prospect of having to win the MIAC Playoffs to snare the automatic bid if they hope to get into the Big Dance.  Yet this squad is capable of doing just that if they play their cards right.  The Royals have great senior leadership and very balanced scoring to boot with junior post Hannah Johnson leading the way with her 15.2 ppg.  Sophomore forward enforcer Taite Anderson and senior guard Abby Miller are right behind averaging 14.1 and 13.4 ppg, respectively as well.  This is also a team that knows how to play defense and rebound; particularly Johnson with her 10.1 rebounds per game.  In my mind, what makes this team so good is how well they play together and their overall experience.  Just as important, IMHO, Bethel is the one team that matches up better with UST more than anybody and they're definitely not afraid of them. 

Sure sign of trouble - How well do the Royals respond to pressure, knowing full and well that their lifelines are all used up? 


3.  GAC - Considering the joyride that the Gusties enjoyed last year, this year has mirrored Bethel's season in many ways.  For the most part, yes, GAC has been relatively strong this season finishing up with a 20-5 overall record and a 14-4 MIAC record.  Yet if there's one thing that seems to define the Gusties - especially the last couple of years if not, hell, the last 15 years - is their inability to win the Big One.  They were swept by UST (surprise, surprise), lost their only meeting with CSB this season and had to settle for a split with Bethel as well.  And they lost a huge game down in Waverly, Iowa right before the first of the year with WIAC powerhouse UW-Whitewater.  So at some point, GAC simply has to figure out a way to start winning these types of games.  What makes it frustrating for the GAC contingent (and undoubtedly Head Coach Laurie Kelly and her staff) is that they've got the goods to do it.  They're led by senior point guard Mikayla Miller who can be absolutely brilliant at times and she leads the way with her 17.3 ppg.  Senior forward Miranda Rice is right behind with her 16.9 ppg and Rice can box out and rebound as well.  Junior forward Kendall Thompson has slowly come into her own this year and freshman point guard Ava Gonsorowski has been a pleasant surprise thus far.  Junior reserves Brooke Lemke and Taylor Anderson are capable of providing quality minutes on both ends of the floor so the Gusties definitely do have some weapons.  The one thing that GAC lacks, IMHO, is a true post player and that forces Rice to shoulder a lot of the burden down low.  The Gusties are capable of winning this thing, certainly, but they have a lot to prove to the naysayers out there and they'll likely have to at least get to the MIAC Championship Game in order to receive a bid to the Big Dance.  They certainly can't afford to take St. Kate's lightly and they have to prove they can win a big one on the road at CSB in the semifinals. 

Sure sign of trouble - If Miller can't get the looks she wants on the perimeter to unleash three-point bombs or should Rice get bottled up down low, this team could be in a heap of trouble.


2.  CSB - What a year it's been for the Blazers as they posted their first twenty-plus win season since the 2009-10 season; going 22-3 overall and 16-2 in MIAC play; more than good enough to take the second seed.  A large part of this season's success has been the outstanding play of the senior trio of Niki Fokken, Kate Banovetz and Chelsey Guetter.  They'e all big and all very long and, not surprisingly, they can score as well; particularly Fokken and Guetter who average 13.8 and 10.1 ppg, respectively.  And I can't think of any other group that I would want to snare rebounds either.  Over the last few seasons, I wouldn't have given this team a snowball's chance in hades and even a mere month ago I had to question this team's toughness.  But CSB finally showed me the toughness and grit that I had been waiting to see from them for so long and they put a scare into UST in the regular season finale over at Schoenecker.  They're now not only capable of forcing the rematch with the Tommies but they're capable of getting over the top as well.  We all know about the three-headed monster of Fokken, Banovetz and Guetter but if there's one player that's really come on down the stretch of the regular season (other than St. Kate's Cambrice), it would have to be junior reserve guard/forward Breanna Gates.  She can be an absolute menace on defense and she knows her role on this team very well.  Another player on this Blazer roster who's caught my eye as of late is freshman guard Megan Thompson.  Thompson isn't necessarily a "go to" person when it comes to scoring but she proved this last Saturday against UST that she can light it up from behind the arc and woe to the team that lets her have open looks out on the perimeter.  Throw in the fact that this squad is led by seasoned Head Coach Mike Durbin who has literally seen it all in his 31 years at the helm in St. Joe and you have a team that is not only capable of winning this thing but also a squad that can make a lot of noise in the Big Dance as well.  And the one thing that I think gives CSB something of an edge is that they know they're in regardless of what happens this week so they should be able to play fairly relaxed without too much pressure.  But I also suspect that the Blazers won't be satisfied with just getting in either.   

Sure sing of trouble - Should Fokken/Guetter/Banovetz be somehow neutralized down low, then it's going to be up to the Blazers young backcourt duo of Thompson and sophomore Sidney Schiffler to bail them out. 


1.  UST - Geez.  The Tommies at the top - again?  No way!  Okay, okay, enough kidding aside.  This group has earned everything they've got to this point and to go through yet another MIAC regular season unblemished is no small feat.  To be sure, they endured a few scares late in the season; most notably from Augsburg when they were down by four with eight seconds left in regulation and somehow bailed themselves out of that mess to win in overtime.  Yet it's because of games such as this plus all the postseason play they've gone through in years past - including last year's run to the Final Four - that gives this great team an incredible edge in big games.  They never panic and they know what they have to do when the pressure is on and their 23-2 overall record suggests that.  One of the big reasons UST has been so good this season is because of junior post Hannah Spaulding who has been simply spectacular this season; averaging 19.9 ppg and 8.3 rebounds a game.  Fellow junior guard Lucia Renikoff can be a three-point terror and she's right behind Spaulding in scoring with 13.8 ppg.  And the senior leadership of guard Maddie Wolkow and Lauren Fischer is simply outstanding and they can both score as well.  Junior guard Kaylie Brazil has raised the level of her game this season and freshman Kaia Porter has been giving Head Coach Ruth Sinn solid minutes off the bench down the stretch.  Yet the Tommies suffered a potential huge blow when Spaulding went down with a concussion late in the game this last Saturday against CSB and as of this writing, it's uncertain what her availability status is.  Not that understudy sophomore post Elsa Anderson can't come in and do the job, but the Tommies long-term NCAA hopes would take a big hit without a healthy Spaulding.  You certainly have to give UST the best chance of winning this thing (again) but they seem to be a bit more vulnerable than they have in years past.  If there's one thing that likely keeps Sinn up some nights, it would be another team launching a hail of three-pointers on them like Luther did earlier in the season when they upset the Tommies at Schoenecker Arena and like Wartburg did two seasons ago in the NCAA Tournament. 

Sure sign of trouble - We'll just have to see about Spaulding's availability for this week but they're no doubt a different team should she not be able to go. 


So there you have it.  This should indeed be a fun week and I can't wait for it to get started!  Feel free to fire away with thoughts.